Although the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) has unleashed a high-octane campaign against the current Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy, an independent survey suggests that TDP may not be able to defeat the ruling YSRCP owing to several popular public welfare schemes offered by the incumbent CM.
According to the survey, consisting of around 10,000 samples in each constituency of 175 seats, the ruling party may be able to retain about 100 seats. An insider said, “According to the data, the ruling YSRCP may win from 100 to 110 assembly seats, and in Lok Sabha, it could retain 19 seats.” The state has 25 Lok Sabha seats.
The party sources suggest that there might be conflicting interest between Pawan Kalyan (who heads Jana Sena) and Chandrababu Naidu (TDP chief) that could create an imbalance in the opposition front against the YSRCP as both the leaders aspire to become the CM face in the upcoming assembly polls.
A political analyst in the state said, “Such conflicting interests could hurt their electoral prospects. There is no way that Chandrababu Naidu will leave the top position for Pawan Kalyan. Not only that, he knows that if he cedes the position to Kalyan there will be no reckoning of his son (Nara Lokesh) afterwards. So he would want to advance his son rather than Kalyan.”
There is also one contention among party insiders that BJP has continued to back Jagan despite several hurdles faced by the YSRCP. Another political analyst said, “BJP knows which party to support, they always support the winning party or have an alliance with them. Yet the support has been both ways. Jagan has supported the bills in Parliament tabled by BJP and in return BJP has not pushed Central agencies against him. Again, BJP comprehends that in the upcoming Lok Sabha and Assembly elections Jagan may emerge as the front runner against the two parties of Pawan Kalyan and Chandrababu Naidu.”
The person who has conducted surveys in around a dozen states said, “Jagan may not have done well on the infrastructure front. Which could be evident. But if we compare all the schemes launched by different states in India, Jagan’s schemes stand distinct. Recently, there was quite a hullabaloo about then Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s schemes in Rajasthan but Jagan’s schemes are better than his schemes as well. What Gehlot did in the last one year Jagan has been doing it in the last 5 years. So he might see a second term. Yes, he may not get as many seats as he got last time, but it does look like he will sail over the magic numbers.”
YSRCP enjoys solid support from the two Dalit communities of Mallas and Madigas who constitute around 14% of the total population. In AP, there are around 17% Dalits and more than 85% Dalits belong to the two communities.
The YSR Congress party had won the Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections with a landslide majority in 2019. The party won more than 150 seats out of the 175-member Assembly inflicting a humiliating defeat to N. Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party. The TDP managed to win just 24 seats.