Opposition parties coming together may be counter-productive in around 224 seats where BJP secured 50% or more vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
After the Opposition, led by the Congress, held its second meeting in Bengaluru in its “unity” bid this week, Congress leaders have suggested that the grouping is an ideological-political formation and may not signify that all the parties will contest the elections in alliance.
Also, the Opposition is apprehensive about another possibility. In the last Lok Sabha elections, out of the 303 seats the BJP bagged, there are around 224 seats where the BJP won by over 50% vote share. So, if all the Opposition parties come together on such seats where the BJP had won by taking half the chunk of votes, the strategy would fail, unless there is a wave against the BJP or there is anti-incumbency.
A senior state in-charge of Congress said, “Like in Kerala, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and United Democratic Front (UDF) have high probability that they won’t contest the elections together. Same could be the ground reality at several places. Some parties are bound to contest elections separately. But yes, the Opposition meeting was held and will be held such that we are able to put this message across that we have come together against the divisive politics of the BJP. We have come together on at least the ideological front and we will contest with that fervour to protect the Constitution of India which is under threat under the BJP regime.”
The party leaders suggest that the main aim is to prevent the anti-BJP votes from splitting and wherever there is a possibility of votes getting split, the parties are supposed to have an understanding to field a common candidate. However, in constituencies where BJP doesn’t stand even a trifling chance, parties would want to contest the elections normally and would also be in pursuit to keep their cadre intact and motivated by giving them as many seats as there are in the offering. A political analyst said, “The whole idea is to limit BJP from winning seats from the arithmetic of first-past-the-post electoral system that favours the BJP. There are no right-wing parties who would break the BJP votes and there are dozens of secular parties and in each state, there are at least two secular parties who break each other’s votes and eventually, the BJP comes out as a clear winner. This new formation is the remedy for that.”
Moreover, top leaders from several parties said that it would be difficult for so many parties to agree on one single formula. A senior leader from a regional party said, “There are so many differences and there will be many differences due to the parties being regional and having regional interests. For example, the vote share will shift from one party to another, if a party figures out that allying with another party will harm its long-term prospects; or there are voters of different ideologies with different parties and allying would reduce the share of committed voters for a party. Then they will for sure contest alone.”
Another apprehension of the Opposition parties arises from the statistics of the last Lok Sabha elections where the BJP had won by a landslide victory, getting 303 seats in its kitty. Among those seats, there are around 224 seats where the BJP had won by more than a 50% vote share. So, if all the Opposition parties come together on such seats where the BJP had won by taking half the chunk of votes, the strategy would fail unless there is a wave against the BJP or there is anti-incumbency. However, what the Congress wants is to break the BJP votes on such seats by high pressure politics, straightening up their cadre, galvanizing its foot soldiers, contesting the seats with vigour and picking up issues that would be able to galvanize the attention of the electorate in favour of the grand old party. However, experts suggest that implementing all these ideas on the ground against the BJP with its formidable and savvy election machinery will be an uphill task for the Congress.