An aged and tired leadership in the US will have no relevance in shaping the global order.
The United States will be electing its 47th President in November 2024. It seems both the Democrats and Republicans are worried about their respective candidates, especially at a time when the US is looking for a bigger responsibility in leading the global affairs. It got reflected in the first presidential debate hosted by CNN and it was obvious that the contenders for the 2024 presidential run were not showing the signs of leadership which the US is looking for. The contestants were not reflecting the enthusiasm that Americans need. A vision of America assuming the centre stage of world politics will certainly not get realized by either of the two.
An aged and tired leadership in the US will have no relevance in shaping the global order. The US might confront more challenges both from domestic and global fronts. It is unfortunate but true that the deliberations during the presidential debate were not in conformity with the usual ethical standards and the real issues were not given much seriousness. Their ability to solve problems and resolve contradictions were missing during the debate. How either of the two contestants can meet the aspirations of the people of the United States remains a moot question.
It seemed in the debate as if Biden’s brain got frozen. He was struggling to form a coherent sentence and was not that articulate as a presidential nominee should be. Moreover, Biden’s arguments appeared to be confusing. The cognitive ability which is necessary for any President was missing in both the contestants. Biden somewhere lost his track and struggled to mention several issues properly including Medicare while discussing tax rates for wealthy Americans.
The debate featured bilateral exchanges between Trump and Biden on inflation, immigration, abortion rights and major issues before US foreign policy. Both contestants emphasised on their point of view with the objective on how they individually could persuade voters in their favour. The election in the US is scheduled for 5 November 2024.
The debate followed some strict guidelines on speaking limits and also prohibited notes. As it was hosted by CNN, hence there was no audience mainly to ensure that no immediate reactions could come. TV debates have always had a significant impact on candidates’ fortunes and also on the voting behaviour of US citizens. TV debates have been considered crucial for shaping public opinion.
Issue based politics in the United States’ obviously forms the core of the debate but the voters need an assurance on the ability of the candidates to resolve the contentious issues. According to a CNN poll aired after the debate, 67% of viewers thought Trump won, while 33% believed Biden was the winner. The voters seem to have said that they have no real confidence in Biden’s ability to lead the country. This is just the opposite of the 2020 final presidential debate where 53% of viewers felt Biden won compared to 39% who thought Trump won.
Trump too was not that coherent this time but performed better than Biden. In the first 20 minutes, Biden proved to be disastrous reflecting his old age. He was hard to understand and he would stop mid-sentence and move on to entirely different areas.
There is going to be a greater challenge in the United States especially on the leadership question. The world right now is highly unstable. The international system is in an absolutely fluid situation. The debates on the shaping the global order are still continuing.
For the United States in particular, the rise of China is becoming a matter of greater concern despite Joe Biden’s soft corner for that country. The expectations of the rest of the world especially from the US in the current geopolitical context are far too many.
Unfortunately, the US is yet to show its effectiveness in containing the ongoing conflict in the West Asia, especially that of Israel versus Hamas. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is yet another example where the US could not do much in containing the escalating conflict. Though the US had assumed the responsibility to lead the world affairs, the tangibles are not seen in terms of showing its leadership role.
In the emerging dynamics of geopolitics, India certainly has a prominent role to play especially when the US will be facing challenges in its leadership role. The geopolitical gaps created by the US most likely will be bridged by India. There is no denying the fact that India has got its position elevated in the international system despite all odds in the last ten years. India’s voice is now well heard across the global spectrum. India is becoming a part of agenda setting and is also exploring ways and mechanisms to address most global problems including climate change and sustainable development.
The world will wait for the next and final presidential debate before the US goes for election in November. It is least likely that the Democrats will change their candidate despite the talk regarding this in the US and the rest of the world.
Dr Arvind Kumar is Professor of United States Studies at School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi.