Growing strategic competition with China, which has clearly turned more confrontational in recent times, likely to be the primary focus of US foreign policy.
The formal inauguration of Joe Biden as the 46th President of the United States of America put to rest a tumultuous transition of power, unprecedented in US history. The whole world watched in disbelief and dismay as a violent mob of Trump supporters, who refused to accept the electoral verdict, stormed the US Capitol, the seat of American democracy. Now that President Biden has officially taken the oath of office, and the reins of governing the United States, it is worthwhile assessing what lies ahead for America’s ties with the rest of the world. President Biden will be confronting many challenges at home, such as regenerating a pandemic hit economy and reconciling a politically divided America. Nevertheless, the world outside will be equally challenging for President Biden. From dealing with China’s increasing aggression to playing the end game in Afghanistan, from handling the complicated ties with Russia to revisiting relations with Iran and to recouping a battered American image. More significantly, many of these challenges will have a bearing on the course of India-US relations.
Utmost on the radar screen of US foreign policy will be its growing strategic competition with China, which has clearly turned more confrontational in recent times. The US national security strategy, defence strategy as well as military strategy have categorically called its strategic competition with a “near peer competitor” China as America’s primary threat. China’s aggressive behaviour through militarisation of space in the South China Sea, its “wolf warrior” diplomacy and military aggression along the India-China border has raised concerns among the policymaking elites in the United States and a number of other like-minded countries. In this context, what direction the US-China relationship will take in the Biden administration will remain a pertinent question.
Afghanistan stands at a critical juncture, as the Biden administration takes charge in Washington. The dice was rolled when the Trump administration signed the peace deal with Taliban in Qatar early last year, paving way for the treacherous intra-Afghan talks. There will be continuity in terms of eventually reducing American troop presence in Afghanistan, and focusing more on leaner force presence devoted to counter-terrorism operations coupled with reconciliation activities, something that Joe Biden preferred while serving as Vice President. The future of Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan and the contours of US-Pakistan ties will be an important development to watch. Even as Pakistan continued to play a dubious role in the war on terror, inviting criticism from a number of US policymakers, the United States has often been found wanting in its resolve and intent to extricate itself from its Pakistan tangle. Afghanistan will remain a challenge for the Biden administration especially when Taliban is not showing any signs of adhering to the obligations made in all the peace dialogues.
Another foreign policy challenge that stares at the face of the Biden presidency is the one concerning with Iran. Iran has always featured in the list of American adversaries since the Islamic revolution in 1979. The animosity increased substantially because of the divergences over Iran’s controversial nuclear programme. The Obama administration was able to come up with a multilateral negotiation with Iran, which resulted in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). However, the Trump administration abrogating JCPOA and the killing of Iranian commandeer Qasem Soleimani have brought US-Iran tensions to its height. As such, despite his best intentions, to what extent President Biden and his team can recalibrate the relationship with Iran will remain crucial.
A number of other foreign policy challenges will persist for the Biden administration, including managing its complex relationship with Russia, more particularly, over the future of US-Russia arms control understanding. Moreover, the broader question of moving ahead and managing ties with American allies remains a matter of importance. As President Biden said in his inaugural speech, “We will repair our alliances and engage with the world once again.” Furthermore, with the former Secretary of State John Kerry entrusted to lead America’s climate change diplomacy, following Trump’s questionable approach to the issue, it will be worthwhile watching America’s steps in this regard.
Besides the bilateral issues in the India-US relationship, how the Biden administration approaches these foreign policy questions will be of consequence to India’s dealings with the United States. India has a complex relationship with China; its role in Afghanistan is crucial, it has deep ties with Iran as well as Russia, has a pivotal role to play in the Indo-Pacific in partnership with the United States and is an inevitable factor in the global drive against climate change. The broader arc of stability in India-US relationship, the election of Kamala Devi Harris as Vice President and the appointment of a number of Indian Americans in the Biden administration have given much optimism and expectations as far as India-US relationship is concerned. However, India will need to be pragmatic and forward looking, in terms of how it can leverage its multifaceted relationship with the United States for securing its national, regional and global interest.
The United States’ key focus on remaining the leader of advances in science and technology will obviously see how it will keep continuing negotiating from a position of strength with the rest of the world. Its increasing presence in outer space will provide a distinct edge from the rest of the world. The US will face impediment in maximising its interests undoubtedly in a multipolar world system. The challenges which the US allies confronted during President Trump’s administration will have to be addressed by President Biden. The trust deficit between the United States and its allies will be needed to be bridged. Hopefully, President Biden would be able to help their allies in regaining confidence.
The question arises whether President Biden would be successful in bringing back the United States as a preeminent power especially in the context of its acceptance as a world leader. This is a major part of the debate among the academic community of the US. President Biden has the good experience of understanding the complexities of the global system as Vice President for eight years. The reversal of President Obama’s policies by Trump on a number of pertinent areas impacting global peace, stability and climate change had weakened the US role in global affairs. The international community will have to watch every move of President Joe Biden in the next four years.
Arvind Kumar is Professor at School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi.
Monish Tourangbam is Assistant Professor at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, MAHE, Manipal.