The message from Karnataka

The outcome of the Karnataka Assembly elections has far reaching and wide ramifications for national politics in general, and the Bharatiya Janata Party in particular. The spectacular Congress win is on expected lines, and it in a way has ensured that South India indeed is BJP Mukt, so far as state governments are concerned.
Therefore, if the saffron brigade has to regain its foothold in this region in particular, it shall have to rework its overall strategy to make politics more inclusive, by giving greater attention to the involvement of local leaders.
The BJP seems to have committed the same mistakes it did in Himachal Pradesh where also it lost to the Congress. As in Himachal, where most party workers opposed the continuation of Jairam Thakur as the Chief Minister, in Karnataka there was huge resentment against the sitting Chief Minister, Basavaraj Bommai, who should have been replaced with a more dynamic leader.
Similarly, the BJP, for some odd reasons, attempted to bring up national issues, allowing the Congress to walk away with the matters that were on the top of the mind of the electorate, and pertained to their day-to-day existence and were absolutely local in nature. National leaders were brought in to campaign, despite the fact that barring the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, none of them had any connect with the voters.
While opponents of the BJP are now maintaining that the Karnataka people had rejected Modi’s overtures, it should be kept in mind that had it not been for the Prime Minister’s last-minute efforts to salvage the situation, the results would have been even worse for the BJP. In other words, if the BJP has got the numbers it has, it is solely on account of Modi’s campaigning.
Within the BJP, there is also a growing feeling that undue interference by Organizing Secretary and RSS interlocutor, B.L. Santhosh, who belongs to the state and party in-charge, Dharmendra Pradhan did not sit well with the cadres. They may have succeeded in sidelining some senior leaders such as Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi, but their approach to the polls was clearly flawed. The Congress shall be happy to utilise the services of these two leaders, regardless of whether they win or not.
What should be most worrying for the BJP is that the women, youth and the poor seem to have deserted the party in this election. It is a known fact that no one can win any election without the active support of these three sections, which till now had been firmly behind the Prime Minister and his schemes.
According to one of the exit polls, 41% of women had opted for the Congress this time as against 34% for the BJP. This is an area which would require Modi’s immediate attention. Otherwise also, over emphasis on the Prime Minister alone to win the elections for the party is not in the overall interests in the long run. Younger and regional leaders should be developed and trained to supplement these efforts.
The BJP’s impending defeat was obvious to those who have been following Karnataka politics, though many senior leaders opted for an ostrich like stance to the entire issue. In order to cover up their failure, top leaders are claiming that the results of the Lok Sabha elections in 2024 would once again restore the supremacy of the saffron brigade in this Southern State, where it had a large presence, thanks to the overwhelming support of the Lingayat community.
For the Congress, the victory gives a big reason for celebrations though it may kick up a tussle for the Chief Ministership amongst both Siddaramaiah and D.K. Shivakumar. The Congress chief, Malikarjun Kharge is from the state as well and could play a decisive role in determining who would occupy the august position.
Both Siddaramaiah, described by even Dinesh Gundu Rao on a TV channel as the most popular leader in Karnataka cutting across party lines, and D.K. Shivakumar have been actively making attempts for the top slot. The Congress high command has to ensure that the matter is settled amicably between the two of them and it does not lead to a situation where the BJP could take advantage and thus rock the Congress boat. The BJP leaders have already hinted that they have Plan “B” in place and what it is, only time shall tell.
The role of former minister and Siddaramaiah’s close aide Zameer Ahmed Khan, has been crucial in facilitating the large-scale shift of the Muslim vote towards the Congress. He could be rewarded by the party adequately when the ministry is formed. The Congress should also prepare itself for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in the state and it is important that it ensures that the Janata Dal (Secular) becomes an alliance partner, instead of allowing it to drift towards the BJP. If the Congress and Janata Dal (S) enter into a formal association at this stage, things would become extremely difficult for the saffron brigade.
Many political analysts may also give due credit to both Rahul Gandhi and his sister, Priyanka for their role which succeeded only because they permitted state leaders to spearhead the campaign and set the political agenda, instead of imposing themselves on them. A similar approach would also help the party in the Parliamentary elections.
Within the BJP, a power struggle may come into play. To begin with, it could commence from Karnataka and the RSS may have to step in to contain things. Between us.