Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears all set to assume his office for the third consecutive time on Sunday, with the BJP and its allies electing him as the leader of the Parliamentary party. In his own words, spoken after his ratification as the leader by the freshly elected MPs, he said that he shall be heading an NDA government.
Significantly, PM Modi consciously ensured that he did not mention his own name multiple times, and expressed his gratitude to his supporters including millions of workers throughout the country, who made this historic event possible. Many of his opponents were speculating that the RSS, which did not support the BJP in the recently concluded elections, would throw a spanner in the works, but nothing of this sort happened.
The RSS has been very clear that it shall step in and give advice only if it is sought, thus refusing to interfere in what it construed as the BJP’s own internal affair. However, it is obvious that there should have been some pressing reasons for the Sangh to keep its volunteers away from the polls, and these would certainly come out in the course of time.
There was also a view in the Opposition that Modi should accept the verdict which was against him since he was the central figure in the elections and the number of MPs of the BJP had come down drastically to 240 from 303. An example that was cited was of Rajiv Gandhi, who declined to stake the claim of forming the government in 1989 even though Congress had 197 members, and was the single largest party. Rajiv had stated then that the mandate was against him, and therefore he would sit in the Opposition.
In Modi’s case also the mandate was certainly not for the BJP forming a government on its own, but with the numbers from the allies adding to much above the simple majority mark of 272, the possibility of his becoming the PM was always there. The new government after it gets sworn-in will have a very strong allies component, and it shall be indeed a challenge for PM Modi to carry everyone with him, thus displaying greater flexibility and political maturity.
Those who think that it would be difficult for PM Modi to adjust to the new reality may be proved completely wrong. The Prime Minister has seen many upheavals in his life, and has passed through very difficult times during his early years. He is a survivor and thus shall overcome the present setbacks to continue with his agenda, which obviously will now have to be accommodative as to include the wish list of the allies.
Both Andhra Chief Minister elect Chandrababu Naidu and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar are very experienced politicians who know how to play the power game. They would obviously demand their pound of flesh for the support they offer, and simultaneously shall ensure that there is no immediate threat to the government.
PM Modi is also aware of the compromises he shall have to make, and thus the manner in which he distributes the portfolios to his new ministers would be an exercise that shall have its own tale. The indications are that the BJP is unwilling to part with the four top ministries—External Affairs, Home, Defence and Finance, and has reservations regarding giving away the position of the Speaker to an ally. The Speaker’s post during the NDA dispensation under Atal Behari Vajpayee was held by the allies, and hence it would evoke a lot of interest to figure out who the position goes to this time.
The Cabinet formation may also see some political lightweights losing their positions, unless the Prime Minister backs them fully. The new government has to also ensure that it has vocal and experienced leaders to face the Opposition, which with its reinforced strength is going to make things difficult.
The Congress shall obviously be occupying the position of the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha and so far, the speculation is that it could be Rahul Gandhi, who has been elected both from Rae Bareli in the North and Wayanad in the South. However, this is not a certainty given that Rahul has the propensity of allowing someone else to bat upfront.
What would also be keenly watched is how PM Modi juggles his choices and whether he would bring back his most trusted lieutenant Amit Shah as the Home Minister. Shah has been under fire from a lot of quarters and though he won by a very impressive margin, he could opt out on his own to make things easy for his leader.
The Opposition charge during the past ten years has been that many ministries were remote controlled and were run from the PMO with the incumbents merely being figureheads. If true, this is surely going to change and the ministers shall be more accountable to Parliament for their actions.
In his third avatar, PM Modi shall have to display all his political skills to take his MPs along and at the same time, neutralize the Opposition accusation that he may break the parties that support him in order to consolidate his position. There is also speculation that attempts may be made to split the Congress, something which is vehemently denied by senior leaders.
The short point is that the choices of the people should not be tampered with, and any attempt to tinker with the mandate can boomerang. Between us.