NEW DELHI: Exit polls predicted the NDA forming government easily. Yet no exit poll could predict the rout of UPA in both the Lok Sabha elections.
In the last two assessments forecasting 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, exit polls may have predicted the clear victory of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the national political player Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). However the exact numbers have been far from reality in predicting the tally of every major party or formation respectively.
Although, both exit polls in 2014 and 2019 predicted the NDA forming the government easily. Yet, the noteworthy thing among all the predictions was that no exit polls could predict the rout of UPA in both the Lok Sabha elections.
Talking about 2019, there were eight exit polls conducted. Starting from India Today-Axis My India, the channel predicted an overwhelming majority for the BJP-led NDA, which it said would win between 339 and 365 seats while the UPA was projected to win 77-108 seats. According to the channel, their methodology included surveying about 800,000 people across all constituencies. Another, News24-Todays Chanakya said that the NDA would win around 350 seats while the UPA would get around 95. Third survey, News18-IPSOS predicted 336 seats for the NDA in the 2019 polls. Their survey projected 82 seats for UPA and 124 seats for other parties.
According to the fourth channel Times Now-VMR, the NDA was projected to win around 306 seats while the UPA was to win 132 seats. The survey of fifth channel India TV-CNX estimated 300 seats (plus or minus 10 seats) for the NDA and 120 seats (plus or minus 5) for the UPA. ABP-CSDS survey had predicted 277 seats for the NDA and 130 seats for the UPA. And the India News-Polstrat predicted 287 seats for the NDA and 128 for the UPA. While as the CVoter had said that the NDA would get 287, and gave 128 for the UPA and the remaining seats for other parties. When the results came out, the BJP had pocketed 303 seats on its own and scored 353 under the NDA.
A political analyst said, “Exit polls are released when the last day of polling ends, as mandated by the Election Commission of India (ECI). If the exit polls were to come out before elections, it could influence voters’ decisions and they could vote for the winning side. Moreover, how reliable the exit polls are depends on several factors, like sample size, the amount of data collected, the design and structure of the questionnaire, and the methodology employed to analyse the data. In addition to that, the detailed guidelines for regulating exit polls are provided under Article 324 of the Constitution.”
Taking in view the exit polls of 2014 Lok Sabha elections; CNN-IBN, CSDS and Lokniti had predicted 276 for the NDA and 97 for the UPA and 148 for others. Another survey of India Today–Cicero had reckoned 272 for the NDA, 115 for the UPA and 156 for others. Third agency News 24–Chanakya had projected 340 for NDA, 70 for the UPA, and 133 for others.
Fourth surveyor Times Now–ORG had predicted 249 for theNDA, 148 for the UPA and 146 for others. Fifth organisation ABP News–Nielsen had projected 274 for NDA, 97 for UPA, and 165 for others. Sixth agency NDTV–Hansa Research had reckoned 279 for NDA, 103 for the UPA, and 161 for others. On the other side, the 2004 Lok Sabha poll predictions had turned out to be complete upside down. As almost all the exit polls gave NDA a clear edge over the UPA. The election results stunned all the pollsters as the UPA secured more numbers than the NDA and was successful in forming the coalition government.