It is unknown who encouraged US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to attempt his Mission Impossible of persuading Israel to agree to a ceasefire “now that Yahya Sinwar has been killed”. Perhaps it was an attempt by Blinken himself to burnish his credentials to continue in his present job should Kamala Harris get elected as President of the US on November 5. It may have been Biden himself who has sent Blinken on his mission, in an effort to somehow broker a ceasefire despite the slim odds of success, given that Netanyahu is the Prime Minister. It is no secret that Netanyahu would prefer Trump and not Harris to win, among the reasons why he would be averse to agreeing on a ceasefire deal that could boost the chances of the Democratic candidate. Should Harris prevail over Trump, Netanyahu is likely to double down on his efforts at breaking for good the ability of the military wing of Hamas to mount another terror attack on the lines of October 7, 2023 before Harris gets sworn in on January 20, 2025. At the same time, he would moderate his actions in this last phase of the US Presidential elections until voting concludes, as fear of a regional war may drive more voters towards Harris. That elements influenced by the Sino-Wahhabi lobby have embedded themselves in the Biden administration and are seeking to continue during a Harris Presidency is clear from the way in which war plans of Israel against Iran were selectively leaked to the media from within the US national security machinery.
The Heads of State of the Arab countries have been uniformly polite to Blinken on his forays, a politeness which is part of the culture of the region. However, they are aware that the Secretary of State has very limited influence on the present Israeli government. Should Trump get elected on November 5, even that leverage would disappear. Each time Blinken makes a visit to the region and says to the media that a ceasefire deal is very close to fruition, his Arab interlocutors know that such an assertion is an exercise in fantasy. Given a chance, Netanyahu will not stop the war until he has destroyed the military capabilities of regional proxies of Iran. A big loser among the Arab states because of the October 7, 2023 terror attack by Hamas on Israel may be Qatar. The country has been hosting various terror groups, the implicit understanding being that they would refrain from attacking a western country or a close ally of a western country such as Israel. It was unable to ensure that, or even be told of the terror attack by the Hamas leadership in advance. Clearly, such organisations feel no compulsion to inform Qatar of all their plans. Had they done so, it is expected that Doha would have informed Washington about them. Nor does Qatar appear to have sufficient influence over terror groups on which it has expended vast sums of money, presumed leverage which was the reason why its hosting of such groups was encouraged by Washington. The clerical regime in Iran could be another loser. Despite having elected a relative moderate as President of the country, actual power is wielded by the Supreme Leader of Iran. Should the clerical regime fail to protect its proxies, the public in Iran may find the courage to mobilise and overthrow it. Among the losers have been the Houthis. By getting involved in the futile effort to eliminate the State of Israel, the Houthis have brought ruin to the territory they control. Terror never pays in the end, something that some neighbours of India should not forget.