A strong opposition that can keep the government on its toes is always good for the health of a democracy. But then, hopes and desires apart, what does the data say?
Déjà vu is not something that bursts upon you in a torrent. Often, it creeps up on you in a gently insidious manner, like a once powerful melody that hasn’t aged very gracefully. Just as the authors were thinking that the Lok Sabha elections seem to have lost their charm, excitement, sense of fun and suspense and become an arena to exchange abusive rhetoric, they were a tad surprised and happy with two sets of news that occupied headlines for a while before the abuses took over again. The first set of “breaking news” was that the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi and the de facto Rahul Gandhi led Congress have finally agreed to form an alliance and fight the Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh. While the exact details might change, the Congress has been “given” 17 seats to contest out of the 80 available and seems happy with it. Coming after weeks and months of fractious and even rancorous exchanges, this formal alliance is no doubt a shot in the arm for the tottering I.N.D.I Alliance that was launched so aggressively in June 2023 to oust Narendra Modi and the BJP from power during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
We will come to the numbers and the data in a little while. But the second set of breaking news. Once again, the details are yet to be officially and formally announced at the time of writing, but supporters of both the Congress and AAP have invaded social media platforms with accounts of how AAP and Congress will fight together as an alliance in Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh, Gujarat and Goa. Wisely, leaders of both parties seem to have agreed that it doesn’t make sense to form an alliance in Punjab as they are principal rivals in the state and fighting together would open up spaces for the likes of the BJP and Akali Dal. Fighting a battle together is always better than fighting separately and the authors agree that this is good news for the beleaguered opposition. Passionate supporters of opposition parties have expectedly welcomed the new alliances. Even more expectedly, critics who detest Modi with a passionate ferocity have gone to town with the news. In a campaign of calling of names and calumny, that doesn’t surprise the authors.
But at the end of the day, the authors always fall back on credible numbers and data because it is data that trumps over rhetoric and polemics. It is here that the authors experienced a sense of déjà vu that was both interesting and eerie. In a manner of speaking, the AAP and the Congress were “conflicted” partners for a few months in the aftermath of the 2013 Delhi Assembly elections, where the BJP won the most seats but fell short of a majority. A lot of people seem to have forgotten that fact: the Congress lent “outside” support and Arvind Kejriwal was sworn in as a Chief Minister for the first time. Traditionally, governments with “outside” Congress support do not last very long as it usually withdraws support after a few months. But in Delhi, it was Arvind Kejriwal who resigned after a short stint in February 2014 and decided to become a prime ministerial candidate along with Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi. That’s another topic though. Till 2023, the Congress has often cheered the arrest of top AAP leaders like Satyendra Jain and Manish Sisodia. But perhaps the existential threat owed by a looming third consecutive term for Modi has compelled the once sworn enemies to tie a temporary knot. The relationship between the Congress and the SP has been a longer and more complicated one. Off and on, the relationship has often faced an end and then bounced back. It is bounce-back time now for Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi.
As mentioned earlier, the authors like the formation of these tactical or strategic alliances; the terminology being dependent on your ideology. A strong opposition that can keep the government on its toes is always good for the health of a democracy. But then, hopes and desires apart, what does the data say? If the AAP-Congress alliance succeeds, it could reduce the BJP tally in Haryana, Delhi and Gujarat. With Chandigarh, these states send 44 MPs to the Lok Sabha. In 2019, the BJP vote share in Delhi was 57%; it was 58% in Haryana and 62% in Gujarat. The authors are not even getting into details of AAP plus Congress vote share in these states because it is a moot point. What the data says is clear: it is not enough for AAP and Congress to add up their 2019 vote shares. They have to somehow ensure their combined vote share goes up by at least 10% and that of the BJP falls by at least 10%. The authors cannot really say what exactly will happen when the ballots are counted. But the latest CVoter poll conducted across India suggests that the BJP is set to sweep Delhi, Haryana and Gujarat once again. Then there is something called alliance “chemistry”, which is important to alter political fortunes.
That brings the authors to another déjà vu moment. An even bigger one. Much to the surprise of everyone, Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav buried the hatchet in 2019 and formed a grand alliance to defeat the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. Pundits crawled out of the woodwork and forecast the end of a majority BJP government as it had 73 of UP’s 80 seats with its allies in 2014. While not indicating doomsday for the BJP, even the CVoter polls had indicated significant losses for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. But we all know what happened. The BJP vote share went up from about 42% in 2014 to almost 50%. The grand alliance managed a 39% vote share. All this was before the Supreme Court verdict on the Ram Temple and the recent “Pran Pratishtha” of the Lod Ram idol in Ayodhya. The final déjà vu moment for the authors is the 2017 Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh. Akhilesh and Rahul formed what appeared to be a formidable alliance to stave off the challenge posed by Modi. A “generous” Akhilesh even gave the Congress about 100 seats to contest. The “brothers of UP” were decimated by a Modi wave. In the 2022 Assembly elections, the BJP actually increased its vote share even though it lost a number (about 57) of seats.
Given these sets of data, all the authors can do is wish good luck to the new partners in Haryana, Delhi, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh.
Yashwant Deshmukh is Founder & Editor in Chief of CVoter Foundation and Sutanu Guru is Executive Director.