In the tariff war with the US, China has put export controls on rare earths. In anticipation of such controls, President Donald Trump has been sharply focused on access and supply of mineral resources as part of his plan to reinforce economic security of the US.
The hunger for rare earths and critical minerals is shaping global geo-political developments. The control and access to minerals will define power equations for the next few decades. Countries with ready and affordable access to these minerals will strengthen their economies. Supply control of such minerals will underpin an economy’s technological prowess.
The scramble for natural resources has been occurring for ages. Western powers have scrambled to control supply of oil, gas and minerals for centuries. In the current era, however, countries from Asia are competing with the West for critical minerals.
The US, UAE and India are among the countries that are eagerly securing mineral supplies for their economies. China has somewhat of a head start with its investments in the African continent over the last few decades. In the tariff war with the US, China has put export controls on rare earths. Seven categories of medium and heavy rare earths, including samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium-related items, will be placed on an export control list, the Chinese government has said.
In anticipation of such controls, President Donald Trump has been sharply focused on access and supply of mineral resources as part of his plan to reinforce economic security of the US. His statements on a mineral deal with Ukraine are clear. So is the intention to utilize the minerals in Greenland and the Arctic. The US is keen to ensure that it does not remain dependent on China for such minerals. The US also wants to counter the influence of China in global supply chains since Beijing has strong pacts in the African continent for mineral access.
Western powers are increasingly concerned as China dominates the rare earth elements market, accounting for 70% of global production. The world is looking for a rebalancing where the rare earth market is not monopolized by a few powers.
With the rise of renewable energy and electric vehicles, the demand for these metals is soaring. From 2020 to 2022, the annual value of rare earths used in the energy transition quadrupled, and it’s expected to increase tenfold by 2035. The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre predicts that by 2030, Greenland could contribute nearly 10,000 tons of rare earth oxides to the global supply chain.
The focus on Greenland and even Canada is an effort to secure supplies of minerals in the decades to come. US policymakers anticipate that with global warming, access to subterranean minerals will become easier and affordable under frozen regions of Greenland and Canada. Various estimates indicate that Greenland has US$4 trillion worth of untapped rare minerals. The Trump administration has smartly focused on its interests that will secure the country’s future for several decades.
“Refined rare metals are a critical import that American companies don’t produce and need to get from China to produce many needed products in the US such as mobile phones, magnets, night vision glasses, gyroscopes in jets, LED lights, glass, and ceramics,” wrote Ray Dalio in a blog post. Dalio is founder of the world’s largest hedge fund firm, Bridgewater Associates.
ASIA JOINS THE MINERAL HUNT
Apart from China, West Asian economies that are investing in technology are also keen on critical minerals. According to a report in Technical Review Middle East, UAE is expanding its presence in Africa’s mining industry, with many strategic investments for boosting production, infrastructure, and energy security across key markets.
In February, Ambrosia Investment Holding acquired a 50% stake in Allied Gold’s mining projects in Ethiopia and Mali. This deal includes a $375 million capital injection to boost project development, aiming to increase gold production in Ethiopia by 290,000 ounces annually by mid-2026 and in Mali by 400,000 ounces annually by 2028. Additionally, Ambrosia plans to enhance sustainability by implementing solar photovoltaic and battery storage systems at the Sadiola mine in Mali, ensuring energy security by July 2026.
Rare earths, or rare earth elements (REEs), are a group of 17 chemically similar elements that are crucial in the manufacturing of many high-tech products. These elements include the 15 lanthanides on the periodic table, plus scandium and yttrium. Despite their name, most rare earth elements are relatively abundant in the Earth’s crust, but they are rarely found in concentrated forms, which makes their extraction and processing challenging.
Some common uses of rare earth elements include:
- Electronics: Used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices.
- Renewable Energy: Essential for wind turbines and electric vehicle batteries.
- Defence: Important for military applications like jet engines, missile guidance systems, and satellites.
- Medical: Utilized in medical imaging and diagnostic equipment.
Earlier in 2025, India launched the National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM) with an expenditure of about
India is also negotiating a pact with Chile to access critical minerals like copper and Lithium. “Chile is the biggest producer of copper and the second-biggest producer of lithium and we are (doing) long-term investments to assure that those reserves will last long. We want to, of course, not only export the raw material, but also add value to them. This is one of the things we discussed with Prime Minister Modi, that the lithium, copper, molybdenum and other renewable energies, other minerals, critical minerals are going to be in the CEPA—the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement—that we have decided to start negotiating,” Chile President Gabriel Boric said in an interview recently in India.
ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY FOR MINING
With the US, China and countries like India focusing on the minerals and rare earths, smart technologies will be deployed for rapid and responsible extraction.
In the digital era, AI, smart devices and green technologies are dependent on critical minerals. From personal devices to electric mobility to smart chips, nearly every industry in every economy depends on critical minerals, directly or indirectly. The next phase of growth of the mining industry is being shaped by the very technologies that use its output.
A slew of emerging technologies is helping make mining smarter, greener and safer. The use of AI and automation is helping the mining industry in several aspects of its activities. These include site exploration; terrain data; ore sorting and predicting deposit discovery.
Specialised drones are being used above and below mines for geological data. Drones can go into narrow spaces inside caves where it would difficult or dangerous for humans to enter.
“Mining companies are implementing comprehensive digital platforms that combine IoT sensors, artificial intelligence, and advanced analytics,” says a Mordor Intelligence report. Smart Mining Market size is estimated at US$34.23 billion in 2025, and is expected to reach US$34.59 billion by 2030, according to Mordor.
Technology and geopolitics will ensure that minerals under the earth decide the new power structures of the world.
* Pranjal Sharma is a geo-economic analyst and author.