One big picture that emerges is India’s growing role with the US in the Asia-Pacific and Central Asia.
New Delhi: Even while he and his NDA government battle the Opposition and public protests at home, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government scored a diplomatic victory overseas in the United States.
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar concluded their 2+2 strategic dialogue with their US counterparts—Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper—in Washington DC on Wednesday, promising further strengthening of India-US strategic ties and the intense deliberation from both sides on multi-sectoral strategic areas of cooperation.
South Asia experts in Washington DC see the meeting as a “big positive signal to Indo-US relations, which will battle out Indian domestic protests at home and US President Donald Trump’s impeachment saga”.
The partnership has been on the upswing since the multiple-platform meetings of PM Modi and US President Donald Trump in the recent months, which was followed with five ministerial-level visits between the two sides, apart from institutionalized dialogues and parliamentary exchanges, reflecting the intensity of the engagement.
On Wednesday, the two sides agreed on many strategic issues connected to South Asia, Asia-Pacific and India-US strategic cooperation in areas of foreign policy and defence cooperation, partnership on counter-terrorism efforts to disaster management and using US technology and scientific expertise to realise PM Modi’s new mission—save water. Most significant, India gets US support on the Chabahar project, which will immensely benefit Afghanistan and establish India as a strategic partner in the Kabul development process along with the US.
Overall, as say South Asia experts and India watchers in DC-reputed think tanks, “Leaders of both sides are set to take the Modi-Trump `Houston Hug’ to the next high level, assuring India’s larger role in strategic global dynamics with the US as a key partner”.
One big picture that emerges is India’s growing role with the US in the Asia-Pacific and Central Asia, managing its regional security and its development. “Among the key issues that we discussed today was the Indo-Pacific, including ways to leverage our respective strengths to benefit not just our two countries but the entire region. Our cooperation is aimed at advancing a free, open, inclusive, peaceful, and prosperous Indo-Pacific based on the recognition of ASEAN centrality,” Dr Jaishankar said after their meeting got over in Washington DC on Wednesday.
A top India expert like Richard M. Rossow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) sees a big “positive outcome” from the meeting. Rossow, who keenly follows India and whose CSIS hosted Dr Jaishankar after the UNGA, told The Sunday Guardian: “The fact that such a high-powered meeting happened even when our respective leaders are under political pressure is a strong sign that we can make progress even with India’s domestic unrest and the American impeachment saga. The longer-term importance of US-India ties as China increasingly exerts influence across the Indo-Pacific is enough to ensure continued momentum in US-India security cooperation.”
Another South Asia expert, Michael Kugelman of the Woodrow Wilson Center, agrees. Kugelman told The Sunday Guardian: “The big picture objective was to showcase the strength of the relationship and its continued potential for growth. The big picture takeaway was mission accomplished—the dialogue clearly achieved this objective.” The dialogue, says Kugelman, “will help facilitate better defence trade partnership”.
“Defence trade has long been a pillar of cooperation, and this latest 2+2, particularly with the inking of an industrial security agreement, will facilitate more commercial trade in defence,” Kugelman said.
Rossow elaborates the defence partnership opportunities, signalling a win-win situation for India. “A stronger strategic partnership should help US defence firms win deals. India certainly does not make its defence procurement decisions based solely on bilateral ties, but once US-India strategic ties began to add real depth—notably through the 2005 announcement of the Civilian Nuclear Deal—American defence firms have started to win substantial deals. We have multiple pending deals including carrier-launched fighter aircraft; armed drones; more maritime patrol aircraft; and potentially a new Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft program. So there are some real opportunities on the table,” Rossow said.
Besides, globally, it signals a larger message. Kugelman says: “Since India wants to be viewed as a rising power, there’s something to be said for being able to showcase to the world that two of its senior officials were meeting together with their counterparts from the world’s sole superpower. The 2+2 dialogue, in effect, demonstrates how New Delhi has a prominent seat at the global high table. The optics are very good for India.”
There was something striking for many interested in India affairs. As says Kugelman, “It’s still business as usual for US-India ties. Despite new tensions arising from recent US criticism of India on Kashmir and on its new citizenship law, these matters were largely minimised at the summit, with much of the focus on the issues—maritime security, energy cooperation and above all defence trade—that have fuelled the partnership over the last few years.”
To Rossow, India has benefited, surely. “Such as getting increased access to Central Command; the signing of the Industrial Security Annex (ISA), which will boost defence cooperation with India’s private sector; new Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) projects; and more.”
On terrorism, the two sides promise intensive cooperation and US is aligning with India as a “friend” in the region and signals at more funds cut to Pakistan. The US has dramatically reduced security assistance to Pakistan, has initiated new agreements to deepen intelligence cooperation with India, and is sharing terror watch lists with India.
Kugelman, who takes a special interest in India-Pakistan relations, says, “There was a fair amount of talk on Pakistan-based terrorism, which serves to reinforce a key shared interest in expunging said terrorism. We hear so much about how it is a shared concern about China’s rise that propels the relationship forward. But there are other shared interests too, like counterterrorism.”
The experts are intrigued as how the two sides are going to ensure a high-level defence partnership, with India maintaining its traditional defence ties with Russia. To Rossow, the situation “concerns the US”. He says: “Yes, the United States administration is incredibly concerned with India’s continued reliance on Russia for major defence systems. The potential applications of US sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) looms in the near-horizon. More than anything else, these sanctions could derail US-India security cooperation. Neither side has yet shown interest in shifting positions.”
But to Kugelman, there is a hope still. “India’s relations with Russia, and particularly the S-400 deal, will remain a bone of contention for US-India ties, no matter what might have come up at the 2+2. With New Delhi committed to the deal, the ball will be in Washington’s court—will it sanction India or will it make an exception for its key partner? I would bet on the latter, but one never knows.”
It seems like India is sailing strongly, for now!