Sanae Takaichi has the allure of potentially becoming the first woman Prime Minister of Japan.
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s sudden decision not to contest for the Presidency of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) that has a significant majority in Parliament (with its smaller coalition partner, The New Komeito Party), has opened up a feisty campaign to succeed him. While the 49th general election for members of the House of Representatives is scheduled to be held on or before 28 November 2021 as per the Japanese Constitution, the LDP President election is scheduled for 29 September 2021.
PM Suga is known for his seven days a week work schedule, and before he became PM he was the Chief Cabinet Secretary, in effect the Chief Operating Officer of the Japanese government, when Shinzo Abe was PM. Once Abe resigned due to exacerbation of his ulcerative colitis health condition that he has suffered since the age of 17, and the desire of his doctors to change the medication to the newer monoclonal antibody therapy, PM Suga was hastily installed in a truncated election wherein rank and file LDP members were unable to vote in view of Covid and the suddenness of the Abe resignation, and the rules for that election were set by the Secretary General of the LDP, Toshihiro Nikai, a close ally of PM Suga.
Elections for the PM of Japan involve two steps. First, to become president of a party that will have the majority in the Lower House of Parliament either by itself or in coalition. Hence, the contest for PM is between the President of the LDP and Yukio Edano, the Opposition Leader and head of the Constitutional Democratic Party, who heads a coalition of opposition parties. Mr Edano is charismatic and was the Cabinet Minister and point person during the traumatic Great Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in 2011. He slept on the conference table in the office and was at work all the time, giving updates on TV and made a tremendous impact on the public. Also, as Opposition Leader, Edano commands widespread respect for his passionate advocacy of his political stands, that appear to be deep-rooted convictions and not formulated merely using focus groups. One rigid part of his party’s platform is to prevent any change in Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution that preserves Japan’s peacenik reputation. In the rising risk environment in the Indo-Pacific, that stance could be his Achilles Heel as the public is alarmed about the manner of US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and therefore wonders about the resilience of the US in the face of aggression in the Far East. The fact remains that the US-Japan defence alliance is even more significant than the Japanese Constitution that was largely written behind the scenes by US Occupation Forces after Japan surrendered in World War II.
THE FACTION SYSTEM IN THE LDP
Unlike political parties in most countries, the LDP has formal factions led by prominent leaders. Each faction has its own study groups and administrative setups. They meet periodically and function as a bloc or political action committee. In the Indian context, it would be as if J.P. Nadda, Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh etc head official factions within the ruling party. Since they vote en bloc, the support of LDP faction leaders and senior members becomes critically important to win the presidency of the LDP. The number of MPs who are members of an LDP faction can change, slightly, as MPs move to another faction from time to time, depending on the opportunities.
The major LDP factions are:
* Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroyuki Hosoda group (98 MPs).
* Deputy PM and Finance Minister Taro Aso’s group (54 MPs).
* Former Minister Wataru Takeshita’s group (likely to be renamed as Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi group following retirement of Takeshita) (54 MPs).
* LDP Secretary General Toshihiro Nikai’s group (47 MPs).
* Former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida’s group (47 MPs).
* Former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba’s group (19 MPs).
* Former LDP Secretary General Nobuteru Ishihara’s group (11 MPs).
* Non-affiliated group of MPs including current PM Yoshihide Suga (64 MPs).
In addition to the Members of Parliament, voters for the position of President of LDP will also include LDP elected representatives from the 47 prefectures (akin to states) and rank and file LDP party members as well. The deals being cut, many well behind the scenes, will determine the outcome, as even prefectural elected representatives owe allegiance to particular factions.
THE LDP CANDIDATES
* Sanae Takaichi: A conservative woman, former Cabinet minister and a close associate of former PM Shinzo Abe as well as many other prominent leaders in the party, she has the allure of potentially becoming the first woman Prime Minister of Japan. Well regarded for her work ethic and people skills, Ms Takaichi has overcome health and personal challenges to be regarded as a capable, tough, no-nonsense minister and senior party official. In younger days, Takaichi was a staffer in the office of US Representative Patricia Schroeder, in her time a powerful member of the US Congress.
* FUMIO KISHIDA: Former foreign minister Kishida is from Hiroshima, site of the Atomic bombing, and therefore he has a strong anti-nuclear stance like most politicians from Hiroshima or Nagasaki. In ordinary times, that may have been an asset, but in the charged atmosphere of today, how might it be regarded by the public? Regarded as a thoughtful minister and party official, not prone to hyperbole. Kishida recently annoyed current LDP Secretary General Nikai by pointing out that Nikai had stayed on too long as Secretary General, provoking a response from Nikai that he felt “insulted” and he would resign from that critical position. Kishida should therefore not count on any of the Nikai faction’s 47 members for support.
* Shigeru Ishiba: Former Defence Minister Ishiba is admired by many rank and file party members for his plain-speaking, forthright style, but that and his personality are not necessarily beloved in the halls of Parliament. His own faction is rather small, and it is unclear how many of the larger factions would support him.
* Taro Kono: A former foreign and defence minister, Kono comes from a family of politicians. Having studied in Georgetown University, Washington DC, and worked for US Senator Alan Cranston and US Senator Richard Shelby, Kono speaks fluent English and is often boosted by the English-speaking international media bureau personnel in Tokyo. He currently heads the effort on Covid vaccinations for Japan. Taro Kono is known for insisting on donating a part of his liver to his father, Yohei Kono, for liver transplant following the senior Kono’s liver failure consequent to his chronic Hepatitis C infection.
With nearly a month left for the LDP campaign to replace PM Suga, Japan will have a new Prime Minister on 30 September. While the official reason stated by PM Suga’s team for his retirement is the failure to control the Covid situation in Japan where there are spurts of cases especially in the mega-cities, another unstated reason is that Mr Suga is not a magnetic campaigner like Opposition Leader Edano, and younger LDP MPs were deeply concerned at getting into the General Election campaign in October/November 2021 with Mr Suga at the campaign’s head. They feared that tight races would be lost amidst a failure to communicate passionately and effectively.
Dr Sunil Chacko holds degrees in medicine (Kerala), public health (Harvard) and an MBA (Columbia). He was Assistant Director of Harvard University’s Intl. Commission on Health Research, served in the Executive Office of the World Bank Group, and has been a faculty member in the US, Canada, Japan and India.