Taniguchi warns of China’s growing power, urging leaders to stay optimistic.
New Delhi: Tomohiko Taniguchi, former foreign policy advisor to the late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, shared his insights on Indo-Pacific policy while speaking at the NXT Forum 2025. He highlighted major challenges and key opportunities in the region.
Taniguchi spoke about India’s trajectory, stating, “I think India’s future is among the most promising. An optimist sticks to elements about which one can be optimistic because India, since its independence, has experienced many challenges and zigzagging experiences. Nonetheless, India has remained democratic and has never failed to transition to the next administration in a peaceful manner.”
Addressing Japan’s economic situation, Taniguchi remarked, “If you look at countries like Bangladesh that are gaining traction in their economic development, one can be optimistic for us. I have not spoken about Japan. Japan poses its own domestic challenges— population decline and an aging society. One can easily be very pessimistic about the future of Japan. But let’s look at the other side of the same coin.”
Speaking about the most significant challenges facing the Indo- Pacific, Taniguchi asserted, “China is going to be bigger and more powerful. People often argue that the Chinese economy is gradually losing steam.” He further stated, “Let’s be pessimists first before we become optimistic. And by the way, in order for any leader of any nation to lead his or her country, the leader must be an optimist about the future.”
Taniguchi emphasized that for any national leader to effectively guide their country, they must maintain an optimistic vision for the future. However, he identified the three biggest challenges in the Indo-Pacific, stating, “Number one, China. Number two, China. Number three, China.”
He warned that China would continue to grow both economically and militarily, becoming even more formidable. While some argue that China’s economy is slowing, its population advantage is turning into a liability, and wealthy Chinese citizens are seeking investment opportunities outside the country, the overall economic growth remains significant. Even if China’s growth rate moderates to 3%, 4%, or 5% annually, it would still mean a doubling of the economy within 14 years. As a direct consequence, military expenditure and power will also continue to expand.
Looking ahead five to ten years, Taniguchi pointed out that both Japan and India are inadvertently contributing to China’s growing military power every day. This raises a crucial question: How can democratic nations like India and Japan coexist with and manage the rise of an increasingly powerful Chinese military? The first major challenge, therefore, is China’s military expansion.
The second challenge stems from China’s economic trajectory, which has defied conventional expectations. It was once widely believed that economic growth would naturally lead to the rise of the middle class, which in turn would foster greater political openness and public discourse. However, this assumption has proven entirely false in China’s case.
Instead of moving toward liberalization, China is becoming even more authoritarian. This trend is expected to have profound global implications, intensifying the ideological and strategic competition between democratic and authoritarian models of development. This rivalry, which has already begun unfolding, is only going to escalate further.
Taniguchi stressed, is Taiwan. Although not directly about China, Taiwan’s future holds immense significance for Japan. He underlined the gravity of the situation, stating that Taiwan’s fate is paramount for Japan’s future.
“Should Taiwan fall under the control of the Chinese Communist regime, Japan would face a drastically reduced strategic space,” he cautioned.
Beyond the geopolitical implications, such a scenario would also impact Japan’s national psyche and confidence, making it harder for the country to stand firm against China or maintain its own public discourse. The situation in Taiwan is thus not just a regional issue but a direct and pressing concern for Japan’s security and strategic position in the Indo- Pacific.
The United States remains the world’s dominant power, but its political volatility creates uncertainty for allies like India and Japan. To maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific, nations with shared strategic interests—including Australia—must strengthen cooperation to keep the U.S. engaged as a counterbalancing force. India’s rise presents a major opportunity in the region. Despite challenges, its stable democracy and peaceful transitions of power enhance global stability. However, managing domestic social and religious tensions wisely will be crucial.
Another significant opportunity is the rapid growth of knowledge creation, particularly in AI. English-speaking nations, including India, are well-positioned to lead in AI, quantum computing, and scientific research due
Ross also praised the diversity of speakers at the NXT event, emphasising the wide-ranging perspectives represented.
“We’ve literally gone from a Hungarian minister to an American cowboy. It’s incredible to see such a range of voices at this conference,” he said.
Introducing himself, he added, “Although I am an academic and an author, I come from the world of entrepreneurship and venture capital.”
Sharing his entrepreneurial background, Ross recounted how he started a company in a basement alongside three friends, with little to no capital, and built it into a global enterprise.
“Now, my focus is on supporting young entrepreneurs worldwide, including here in India,” he said.
“What I want to do is offer perspective on what I believe is about to happen—not in a distant science-fiction future, but in the next few years.”
Speaking about the importance of data in the modern world, Ross urged attendees to think beyond 2025 and consider the landscape of 2026 and beyond.
“Looking at the raw material of the economy throughout history, land was the foundation of the agricultural age, iron was central to the industrial age, and today, data is the raw material shaping the future,” he explained.
“In today’s world, those who own, control, or can extract meaning from data are the ones driving the industries and businesses of the future,” he added.
Ross also noted that he no longer views the digital sector as a distinct entity. Instead, he believes that every sector has become digital.
“All industries are being transformed by technological forces, with artificial intelligence being the most recent and significant disruptor,” he concluded.