Taiwan is in Xi’s crosshairs. He’s publicly said he wants it which means he’s staking his reputation on getting it.
Washington, DC: 2024 was rough. 2025 won’t be any smoother.
How rough things get depends mostly on Xi Jinping.
He won’t be letting up, and he’s got a powerful military behind him—no matter the economic challenges facing the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
What does the PRC have PLANed?
Just focusing on Northeast Asia, Taiwan is in Xi’s crosshairs. He’s publicly said he wants it which means he’s staking his reputation on getting it.
Military pressure will continue against Taiwan. As well as subversion, espionage, and the opposition KMT controlled Legislative Yuan making life—and national defense—difficult for President Lai Ching-te and the DPP leadership.
WILL XI ATTACK TAIWAN IN 2025?
Only he knows, but don’t think he’s still a couple years from being ready.
Chinese bullying of the Philippines will increase—as the China Coast Guard, the People’s Liberation Army Navy, and Maritime Militia push to occupy more of Philippine maritime territory.
Meanwhile in South Korea, pro-North Korea and pro-China (and anti-American) leftists are aiming to establish a one-party state. This long-term goal
China encourages and supports this entropic warfare—tearing apart South Korea’s free society and eroding the ROK-US alliance.
The improved South Korea-Japan relations that President Yoon engineered are in trouble.
Japan is also on Xi’s menu.
The PRC will be stepping up operations around the Senkaku islands and elsewhere in the Nansei Shoto (Japan’s southern islands)—with an eye towards keeping Japan on the backfoot, or worse—when the time comes to hit Taiwan.
The Russians will be piling on around Japan too. Don’t expect Putin to become nice in 2025.
Kim Jong Un in North Korea is on a roll thanks to Beijing and Moscow—as Tokyo well knows.
Xi will play the pro-China elements in Japan’s ruling class, suggesting there’s a deal to be cut.
This passive aggressive behavior actually works. Plenty of Japanese leaders fall for it, not least Prime Minister Ishiba, and it distracts Japan from building a proper defense.
Beyond Northeast Asia, Chinese political warfare efforts throughout the Pacific Islands continue, and Beijing insinuates itself more deeply into nearly every nation and territory (even American ones) in the Pacific.
It all resembles Japan in the 1920s and 1930s—aiming to dominate and to drive the United States out of the Asia-Pacific region.
Xi is not going to ease off and will likely turn up the heat everywhere.
The only thing restraining Xi is the Americans and Donald Trump.
WHAT ABOUT WASHINGTON?
Nobody in the Biden administration scared the People’s Republic of China. But now they are gone.
Beijing isn’t sure what to think about Trump—but didn’t like him much the first time around.
Now he’s talking about serious tariffs on Chinese imports, for starters.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz have been wise to the PRC threat for years. Beijing even slapped a travel-ban on then-Senator Rubio for talking about the CCP’s stilettoing of human rights in China and beyond.
Rubio also did something a couple years ago that terrified Chinese communist leadership. He required the US Intelligence Community (IC) to report on the overseas wealth of CCP leaders—and Xi Jinping.
It was due months ago. The new administration might insist the IC do what it’s told.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is also calling for “peace through strength” and called out “Communist China” by name. Yet, at least one senior official at DOD is talking about “cooperation spirals” with the Chinese communists.
The idea being that the US makes a concession—say, reducing forces in the Asia-Pacific—and the Chinese will respond with one of their own. Leading to a love-fest as each side outdoes the other.
This is the foreign policy equivalent of the Biden administration’s spendthrift “modern monetary theory” (MMT) and it threatens to do to the US position in the Asia-Pacific what MMT did to the US economy over the last four years—devastate it.
Not so long ago, this writer heard another rumored senior DoD appointee say the US should not defend Taiwan—since if it lost a fight the results would be calamitous. Others in the Trump administration appear half-hearted, if that, about defending Taiwan from communist enslavement.
So surrender in advance? Hell of a policy.
And there’s Elon Musk. He and Tesla are in bed with the Chinese. Will he keep the Administration from leaning on the PRC? Nobody knows.
WHAT DOES TRUMP MEAN FOR JAPAN?
Rather than waiting to find out, or fretting that Trump might ask for more money for US forces in Japan or ask Japan to do something it doesn’t want to do…why not pretend the Americans aren’t around?
And then consider what Japan needs to do to defend itself alone.
Japan won’t be able to handle everything. But it will get farther than if it allows pathologic dependence on the Americans to avoid doing much of anything.
Japan is trying to build defense ties with everyone—Australia, Indonesia, Philippines, India, Italy, and others. This is nice, but it matters little in terms of hard power.
Only the Americans provide that.
Fortunately for Tokyo, the Americans aren’t going anywhere.
Or at least I hope not. The so-called “restrainers” in the Trump administration just might decide that forward deployed US forces in Japan are unnecessary and even provocative.
Tokyo needs to pay close attention to this mind-set in Washington.
But also remember, the American people (and even parts of the US government) are far more willing to help those who help themselves.
So Tokyo ought to act like it’s on its own—while thanking God (and Washington) that it isn’t (yet).
But get ready now.
Instead of preparing for a war over Taiwan, the Japanese government is focusing on evacuating people from the Nansei Shoto in the event of trouble.
Wars aren’t won by evacuations.
If Tokyo needs some help knowing what to do, ask Hawaii to send out some war planners to tell them.
But if Japan really wants to “preempt” Trump, have the Japanese ambassador arrange a meeting with the Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, and the National Security Advisor and say: “What do you need from us? Just tell us.”
2025 is about five years late to ask this. But best to do it now. Tokyo may find 2026 is too late.
* Grant Newsham is a retired U.S. Marine officer and former U.S. diplomat. He was the first Marine liaison officer to the Japan Self Defense Force, and is a fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. He is the author of the book, “When China Attacks: A Warning To America.”