SRINAGAR: With the entrance of dozens of influential candidates into the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) assembly polls, votes are expected to split, making strong candidates from the NC-Congress alliance and People’s Democratic Party (PDP) vulnerable. The recent entry of Engineer Rashid into the elections has intensified the campaigns of smaller political parties, like his Awami Ittehad Party (AIP). This move has prompted former Chief Ministers Mehbooba Mufti and Omar Abdullah to label Engineer Rashid as a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) “proxy”, accusing him of aiming to further divide the votes in Kashmir.
In South Kashmir, Jamat-e-Islami candidates have entered several assembly segments, causing concern for PDP candidates and the sole Communist Party Of India (Marxist) (CPIM) candidate, M.Y. Tarigami, who is contesting from Kulgam. It’s noteworthy that many past assembly elections in J&K have resulted in hung assemblies, with no clear mandate in the elections of 2002, 2008, and 2014.
According to available data, independent candidates and smaller parties have disrupted the possibility of a clear mandate for major political parties like Jammu Kashmir National Conference (JKNC), PDP, and Congress since the 2002 assembly election. These independent candidates played a role in the formation of the PDP-Congress government in 2002 through a post-poll alliance.
In the 2008 elections, smaller parties and independent candidates in J&K secured 32% of the vote share but only managed to win 10 seats. During the 2014 assembly elections, they captured 15% of the vote share and won 7 seats. The 2024 Parliamentary elections indicate a growing influence of independent candidates and smaller parties, who secured 25% of the vote share and led in 15 out of 90 assembly segments. The most significant upsets were the losses of former Chief Ministers Mehbooba Mufti and Omar Abdullah, with Omar losing to jailed AIP leader Er. Rashid in the Baramulla parliamentary segment.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah, in a recent interview with a Jammu-based English daily, stated that in the upcoming assembly election, the BJP is likely to form the government with support from smaller parties and independent candidates. He mentioned that the three dynastic parties in J&K are unlikely to succeed in forming a government in the region.