The US will do nothing militarily unless China uses force. The red line’s inviolability can be known only when China takes military action.
The US has been taking all necessary measures to deter China from doing that.
There is an apparent competition between President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump to appear tougher in handling China’s rise as a strategic challenger and assertive actor in the Indo-Pacific.
It was Donald Trump who took the first step to prevent China from taking undue advantage of the American market to sell Chinese goods and shop American materials and unleashed a tariff war. China retaliated. Joe Biden did not embark on an economic détente to end the tariff war and continued the high tariff rate on imports from China. He went many steps ahead with Congressional support to dissuade and raise cost for American companies from selling technology or investing in China in sectors that can enhance Chinese military prowess. Biden Administration has also erected barriers for Chinese companies to invest in the US in sectors that have the potential to benefit China in the field of advanced technology or military power.
Amidst election campaigns, President Biden does not want to create a perception that some of his policies are adversely affecting the American companies and consumers. Nor does he seek to engage China in an open Cold War when the Ukraine War is going on and becoming costlier by the day. Thus Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State and other officials have been periodically holding dialogues with their Chinese counterparts. President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping met briefly at the Bali G-20 summit, Xi attended the APEC summit in San Francisco and held a brief exchange of views with Biden, more recently Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen made a five-day trip to China to normalize trade relations and Secretary of State Antony Blinken is likely to visit Beijing in the near future. In addition, dialogues between the Pentagon and the Chinese military leaders have also resumed.
Joe Biden does not want China to fully side with Russia and antagonise the United States.
The talk about de-coupling with the Chinese economy has receded and so is friend-shoring the supply chains. The US strategy is to keep holding dialogues with China to contain Chinese support to Russia. It is more important because Donald Trump has objected to war aid to Ukraine and the US cannot afford to simultaneously and completely antagonize Russia and China. It is important to underline that Russia too does not want US-China rapprochement during its crucial military operations in Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister thus rushed to Beijing and had a meeting with Xi Jinping soon after Yellen’s trip to China.
Nevertheless, US public efforts to negotiate with China to restore normalcy have not been rewarding yet. The trust level between the US and China has touched the bottom. Ever since Speaker of the House of Representatives visited Taiwan, China has demonstrated its anger, frustration and its military dexterity to annex Taiwan, if necessary by force. Joe Biden, on the other hand, publicly assured defending Taiwan, if attacked, only to be followed by an official statement that Washington’s policy towards Taiwan remains unchanged. Now frequently Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan airspace and the regularity has increased after the pro-independence party won the Taiwanese national election. Xi Jinping has drawn the red line on the Taiwan Strait issue and has cautioned Washington multiple times not to defy it.
The US, of course, will do nothing militarily, unless China uses force. The red line’s inviolability can be known only when China takes military action. The US in the meantime has been taking all necessary measures to deter China from doing that. One measure in this regard is the Camp David Agreement signed by the US, Japan and South Korea to deepen triangular defence capability to meet any challenge from China or its ally North Korea; that does not hesitate to repeatedly flex its missile muscle. The second step is formation of another strategic triangle consisting of the US, Japan and the Philippines by inviting the Filipino and the Japanese leaders to the US at the same time. Bringing Japan and South Korea together earlier and Philippines and Japan now are diplomatic masterstrokes by the Biden Administration. Regional animosities and mistrust between Japan and South Korea and the Philippines and Japan spanning decades made it difficult for the US to coordinate its military strategies in this region. Now it will be much easier. The third important pillar of the US strategy is the Quad, which was brought into active life by Trump in 2017 after ten years of hibernation. Joe Biden elevated it to highest level of regular meetings and dialogues. Quad consisting of the US, Japan, India and Australia is surely not a military pact. But the Quad members do hold joint naval exercises and send messages across.
More recently, the US created another quadrilateral group consisting of the US, Japan, Australia and the Philippines and held sophisticated naval exercises in South China Sea where China claims sovereignty over 90% of its water. China, expectedly, conducted a naval drill around the same time in the South China Sea to demonstrate its resolve to meet any challenges to its ambitions. Philippines and Japan have both not only reinforced and strengthened their defence cooperation with the US but also are in the process of acquiring additional defence equipment and weapons.
How the outcome of the US election will impact the Indo-Pacific is not difficult to visualize. Donald Trump has hinted that he will, of course, try to negotiate with China and not isolate it. But by saying that, if elected, he will raise tariffs by 60% or more on certain imports from China, he has hinted that the economic Cold War with China will persist.
Successive US administrations have vowed that the US would not tolerate the rise of a rival power that can threaten US’ leadership in the world. Not much of a difference between the Republicans and the Democrats on fundamental issues related to US-China ties exists. That means the stress and tension in the Indo-Pacific will survive the 2024 US elections and may get more complicated as both Washington and Beijing keep developing their respective power to deter each other.
Chintamani Mahapatra is Founder Chairperson, Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies and formerly Professor at JNU.