NEW DELHI: The question in Agra is, which way will Jatav and Muslim voters go: towards SP or BSP?
Located approximately 200 km from the national capital of Delhi, Agra was the capital of the erstwhile Mughal Empire. Famous for its magnificent Mughal-era architecture, including the Taj Mahal, the Agra constituency has witnessed the rise and fall of empires and the shaping of modern India.
Agra, a reserved constituency, has had its tryst with the Congress, Bharatiya Janata Party, and Samajwadi Party. Since 2009, it has been a BJP stronghold. The BJP has fielded incumbent MP and Union Minister Satya Pal Singh Baghel from Agra. The Samajwadi Party has fielded Suresh Chandra Kardam and Bahujan Samaj Party, Pooja Amrohi. Agra is voting on 7 May, Tuesday.
Known as the “Dalit capital” of north India, Agra has a 25% population of Scheduled Castes (SC), predominantly from the Jatav community. Despite this, the BSP has not been able to bring this seat to its fold since its inception in 1984. However, in the 2022 Assembly elections, the BJP won all the nine Assembly seats that constitute the Agra seat, thus repeating its 2017 feat. Other than its historical buildings, Agra houses a footwear market, which is a source of employment for many Jatav voters.
According to local experts, Agra has been the focus of some big development projects, be it by the SP, Congress or BJP. The SP government constructed the Yamuna Expressway. Agra has high-speed rail connectivity because of which prominent trains run at a speed of 130 KM/h here; the first train to run at 160 KM/h in railway history, Gatiman Express ran until Agra in 2016. The Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government has inaugurated the Agra Metro.
The BJP is eyeing to retain its stronghold. S.P. Singh Baghel won the 2019 elections by getting 646,875 votes, which was a 56.48% share. The BJP has moved beyond caste dynamics to create a new constituency of poor, women, farmer and youth voters. The party is focusing on addressing the growth and demands of the area, such as the development around the Taj Mahal and the Yamuna barrage, and exploring the untapped potential of rural tourism centred around the city’s historical landmarks.
The BJP is confident of winning this time too, with the construction of the Ram Mandir expected to give an additional push to its campaign. Both the SP and BSP have fielded candidates from the Jatav community, which will likely split the Jatav votes. While speaking to The Sunday Guardian, various voters from the majority community, including Dalits backed the BJP because of the Yogi-Modi factor. Baghel, who belongs to the SC, has extensive support among Dalit voters too.
The SP candidate, Kardam has his roots in the BSP, and came runner-up in the 2000 mayoral election. It is believed that he may eat into BSP votes. He has a shoe business, which gives him an advantage among voters working in shoe manufacturing. The BSP candidate, Pooja Amrohi, has got branded as an “outsider” as she belongs to the Etah constituency. It has to be seen if any possible consolidation of Muslim and Jatav voters in SP’s favour upsets the BJP’s winning streak in Agra. Speaking with The Sunday Guardian, Aquib Khan, a resident of Agra’s old city, said the majority of Muslims were backing the I.N.D.I.A bloc candidate Kardam, however, a small percentage of Muslims support the BSP as well.