The over-reliance on technology has inadvertently provided the terrorists with opportunities to manipulate information, blurring the line between actionable intelligence and misinformation.
The recent appalling terrorist attacks in Russia, claiming the lives of at least 137 individuals, serve as a grim reminder of the most pressing challenge facing modern nation-states: terrorism carried out by armed non-state actors, driven by ideologies and religious fanaticism. One suspects the involvement of several actors due to the strategic and military sophistication of the attack. Why would Islamic terrorist groups attack Russia in the post Hamas-Israel war scenario? These questions remain and Russian suspicions are on Ukraine and its proxies in this grey and hybrid warfare.
Contemporary terrorism is unique not merely for its modus operandi but rather for the alarming expansion of its reach, the ease with which attacks are orchestrated, and the sophistication exhibited by the perpetrators. As such, this evolving landscape of terror demands a comprehensive reassessment of counterterrorism strategies, one that acknowledges the evolving tactics and capabilities of these violent actors.
Unlike earlier endeavours driven primarily by strategic objectives or the need to establish international networks as a means of evading domestic crackdowns, today’s terrorists are increasingly motivated by grim theatrics of carnage. As we grapple with this evolving form of terrorism unfolding on a global scale, three key considerations demand our attention:
1. AN EDGE OVER INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES?
The escalating challenge of terrorist attacks in recent years poses a critical dilemma for intelligence agencies worldwide: maintaining an edge over adversaries who exploit vulnerabilities with alarming precision. By their very mandate, intelligence agencies operate preemptively, recognizing that post-event responses offer scant recourse. They collect, analyze, and disseminate information to decision-makers, which is crucial for safeguarding national security interests.
Intelligence can be broadly categorized into two vital streams: strategic and operational intelligence. The former encompasses data for formulating long-term national security strategies, often entwined with geopolitical dynamics and power competition among states. However, the lion’s share of intelligence work falls under the operational domain, where time-sensitive information must be swiftly deployed. Failure to act promptly renders such intelligence obsolete, because it carries grave and immediate consequences.
As technological advancements increasingly shape the landscape of intelligence gathering, there has been a concerning shift away from human intelligence (HUMINT) towards Signal Intelligence (SIGINT). This over-reliance on technology has inadvertently provided the terrorists with opportunities to manipulate information, blurring the line between actionable intelligence and misinformation. The consequence is a disconcerting trend of large-scale and lethal terrorist attacks persisting across the globe. Meanwhile, despite advancements in their capacities and increased security measures, states find it challenging to keep up.
2. CHANGING PROFILE OF TERRORISTS
The profile of the terrorists is undergoing a profound shift. Gone are the days when terrorists were stereotyped as illiterate, poor, cave-dwelling individuals with a lack of technological savvy and linguistic skills. In the contemporary landscape, terrorists represent a new breed: educated, tech-savvy, multilingual, and often blending seamlessly into society until apprehended.
The recent arrests in India serve as a stark reminder of this evolving threat. Among those apprehended were individuals with impressive educational backgrounds, including a student of Biotechnology at IIT Guwahati who had allegedly sworn allegiance to the ISIS. This underscores the unsettling reality that modern terrorists are drawn from diverse backgrounds, often defying conventional stereotypes and, therefore, more difficult to apprehend and terror attacks more difficult to avoid.
Yet, it’s crucial to maintain perspective when discussing the phenomenon of foreign fighters and mercenaries joining ISIS from India. While a notable number have been identified, it pales compared to the influx from Europe and the US, countries with much smaller populations. This underscores the complex interplay of factors influencing terrorist recruitment and highlights the success of Indian intelligence agencies that were able to apprehend and break the terrorist-rings recruiting for the ISIS.
3. TERRORISM THROUGH INFORMATION WARFARE
As noted, in the current era of terrorism, there is an emergence of highly tech-savvy individuals who have grown up in the digital age. These modern terrorists are adept at leveraging technological tools, leading to the rise of information warfare tactics aimed at either crafting elaborate conspiracies or undermining legitimate efforts. A striking example can be observed in the case of Israel’s conflict in Gaza, where narratives have swiftly shifted against Israel, even preceding the involvement of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). This manipulation of information in the cyber space poses a formidable challenge for intelligence agencies, impeding their ability to respond swiftly and effectively.
In addition to the proliferation of tech-savvy terrorists, social media has emerged as a potent tool for radicalization, particularly among young individuals. Issues unfolding in one corner of the globe can swiftly ignite anger and fear and even spur action in distant lands. While the world caught a glimpse of this phenomenon during the Yugoslav crises in the 1990s, the present reality is marked by instant incitement platforms such as Instagram and Facebook, where ill-intentioned individuals amplify and disseminate manipulated information with alarming speed.
The manipulation of information on these platforms has the potential to stoke violent reactions in various countries, irrespective of whether the underlying tensions are religious or ethnic in nature. Terrorism, regardless of its guise, must be unequivocally condemned and combated. However, the battleground is evolving, with cyberspace increasingly becoming a primary arena for extremist activities.
As the lines between physical and cyber warfare blur, addressing the complexities of modern terrorism demands a multifaceted approach. It necessitates enhanced technological capabilities to counter online radicalization and robust international cooperation to tackle the global dissemination of extremist ideologies. India has emerged as a driver of the global counterterrorism agenda, but when it comes to domestic efforts to keep up with evolving terrorism, there is a need to redirect more focus to developing a new generation of individuals that can keep up with the changing threat of terrorism.
A clear case is the involvement of Canada in harbouring Khalistani terrorists on their soil to attack another sovereign democratic state. Is it the spillover of competitive domestic politics that ruin a sane and impartial foreign policy? Technology is a double-edged weapon. In both the recent attacks in Israel and Russia the involvement of the Islamist group named alone without proxies is doubted. The reason is the level of sophistication and the machinery used is beyond the capabilities of these groups, hence the needle of suspicion moves beyond to the involvement of those who possess this technology as part of grey or hybrid warfare.
Prof. Santishree Dhulipudi Pandit is the Vice Chancellor of JNU.