China’s political situation is undergoing internal turmoil, showing a high degree of instability, and is a situation that has not been seen in the past.
Since Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, the Communist Party’s purges have continued non-stop. But the recent removal of two members of the State Council [the PRC’s Cabinet]—former Foreign Minister Qin Gang and former Defence Minister Li Shangfu—have nonetheless set a new record for political chicanery in the Chinese Communist Party. What is puzzling and different is the three-step process of the official attitude toward this purge. Both Qin and Li suddenly and without warning disappeared from the public eye. Then the Beijing leadership privately explained to the concerned international community (e.g., the United States) that it was due to “health reasons.” But finally, in a press briefing with international reporters, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning was insistent on not giving any explanation, no matter how hard the media pressed her for a comment.
This is very unusual. Compared to the personnel changes during the Xi Jinping era, it is common to tell the public in a dignified manner that a certain person is “under investigation for corruption.” Such a statement only shows that the Communist Party is continuing with its anti-corruption campaign, but it does not do any harm to the image of the Communist Party. Most of the media reports on the purge of Li Shangfu this time said that it was due to corruption in the military. If this is the case, why can the Communist Party not admit it in a dignified manner? If they are unwilling to admit that Qin Gang and Li Shangfu’s fall from power is due to corruption, or that there are other reasons for their demise that are not known to the outside world, then, judging from the Communist Party’s historical record, using “health reasons” as an explanation for their demise, even though the outside world may have doubts, is a “reasonable” excuse for the disappearance of Qin Gang and Li Shangfu. Why was such a simple and convenient way of handling the matter not adopted at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs press conference? It has been two to three months since two high ranking State Councillors suddenly lost power and evaporated into thin air. But no real explanation has been given, not even a false and fabricated reason, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson has even said directly she is “not clear on the matter.” This is a very rare situation in the history of the power struggles of the Chinese Communist Party, with the exception of the special period of the Cultural Revolution. This is abnormal, and unnecessarily so. This is why I say that the political situation in China is strange and unpredictable.
Of course, we do not have any direct evidence to explain why the above situation has occurred, but a few details are certain: First, from 2012 until today, Xi Jinping’s purges of senior military officers have continued without stop. From Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Guo Boxiong’s purge in 2012 and subsequent sentence of life in prison, to Minister of Defense Li Shangfu’s present fall, high ranking military officers are clearly unable to ensure their own safety. In fact, the frequent replacement of high-ranking military officers is not conducive to national security stability. But Xi Jinping has been relentless in his purges. This shows that Xi Jinping, who has been chairman of the Central Military Commission for more than 10 years, is still not at ease with the military. This kind of tense relationship between Xi and the military has added a lot of uncertainties to the future political development of China. Second, the strange, sudden, and unexplained fall of two State Councillors proves once again that power struggles still exist within the Communist Party, and that Xi Jinping’s power after the 20th National Communist Party Congress is not as consolidated and secure as outside observers once thought. Although on the surface it seems that Xi Jinping has placed his own people in almost all important positions, if even someone like Qin Gang, who has long been regarded as Xi Jinping’s loyal subordinate, can so suddenly disappear, then the very existence of a so-called “Xi Jinping Family Army,” never mind the faction’s cohesiveness, should be questioned by outsiders. If it is said that Xi Jinping has not been able to establish a stable ruling team loyal to himself after last year’s 20th National Communist Party Congress, and if he is not completely at ease with his “own people,” such a high level leadership structure is not only unstable, but also another major variable in China’s future political development.
Based on the above analysis, my judgment is that China’s political situation is now undergoing internal turmoil, showing a high degree of instability, and is a situation that has not been seen in the past. It is impossible to predict what will happen in the future, but no possibility can be ruled out. The outside world, be it the West or Taiwan, including the opposition forces in China, should be mentally prepared for this.
Wang Dan is a well-known Chinese dissident and leader of the Chinese democracy movement. He is director of the Dialogue China think tank.
Translated from Chinese by Scott Savitt.