President Biden named America’s closest friends and said that he had spoken to them to resume the habit of cooperation and to rebuild the muscles of democratic alliances that have atrophied on account of neglect and abuse. Since India is only a friend and not an ally, India was not mentioned in this context.
As the contours of President Joe Biden’s foreign policy emerge through his statements, including his address at the State Department, the executive orders he has issued so far and the statements of his newly appointed Cabinet members, it is clear that it is only the China factor in the Indo-Pacific region, which will make India flash on his emergency radar. Though he did not refer to India or the Indo-Pacific, the new US Defence Secretary, General Lloyd Austin said that he would further operationalize India’s Major Defence Partner status through the Quad security dialogue and other multilateral engagements.
In his first address at the State Department, with his Secretary State on his side, President Biden waded into the deeper side of foreign policy waters with clear and precise formulations on China, Russia, Myanmar, the pandemic, climate crisis and nuclear non-proliferation. He outlined several measures to meet “this new moment of advancing authoritarianism, including the growing ambitions of China to rival the United States and the determination of Russia to damage and disrupt our democracy”. In the many issues he outlined, India did not figure.
Speaking of the newest and unexpected crisis in Burma (US generally uses the old name of the country) Biden said that he had concerns about the situation in Burma and said, “There can be no doubt: In a democracy, force should never seek to overrule the will of the people or attempt to erase the outcome of a credible election. The Burmese military should relinquish power they have seized, release the advocates and activists and officials they have detained, lift the restrictions on telecommunications, and refrain from violence. The US will work with its partners to support restoration of democracy and the rule of law, and impose consequences on those responsible.” This position places India immediately in a position, which is not supportive of the US objectives.
President Biden named America’s closest friends and said that he had spoken to them to resume the habit of cooperation and to rebuild the muscles of democratic alliances that have atrophied on account of neglect and abuse. “America’s alliances are our greatest asset, and leading with diplomacy means standing shoulder-to-shoulder with our allies and key partners once again.” Since India is only a friend and not an ally, India was not mentioned in this context.
Among the adversaries, he named Russia first by mentioning the extension of the START Treaty for five years, adding that the United States will not tolerate “Russia’s aggressive actions—interfering with our elections, cyberattacks, poisoning its citizens.” With India’s relations with Russia being what they are, we cannot be expected to endorse the strong position President Biden has taken on Russia.
The strongest words were reserved for China, “our most serious competitor” and said that he would take on directly the challenges posed by China to US security, prosperity, and democratic values. “We’ll confront China’s economic abuses; counter its aggressive, coercive action; to push back on China’s attack on human rights, intellectual property, and global governance.” He, however, expressed readiness to work with Beijing, wherever it suited American interests. The kind of punch that President Trump delivered to China in the context of China’s global threat, including in the Himalayas, was notably absent, but there was no doubt that India would be a strategic partner in Asia.
President Biden has pledged that he will continue the Trump policy on China, perhaps the only issue on which he agrees with Trump. The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, has indicated that “President Joe Biden will continue with the policies of the Trump administration vis-a-vis China, including issues related to the maritime disputes over Beijing’s assertiveness in the South China Sea, the Indo-Pacific and the strategic approach to step up defence ties with the Quad member countries, comprising India, the US, Japan and Australia. China considers the Quad as an anti-Beijing alliance.” This is an opportunity for India to cement relations, if India does not shy away from the alliance approach.
President Biden reiterated his commitment to the Paris Agreement and pledged to integrate climate objectives across all of diplomacy and raise the ambition of the US on climate targets. “That way, we can challenge other nations, other major emitters, to up the ante on their own commitments,” he said and added that he would host a climate summit this year. Here, as “a major emitter”, if per capita emission is not taken into account, India would be a target rather than a partner because of our constraints to continue coal and fossil fuels for some more time to come.
President Biden announced the appointment of a Deputy National Security Adviser for Cyber and Emerging Technologies. As another measure of course correction of foreign policy, the military footprint of the country will be appropriately aligned with foreign policy and national security priorities. India seems to think on these lines when we speak of securitisation of foreign policy. Restoration of alliances and halting of troop withdrawals from Germany will be at the centre of his security policy.
In a major decision with implications for his relations with Saudi Arabia, he announced that the catastrophic war in Yemen would be ended, giving some comfort to Iran. He would end all American support for offensive operations in the war in Yemen, including relevant arms sales. He quickly added, however, that he will continue to support and help Saudi Arabia defend its sovereignty and its territorial integrity and its people. He cannot forget that one of the factors that cemented US-Saudi Arabia relations was the huge arms purchases by Saudi Arabia. The new policy on Yemen will not be at the expense of the close links with Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries.
Declaring that US diplomacy is also back in full force, President Biden stressed that it was the right thing to do to do for the world in order to live in peace, security, and prosperity. By strengthening alliances, the US would amplify its power as well as its ability to disrupt threats before they can reach the US shores. The US will invest in economic development of countries, it will create new markets for its products and reduce the likelihood of instability, violence, and mass migrations. When it strengthens health systems in far regions of the world, it reduces the risk of future pandemics that can threaten its people and its economy. “America cannot afford to be absent any longer on the world stage,” said President Biden, hinting at benign interventions around the world, which may not be welcomed in many countries, including India.
The successive US governments have solicited India’s support in dealing with Iran, quoting our traditional friendship with that country, but more to ask them to behave rather than help in the negotiations. But there was no hint of it in US statements on Iran. But if difficulties arise during the future negotiations on the JCPOA, India may come under pressure to back the West. The new links that China has developed with Iran may be another factor in American expectations of India over Iran. Some hard choices will confront India in the event of aggravation of the Iran situation.
Happily, there are no major bilateral issues between India and the United States. On immigration, policies announced by Biden are in the right direction without any quid pro quo from India and competent Indian work force may benefit from the removal of national quotas for H1-B visas and the opening of a pathway for legitimacy for illegal immigrants. Trade issues will take a while to resolve, but that is an ongoing exercise with very little political sensitivity at this stage.
Clearly, the whole idea of looking at the Biden Administration through the prism of immediate gains for India is unrealistic. But as long as there is bipartisan goodwill for India and our interests coincide in the conversations ahead, the strategic partnership will continue, particularly in the Indo-Pacific.
T.P. Sreenivasan is a former ambassador of India, who spent ten years in the US in different diplomatic posts.