‘As a lower riparian, Pakistan will frame the project as an attempt by India to deny water for its domestic consumption,’ says Uttam Sinha of IDSA.
With the completion of the Shahpurkandi dam located in Pathankot, Punjab, a lot of noise and speculation is being generated in the domestic and international media on what its benefits are and if it will be used, as it is being hyped in certain sections as a strategic tool by India against Pakistan. Or it is more focused towards improving the lives of the farmers in the region?
The Sunday Guardian spoke to Uttam Kumar Sinha, who is a leading scholar and commentator on transboundary rivers, climate change and the Arctic. He was Co-Chair of the Think-20 Task Force on “Accelerating SDGs: Exploring New Pathways to the 2030 Agenda” during India’s G20 Presidency. He is a senior fellow with the Delhi-based Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA).
Q: How true is the speculation that by operationalizing this dam, Government of India has stopped the flow of water of Ravi river to Pakistan?
A: The notion that the Shahpurkandi project is intentionally devised to obstruct water flow into Pakistan is misguided. As a lower riparian, Pakistan will frame the project as an attempt by India to deny water for its domestic consumption. While such framing may not come as a surprise, it couldn’t be further from the truth. Art II (1) of the Indus Waters Treaty states, “All the waters of the Eastern Rivers shall be available for the unrestricted use of India, except as otherwise expressly provided in this Article.”
Clause (2) says, “Except for Domestic Use and Non-Consumptive Use, Pakistan shall be under an obligation to let flow, and shall not permit any interference with, the waters of the Sutlej Main and the Ravi Main in the reaches where these rivers flow in Pakistan and have not yet finally crossed into Pakistan.
“The points of final crossing are the following: (a) near the new Hasta Bund upstream of Suleimanke in the case of the Sutlej Main, and (b) about one and a half miles upstream of the syphon for the B-R- B-D Link in the case of the Ravi Main.”
Clause (3) says, “Except for Domestic Use, Non-Consumptive Use and Agricultural (as specified in Annexure B), Pakistan shall be under an obligation to let flow, and shall not permit any interference with, the waters (while flowing in Pakistan) of any Tributary which in its natural course joins the Sutlej Main or the Ravi Main before these rivers have finally crossed into Pakistan.” India is optimising the provisions of the IWT on the eastern rivers, which for several decades was on the back burner. As a result, a considerable volume of water from the Ravi (2 million acre feet (MAF) approx) was flowing freely to Pakistan.
Q: Apart from its impact on our neighbourhood, what benefit does it give to Indian farmers?
A: During the rainy season, a significant amount of Ravi water enters Pakistan from the Madhopur Headworks. However, in the dry season, the water flow to Pakistan is minimal. The Shahpurkandi project aims to capture and store rainwater for irrigation purposes, benefiting approximately 37,000 hectares in Punjab (5,000 hectares) and Jammu & Kashmir (32,000 hectares). Farmers in these two states want water for irrigation and this project will offer much relief, particularly in Punjab with the groundwater situation rapidly declining. Additionally, the project includes a 206 MW powerhouse for power generation. J&K will get access to 20% of the hydroelectricity produced. The idea to build the Shahpurkandi dam dates back to a 1979 agreement between Chief Ministers Parkash Singh Badal and Sheikh Abdullah of Punjab and J&K respectively.
Q: Will this cause much damage to Pakistan’s economy? Or is it more of a symbolic step rather than strategic? Many see this step as an instrumentalising river as a tool for war. Would you agree? And is this legally and morally valid?
A: The potential water loss from the Ravi will undoubtedly pose consequences for Pakistan but that is a challenge that Pakistan has to address domestically. It is important to emphasize that India’s action is neither intentional nor deliberate. Water is critical for development and remains a matter of national interest. India’s utilization of the waters from the Eastern Rivers, as outlined in the Treaty, is within legal bounds. While India has not previously fully utilised its entitlement, it is now rapidly doing so.
This will certainly give Pakistan the heebie-jeebies. On the positive side, this situation may encourage Pakistan to prioritize its domestic water management and efficient use of its water resources which remains abysmally poor.
Q: Will not this step set a precedent and perhaps force other countries, including China to resort to something similar given the fact that many major rivers that flow into India originate from China?
A: China is already constructing dams on the upper reaches of the Yarlung-Tsangpo (Brahmaputra), regardless of India’s water development plans. China demonstrates a more strategic approach in harnessing its river resources and is not compelled to react to India’s initiatives.
Q: Arguments have been made for a long time that the Indus Water Treaty, 1960 needs to be modified or perhaps even repealed. Where do you stand on this?
A: There is much debate over the Indus Waters Treaty in India. Whether it should be abrogated or modified with an updated version. But the more rational and practical approach for India is to optimise the provisions of the Treaty. India has not built the infrastructure for the full use of the waters of the eastern rivers like Ravi or the “permissible storage capacity” granted on the western rivers. It is foolhardy to think about abrogation of the Treaty without optimising its provisions.