The Kamzore Kaddis
Recently, Amit Shah called Kanimozhi on her birthday, leading political commentator and columnist Radhika Ramaseshan to tweet that “Kanimozhi, Abhishek Banerjee & earlier Shivpal Yadav. Must say BJP is adept at spotting the kamzore kaddis (weak links) in family centered parties.” These are not the only weak links that the Home Minister has been cultivating. Some in the past include, Ajit Pawar (NCP) in Maharashtra, Dushyant Chautala in Haryana (ex INLD) and Aparna Yadav (ex SP) in Uttar Pradesh. One other who could be next in line for “birthday reachouts” could be Tej Pratap (RJD) since he is not very happy with the prominence being given to his younger brother Tejashwi Yadav.
Is PK in or out?
Although Prashant Kishor is yet to take on an active political role, his political prospects excite as much curiosity as any politician’s. There have been rumours that he and Mamata Banerjee have fallen out due to his interference within the TMC, such as deciding candidates for the recent civic polls. There is also speculation that Mamata Banerjee is not too happy with the party’s prospects in Goa and holds Prashant Kishor responsible for the fiasco she sees coming. The moot question is will Mamata Banerjee part ways with Kishor post these Assembly elections or will the duo continue to work together to build a coalition against the BJP in 2024? According to Jayanta Ghosal, author of a very comprehensive biography on Mamata Banerjee (Mamata Beyond 2021), she will not part ways with Kishor, though his role within TMC will be curtailed. However, there may be a softening of the TMC’s approach towards the Congress, for Mamata realises that no anti-BJP formation is possible without the national party. Plus, Mamata has a good equation with Sonia Gandhi. The question will be of leadership of the UPA, which is why Mamata has been talking of reimagining the UPA. The leader of the UPA could end up as being projected as the prime ministerial face to take on Narendra Modi. But as Sachin Pilot told NewsX in a recent interview, Rahul Gandhi has never said that he wants to be the PM face. He is happy to support any coalition against the BJP. So, perhaps we can see a rapprochement within the Opposition, post these Assembly polls.
Where is Manish Tewari headed?
After Ashwani Kumar left the Congress, there was speculation that Manish Tewari may also be in exit mode, especially after he was dropped from the star campaigners’ list. But in an interview to NewsX recently, he made it clear that his association with the Congress is decades old and that he will remain a Congressman unless pushed out. He also added in answer to a question that he doesn’t regret writing the G23 letter as he did it for the good of the party. As for being omitted from star campaigners’ list he said that he has been campaigning for MLAs in his constituency but not the rest of state. And he wasn’t surprised at the omission as his equation with Captain Amarinder Singh is well known and it makes him a suspect. However, he did take a dig at Sunil Jakhar for his comments on not being made Chief Minister as he is Hindu, by pointing out that comments like this disrupt the Hindu-Sikh amity that’s been there in the state; and that such comments should be squelched by the high command. But instead of issuing any reprimands to the feuding Congress leaders in Punjab, the said high command has clearly decided it’s best to take everyone, and their egos, along, at least until after the elections are over.
Battleground Punjab
Congress infighting may cost it the elections in Punjab. Although when the elections began the mood was in favour of the Congress, but the Charanjit Channi vs Navjot Singh Sidhu fighting has not gone down well with the voters, who seem inclined to give the Aam Admi Party the “ek mauka” it is asking for. Will it be advantage Kejriwal as anecdotal evidence seems to suggest? Or is one underestimating the hold of the Akali Dal at the Panchayat levels? And which way will the Deras cast their vote, for they are known to favour the BJP? Don’t forget in 2017 the Congress won because at the last minute, the RSS diverted the BJP-SAD vote to the Congress to keep the AAP at bay. Will that scenario be repeated? In the last phase of campaigning, the BJP stepped up its campaign against Arvind Kejriwal, circulating Kumar Vishwas’ video, where he claims that Kejriwal was pro Khalistan. Both the Congress and the BJP have found common ground against the AAP. Also, a hung house would suit the BJP as then it would be able to impose Governor’s Rule and rule the state by proxy. Although psephologists are predicting that once it comes to the crunch then unlikely foes can come together, as is what happened in Maharashtra. But it would be difficult to see the Akalis doing a turnaround a la Shiv Sena and tying up with the Congress. The one alliance that may work in terms of ideology is that between the Congress and the Aam Admi Party, but will Congress agree to play Deputy CM to Bhagwant Mann? The general consensus is that if it’s a hung Assembly then the AAP will be the first to break as it is a party of exports rather than cadres. All in all, Punjab is proving to be as colourful an election ground as that of Uttar Pradesh.
The Poll Story so far
The poll results could throw up an interesting surprise, especially for those predicting a Congress wipe-out. Ground reports from Uttarakhand indicate that the hill state has voted in favour of the Congress (not unlike what happened in the Himachal bypolls recently).
Goa too seems divided between the BJP and the Congress, with the TMC and AAP failing to make much of a dent despite their hyped up campaign. As for Uttar Pradesh, the “UP Ke Ladke” seem to have done well in the first two phases with the Jats that had fled to the BJP post the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots doing another U-Turn. But will Akhilesh Yadav’s caste coalition work in eastern Uttar Pradesh? Has BJP succeeded in making law and order an effective election issue to dent the SP vote?
And are we underestimating Mayawati’s vote bank? All in all, it’s a high voltage election season.