Ahead of the 2024 general elections, this year may see the BJP’s southern push, specifically in Tamil Nadu.
NEW DELHI: Year’s end is neither an end nor a beginning but a going on, with all the wisdom that experience can instill in us—a famous quote by Hal Borland. Same with Indian politics. Sometimes, all predictions made by renowned astrologers and pollsters go wrong. Who thought or predicted that Article 370 would be revoked from Jammu and Kashmir or the triple talaq would be banned by government? Recently, the historic victory of the BJP in the Gujarat Assembly elections under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi was also a surprise, because after 27 years of rule, the party won 156 seats and Congress got almost finished in the state. Therefore, the developments of 2022 will lead to many surprises in the years 2023-2024.
In the year 2022, Goa, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat and Delhi Municipal Corporation (MCD) went to elections. Bharatiya Janta Party’s dominance continued. The saffron party won 5 states—Goa, Uttarakhand, Manipur, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat, while the Congress got victory in only one state—Himachal Pradesh. The biggest surprise came from Punjab where Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) emerged as victorious, dislodging the Congress.
Nine states are scheduled to go to the polls over the next 12 months—Meghalaya, Tripura and Nagaland in February; Karnataka in May; and Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Telangana and Rajasthan in November. Of these, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh—where the BJP failed to win a majority in the previous elections and subsequently captured power by engineering defections—are critical for the party; so too are Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, both currently held by the Congress.
The Modi mantra of good governance, welfare and development infused with the cultural resurgence of Hindutva still pays dividends. It would be a mistake to see the corridor project at the Mahakaleshwar temple (Ujjain, Madhya Pradesh), in what was once the ancient Hindu kingdom of Avantika, in isolation. It is part of a concerted strategy that combines religiosity, cultural identity and Hindu-ness with a new unapologetic cultural nationalism that is deeply rooted in Hindu cultural symbols. This cultural play reaches out to many religious Hindus beyond the BJP’s core group of Hindutva supporters.
Many liberals make the mistake of dismissing the carefully choreographed symbolism of Modi presiding over the refurbishment of ancient religious sites, such as the Kashi Vishwanath temple in Varanasi last year, as mere political optics aimed at short-term electoral mobilisation. They could not be more wrong. In fact, the cultural power play and Modi’s focus on refurbishing temples are deeply intertwined with the idea of “New India” itself that the PM heralds as a radical break with the past. Beyond symbolism and the reordering of ritual economies and cultures, it carries within it a much deeper remaking of the political economy as well, with an underlying economic design focused on a new kind of Indian consumer and citizen.
The idea of Hindu cultural power is an incipient concept still, but what these statements indicate is a visualisation of India powered by Hindu-ness and unapologetically. For the purveyors of “New India”—a slogan formally adopted by the BJP in a political resolution on 9 September 2018—such a country would overwhelmingly look to its Hindu traditions as markers of identity.
As the PM indicated in Ujjain, this cultural positioning is aimed at both national and global audiences. For example, even at the Ram Temple consecration ceremony in 2021, PM Modi, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Sangh chief Mohan Bhagwat chose to dwell on why the message of the Ayodhya movement had ramifications far beyond India’s borders, saying it was the duty of the young to spread this message worldwide.
PM Narendra Modi has been a pioneer who likes to change orthodox style of politics. Earlier, senior leaders used to contest from safer seats, but BJP stalwart Narendra Modi has changed it for good. He seems to be an ardent optimist who believes in making the constituency he contests from his second home. Now, it seems that BJP will capitalise on his style of politics in the southern states as well. BJP is strongly mulling the idea to let its star performer Narendra Modi contest from Varanasi as well as Ramnathapuram. Ramanathapuram holds spiritual and cultural significance as it hosts Rameswaram, which is a highly revered place in Hinduism as it is one of the 12 Jyotirlingas.
Ram Setu, which was the crucial link between Bharat and Lanka, also started from Ramanathapuram. Additionally, the inauguration of the Ram Mandir is proposed to start on Makar Sankranti, 14 January 2024. Notably, PM Modi had earlier emphasised that BJP doesn’t do things randomly. Rather, it meticulously plans everything in advance. Furthermore, the BJP has been giving signals about it. Through Kashi Tamil Sangam, BJP has attempted to demolish the Dravidian parties’ fortress that is built of litany and falsehoods. At that event itself, PM Modi echoed that if Kashi hosts Baba Vishwanath, then Tamil Nadu has the divinity of Rameshwaram.
Keeping the above things in mind, if it happens, this aggressive move by the BJP may reap several dividends for the party. Contesting from Ramanathapuram, BJP can make Ram Setu a central pillar of its political campaign. Similarly, it can highlight its scientific as well as openness for every faith by hailing the son of the soil, the missile man and former President Dr A.P.J Abdul Kalam.
It will be an all-out aggressive strategy that will galvanise the cadre of BJP in the southern states. BJP’s leaders like Tamil Nadu state president K. Annamalai have given hope of change to the voters.
So, if PM Modi decides to make a southern election campaign around himself and infuse the party’s strength, the BJP has a great chance to shatter the myth of being a party of the North Indians.
BJP’s most popular and charismatic leader Narendra Modi contesting from Ramanathapuram will put the party in a serious race in the southern belt. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP registered clean sweeps in several states and its alliance has drastically changed shape. So, on pragmatic analysis, erosion in BJP’s Lok Sabha seats seems highly likely and anti-incumbency of 10 years also plays a significant factor. So, by going aggressive in the southern states, BJP may make up for a few losses elsewhere.
Now that the BJP has got the construction of the Ram Mandir started at the erstwhile disputed site in Ayodhya, as also revoked Article 370 that granted special status to Jammu and Kashmir, the spotlight will move sooner than later, much before the 2024 general elections, to the Uniform Civil Code. The government has now asked the 21st Law Commission to examine and make fresh recommendations to the UCC. Till such time a consensus emerges on the passage of a pan-India law, the state governments are free to bring in state law, as family and succession laws come under the concurrent jurisdiction of the Centre and states. Already, BJP-ruled states like Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh have been independently taking up the UCC. It already exists in Goa, as the state inherited the Portuguese Civil Code in 1867, which is still applicable after that state joined the Indian Union in 1961. Political pundits believe that Modi can bring legislation of UCC even before the Lok Sabha elections.
The writer is the Editorial Director of ITV Network-India News & Daily Aaj Samaj.