In Karnataka, the BJP now has a formal and formidable alliance with the JD(S). In Bihar, the INDI Alliance had a major advantage as long as the JD(U) was a member. Now the tables have decisively turned.
The dominant narrative since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections has been that the BJP has become so dominant that its erstwhile allies got scared that it will gobble up their political space. For many analysts and commentators, the heady victory of a bigger mandate in 2019 made the BJP a tad cocksure and arrogant. Within days of the new cabinet being sworn in, there was talk of how allies with more than a dozen MPs like the Shiv Sena and the JD(U) were treated “shoddily” by being offered crumbs in the form of cabinet berths. The JD(U) in fact declined to join the cabinet. Then came the bitter fracture with the Shiv Sena in the aftermath of the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly elections. The fracture and the wounds have deepened since the Eknath Shinde faction vertically split the Shiv Sena and joined hands with the BJP. Then came the parting of ways with the Akali Dal, the oldest BJP ally, over the three farm reform laws that have since been withdrawn. Then came the angry reaction by AIADMK of trashing its BJP alliance, holding BJP Tamil Nadu president K. Annamalai responsible for disparaging the regional party. And of course, then Nitish Kumar of the JD(U) changed sides yet again. All this transpired till the end of 2022.
In contrast, a bruised and battered opposition started making efforts in earnest to forge an alliance that could challenge and even defeat the formidable BJP. Nitish Kumar played a key role, travelling across states and meeting leaders of various opposition parties. By May, soon after the Congress won a handsome victory in the Karnataka Assembly elections, efforts to forge an opposition alliance started really gathering momentum. Then came the famous meeting in Patna where people saw a galaxy of opposition leaders launch the INDI Alliance. This was followed up by another big meeting in Mumbai where it was decided that, to the extent possible, the INDI Alliance would put of a single candidate against the BJP. Senior Congress leader P. Chidambaram went to the extent of saying that it could be possible to field a “joint” candidate against the BJP in as many as 400 seats. There was a visible buzz around the INDI Alliance and the BJP started looking vulnerable. The CVoter opinion poll conducted for the bi-annual Mood of the Nation issue of the India Today magazine did give the NDA a majority. But it was a truncated NDA and even the BJP numbers were down.
This was the time analysts stated debating regularly about the vulnerability of the BJP in some key states. West Bengal, Bihar, Maharashtra and Karnataka were identified as the states where the BJP and the NDA could lose a considerable number of seats. The four states together send 158 Members of Parliament. Of them, the BJP on its own had won 83 in 2019. Along with then NDA partners, the BJP had won more than 125. Now, with erstwhile NDA partners like the Shiv Sena and JD(U) gone, it would be inevitable for the NDA tally to drop. More importantly, there seemed a high possibility of even the BJP numbers dropping significantly in these states for various reasons specific to the states. This was the time when critics of the Narendra Modi regime started looking at the political situation with the glimmer of hope. An activist cum politician, who had a career as a psephologist, wrote a logically argued column stating while the BJP would remain the largest party in the Lok Sabha, a united opposition (INDI Alliance) could bring down the BJP tally to less than 240. In such a scenario, Narendra Modi would have to deal with allies the way Atal Bihari Vajpayee used to do during the first NDA regime. It was argued that “aides” who would join the government or support it from outside would extract their pound of flesh. This would be visible to all and sundry and the BJP monolith would start to crack up. That is because critics and analysts do not consider Modi as a consensus building “liberal” elder, the way Vajpayee was.
And yet, here we are today. Let’s look at the four vulnerable states first. In Karnataka, the BJP now has a formal and formidable alliance with the JD(S). In 2019, the BJP on its own had secured a 52% vote share in the state. You can add even a portion of the traditional vote share of the JD(S) and do your own math. In Maharashtra, both the Shiv Sena and the NCP have vertically split, with the factions having more MLAs and MPs as NDA allies. On top of that, the Congress is being hollowed out in the state as leader after leader makes a beeline for one of the three parties that constitute the NDA. Now Bihar. The INDI Alliance had a major advantage as long as the JD(U) was a member. Now the tables have decisively turned. To be sure, the repeated u-turns of Nitish Kumar have not made him very popular. And an energised RJD led by young Tejashwi Yadav is a potent political force right now. But it is arithmetic that usually matters in Bihar and the numbers are with the NDA. Finally, West Bengal. After the TMC won a landslide victory in the 2021 Assembly elections, it was not content just celebrating its famous victory. In many parts of the state, goons “representing” the party unleashed a murderous series of attacks on BJP supporters. So widespread was the violence that the BJP appeared battered into submission and humiliation. Most thought BJP supporters might not even step out to vote in 2024 out of fear. And then Sandeshkhali happened and the political landscape has changed dramatically. There is visible anger against the goon culture and “tolabazi” of the TMC. And there is a visible sense of excitement again among BJP supporters. The visuals of women chasing and thrashing a TMC strongman have done more damage to the TMC than anything else.
So much for the four states. Now the BJP is close to finalising alliances with the BJD and the TDP. Talks are also going on with the AIADMK and the Akali Dal. If they succeed, the NDA will be back to where it was in 1999. The only party not to be in this NDA would be TMC. There will another key difference. In the old NDA, the BJP was the first among equals. In this NDA, the BJP will be the towering leader.
Yashwant Deshmukh is Founder & Editor in Chief of CVoter Foundation and Sutanu Guru is Executive Director.