NEW DELHI: The Janata Dal (United) that is a key element of the National Democratic Alliance at the centre, is likely to take a call on its political journey in Delhi after the results of assembly elections in the three states of Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand are declared.
The polls in these three states are scheduled for the end 0f 2024. Except in Jharkhand, the two states have a BJP government. However, as per current reading of party leaders, the party was facing an uphill battle in all the three states.
JDU is the second largest of the BJP at the center with 12 MPs after the Telugu Desam Party (16 MPs) and while its support is not absolutely vital for the NDA’s continuity at the center, its presence is needed to run the government without any hiccups.
The NDA at present stands at 291 MPs. In case the JDU decides and all its 12 MPs withdraw their support, the NDA will come down to 279, seven away from the halfway mark of 272 seats.
BJP and JDU leaders from Bihar, who were in Delhi for the swearing in ceremony, were unanimous in their observation while speaking to this newspaper that there was no guarantee of Bihar Chief Minister and JDU president Nitish Kumar continuing with the NDA in the coming months given his track record of changing alliance without any strong reason being offered to him by his partners.
In case the BJP fails to perform well in these three states, Kumar is likely to move back to the Congress led bloc at the center and align with the RJD in the state with the hope that he will get a ‘better’ deal in Delhi and continue to remain the CM in Patna. Till now, both Congress and the RJD have stayed away from making any remark against Kumar, something that should be read with the realignment possibilities that may emerge in the future.
However, even if Kumar breaks away from the NDA, the government will continue to have a comfortable majority in the parliament.
The BJP strategists, in all likelihood, are already preparing for any such possible action by Kumar and have likely identified those leaders and parties who will readily lend their support to the NDA if needed.
Kumar has a track record of changing tracks while giving signals at the very last moment which has earned him the moniker of “Paltu Chacha”. The Sunday Guardian was the first to report in December 2023 that Kumar will ditch the Grand Alliance in Bihar and also dump the INDIA bloc despite being responsible for giving birth to the idea of one common alliance against the BJP.
In January 2024, Kumar left the Grand Alliance in Bihar.
In the present government, the Janata Dal has got two representation in the union ministry- Lalan Singh has been given the cabinet rank and charge of Panchayati Raj, Animal Husbandry Fisheries, and Dairy while Ministers of State Ram Nath Thakur has been made Minister of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Ministry.
The JDU, party sources said, was not happy with neither the number (two) nor the ministries that it was given. It has demanded the post of Lok Sabha speaker but a commitment has not been received from the BJP regarding this. The reason behind demanding the post of speaker, JDU leaders said, was to ensure that a ‘favourable’ decision is given by the chair in case any JDU MP or MPs decides not to heed the advice of Kumar in the near future. In Bihar, after he had ditched the BJP in Bihar and joined the RJD in August 2022 he had claimed that BJP was trying to break the JDU from within with the help of former Rajya Sabha Member RCP Singh.
A clarity on the post of speaker and the possible resultant complexities as a result of who is made the speaker will emerge after the special 8-day session of Parliament slated to commence on 24 June. In the 8-day session, the election of the Lok Sabha speaker is likely to be held on 26 June.
It is pertinent to mention here that assembly elections are scheduled in Bihar in October next year and Nitish Kumar, with his fixed vote share of 16-20 percent knows that while he alone cannot come to power in the state, but it is also true that neither the BJP nor the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) can form a government in the state without the support of Kumar.
KC Tyagi, JDU’s chief national spokesperson, who is seen as someone who only speaks what Kumar wants to convey to the media and political entities in Delhi, has been clear in his statements that shows that the JDU will maintain an ‘independent’ identity in the alliance. Last week he said would staunchly oppose any form of anti-Muslim or anti-minority campaigns. On the issue of the Uniform Civil Code, which the BJP has promised in its manifesto, Tyagi has said that while the JDU is not against it per se but for it to happen, consultations and consensus needs to be arrived at. The BJP has already announced multiple times that implementation of UCC was its core agenda and hence Tyagi raising questions on it is bound to make the BJP leaders uncomfortable.
Similarly, Tyagi has said that the government needs to revisit the policies related to Agniveer mode of recruitment in the army.
Similarly, the demand for a special package for Bihar, which is unlikely to improve the fortunes of the state even if sanctioned by the union government given the less than desirable system of administration in the state , has become a vocal talking point among the JDU raising questions on if the special package for Bihar will emerge as the reason for Kumar to jump ships for a better package for himself?