What is Xi Jinping really afraid of?
On the occasion of the Chinese New Year of the Dragon, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the State Council (China’s Cabinet) held a Spring Festival gathering on 8 February 2024, which was attended by Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping and members of the Politburo Standing Committee. This has been the usual practice for many years, and there is nothing special about it, but a group photo released by the Chinese official media is quite intriguing.
In the photo, Xi Jinping and the Communist Party Standing Committee are seated at a large round table in the front of the room, backed by dozens of tables of guests, each table with about ten people. As you can see from the photo, most of the invited guests are old men in their seventies and eighties, and they should be retired provincial ministerial level veterans. What stands out is that at each of the four round tables near Xi Jinping, in the middle of a table full of grey-haired old men and women, there is a young man who appears strong and experienced, with closely cropped hair and an expressionless face. Of course, they could not be retired old veteran officials, nor could it be the current provincial ministerial leaders. Obviously, the young man at each table should be a soldier of the Central Security Bureau or other units of the police and security forces, and the sudden sitting with the grey-haired old men is, without a doubt, to ensure the security of the scene, including of Xi Jinping and the senior officials of the Communist Party of China.
Here is the interesting part: from an outsider’s point of view, what kind of security problem is there? First, those who were invited to the Spring Festival gathering were all former senior officials of the Chinese Communist Party, who are the core members of the CCP’s interest groups. Who would have the guts to assassinate Xi Jinping in full public view when they are so preoccupied with avoiding becoming victims of Xi Jinping’s ongoing official purges? Second, even if these senior cadres of the Communist Party can enter the gathering, they have been repeatedly examined and scrutinized by organizations at all levels, including the General Office of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party—an office in charge of providing support for the Central Committee and its Politburo—and state security departments, before they are put on the finalized list, and it is impossible for those with any security concerns to be let in to sit near Xi Jinping. Third, and most ridiculously, the attendees in the hall are quite old. Even if some of these people are dissatisfied with Xi Jinping, what can they do, given their extremely limited physical strength? Was Xi Jinping worried that some 70- or 80-year-old person would rush over and strangle him with their bare hands? In short, such a high level of security precautions is not only totally unnecessary, but also ridiculous.
So, our question is: Xi Jinping is as terrified of the outside world as birds are frightened by the mere twang of a hunter’s bow. He is so hostile on occasions—like confronting a mortal enemy—as if his own life was at stake, the opinions of the international community notwithstanding. What is he really afraid of?
There are two hypotheses: First, it is purely personal. That is, Xi Jinping has developed a hypochondria—like paranoia that makes him uneasy about even the frail and elderly, and he has to be on guard against them attacking him in a public place like the Great Hall of the People. Frankly speaking, this kind of mentality is already a bit sick. Secondly, according to the assessment of the intelligence system, Xi Jinping has judged that there is still a security risk even at such an internal public occasion, and therefore the highest level of security arrangements must be prepared.
This photo sends a clear signal to the world that no matter how much Xi Jinping has been purging people he considers disloyal from the Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army for more than a decade, he is still filled with worry and fear for his own safety until today. Whether this is due to his personal paranoia or a genuine fear of insecurity, it all points to the same fact: the regime is not stable.
Therefore, if the dictator of a regime lives in the shadow of fear every day, he will keep on purging and arresting suspicious people around him. Can such a regime be stable? And if Xi Jinping really has intelligence in his hands and thinks that his own security is under threat, then it is even more indicative of the instability of this regime.
On the occasion of the Chinese New Year, according to tradition and reason it should be a celebratory occasion, but the guards and soldiers seated at each table in this photo inadvertently reveal that underneath the peaceful surface, there is “the glint and flash of cold steel” —heated conflict—within the top echelons of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). What could be more revealing of the tension within the CCP than this photograph?
Wang Dan is a well-known Chinese dissident and leader of the Chinese democracy movement. He is director of the Dialogue China think tank.
Translated from Chinese by Scott Savitt.