The much awaited announcement of the elections to five state Assemblies has set in motion the process of political re-alignments, particularly in Uttar Pradesh where there are indications of a possible tie-up between Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi and Rashtriya Lok Dal leader Jayant Chaudhury. It is evident that Akhilesh is looking towards the future, while perhaps ignoring the recent past when his party and its potential allies were overwhelmingly rejected during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, giving Narendra Modi a virtual walkover in the country’s most populous state.
Much has changed since the people of UP last voted and it would be miraculous if the BJP is able to repeat its stellar performance and thus wrest power on its own steam, come March. Akhilesh realises that after breaking away from the shackles of strong family bonds that governed the Samajwadi Party, he may need like-minded people to support him in his quest to emerge as a formidable leader. His calculation is that once the Congress comes on board, the Muslim vote that has always stood by his father and with his party would continue to remain with him as well. His apprehension here is that if the minorities are not thoroughly wooed, they could shift allegiance to the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and its supremo Mayawati, who is occupying pole position at the commencement of the election process.
Each of the UP contestants has their own worries. Akhilesh’s main concern, in addition to dealing with his own kith and kin, is that he should be able to exploit to his advantage the fluidity of the political situation. The principal impediment is that having administered the state for five years, he would find it extremely difficult to play an alternative to the Samajwadi Party style of governance. Although his supporters are desperately trying to provide him a coating of a politician who believes in good governance and development, but his track record belies this projection. It is during his tenure that the Muzaffarnagar riots, the Bulandshahr gang rape, the Akhlaq lynching and the Mathura mayhem took place and there is no reason why the electorate would absolve him of his failure to control the worsening law and order situation. If jungle raj exists in any state, it is most pronounced in Uttar Pradesh.
Therefore, Akhilesh cannot pose as a victim of the machinations of his uncle and others, and has to accept full responsibility on what went right or wrong under his stewardship. He simply cannot think that people would believe that he was the only good guy in his flock and consequently deserves another chance. He cannot simultaneously be the ruler and be the opposition. His problems in his party are regarding who should call the shots, though he had been made the Chief Minister after securing a huge mandate in the 2012 elections. It would not be easy for him to change the political discourse and think that people too are holding a similar perception. Mayawati definitely is not grabbing the headlines in the same manner as others, but she is the biggest contender for the throne in Lucknow, notwithstanding the theatrics of the Samajwadi Party.
Secondly, presuming an alliance with the Congress works out in the next few days, Akhilesh should be prepared to accept the negativity that would come with it. The Congress is in total disarray in the state and to expect it to boost the Chief Minister’s chances is totally incredulous. The grand old party is a liability in the present circumstances and its Chief Ministerial nominee Sheila Dikshit will heave a sigh of relief if the tie-up materialises. It would save her from leading the Congress campaign once again after the party was trounced in the 2013 Assembly elections in the national capital, with the Chief Minister herself losing the seat by 26,500 votes to Arvind Kejriwal.
On another note it is being stated in Congress circles that Rahul would have no hesitation in sacrificing Dikshit, who in any case got the assignment primarily because of his sister, Priyanka. Incidentally, the Congress, while making allegations of corruption against the Prime Minister following certain disclosures in the Sahara and Birla diaries, also divulged Dikshit’s name as one of the possible recipients of the donations. This, of course, is not a mere coincidence.
The Rashtriya Lok Dal would also be coming to inaccurate conclusions if it believes that an alliance would help its fortunes. Reports emanating from Western Uttar Pradesh, particularly the Jat strongholds indicate that the RLD was expected to reap a rich harvest of seats there. The Jats, who last time had supported the BJP, are disgruntled with the saffron brigade and are likely to throw their lot with Ajit Singh and Jayant Chaudhury. If the RLD is able to win a respectable number of seats, it can consider entering into a post poll alliance, instead of burning its fingers with a pre poll tie-up with either the Congress or with Akhilesh.
The BJP has its own share of problems and some of its leaders from the states are not sure whether the Amit Shah campaign formula would ultimately work out. The party is not projecting anyone as the Chief Minister and is thus banking on the Modi magic once again to pull it off. The UP polls, indeed, are unfolding most interestingly. Between us.