A crucial point overlooked by Narendra Modi’s detractors is that NaMo begins with a foundation of trust among the people, established by his two-decade track record.
In May 2023, I predicted the highest-ever tally for the Bharatiya Janata Party in the 2024 general elections. Months before the 2023-end state elections, and the Ayodhya Ram Temple inauguration, I wrote on my blog that the question was not whether the BJP would win or not, but rather how many seats it would add to its existing tally. A big win for the ruling party looked a certainty based on several factors, including the government’s performance, Narendra Modi’s popularity, the “labharthi” vote bank, and the absence of any major issue of popular discontent. In addition, the BJP benefits from three strong factors—its organisational strength, the electoral acumen of Narendra Modi-Amit Shah, and the crisis in the Indian National Congress, which is beholden to a past-its-prime dynasty, and persists with strategies that have not yielded favourable results against Modi since 2002.
Even with the occurrence of a black swan event like the pandemic, Prime Minister Modi’s approval was not significantly affected. There are several reasons for this. The Modi government has delivered on its main manifesto promises, including the abrogation of Article 370 and the construction of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya. Right from its first term, the Modi government focused on extending basic amenities to every citizen of India. The government achieved last-mile delivery, overcoming logistical and geographical challenges to ensure that all citizens have access to vital services. Several initiatives were launched to empower and uplift the masses—housing and toilets, water and electricity connections, Skill India and Mudra, and financial and digital inclusion. This was not a vote-base expansion exercise, although it did have that effect. For example, the Jal Jeevan Mission team airlifted labour and materials to reach difficult terrain and laid specially insulated pipes to ensure water flow in extremely cold weather in Ladakh villages. Some of these settlements were so small that they may not matter from an electoral perspective; however, they are equal citizens of India, who were neglected in the previous decades, but not by the Modi government.
Another crucial point overlooked by Modi’s detractors is that NaMo begins with a foundation of trust among the people, established by his two-decade track record. Despite occasional questioning of his decisions, his intentions for India and his “parivaar jan”, are never doubted by a significant portion of the population.
Rahul Gandhi once said in a media interview, “Everyone tells me Modi’s strength is his incorruptible image, so I’m going to rip that apart.” Efforts from the Gandhi scion and the Congress party to undermine Modi’s image have been largely unsuccessful because, in terms of corruption, the dynasty-ruled Congress is perceived extremely unfavourably by the public. The Adani jibes do not work either because every Opposition Chief Minister is wooing the business tycoon to invest in their states. The Opposition thought that the electoral bonds issue would do wonders. However, all prominent parties are in the bonds’ wagon. If the BJP getting 4-5x more contribution than the Congress disrupts the level playing field, DMK getting 100x the amount than AIADMK disrupts the level playing field as well. If quid pro quo is suspected, it should apply to all the encashers. Had the prominent Opposition parties not encashed the bonds, they would have had the moral authority to target the BJP. Of course, nobody, including the judiciary, seems concerned that the political funding will revert to the completely non-transparent old way of cash transactions.
Then there is the “democracy in danger” narrative, driven domestically as well as internationally. It does not find many takers because worse transgressions have happened under the Congress rule; and at the state level, the ruling parties from the Opposition alliance are not particularly tolerant of dissent or criticism. Just to give one example, nearly 120 FIRs were lodged against citizens for criticising the Kerala CM in his previous term. None of the Opposition leaders have a spotless record when it comes to corruption allegations or upholding freedom of expression, and do not possess the higher political ethics or pan-India popularity that is required to dent the image of a highly popular leader like NaMo. The fact that some leaders from the Opposition often make statements that are easily perceived as anti-India or anti-Hindus, does not help their collective cause either.
The TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor worked for Modi until the 2019 elections. In 2024, TINA has been replaced with a pro-incumbency factor because of the Modi government’s decade-long performance, and its ability to shield India from the economic impact of Covid-19 as well as the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It is lazy to attribute Modi’s popularity to his “Hindutva” image, and strategically disastrous to think that throwing random allegations at him or supporting real or engineered protests, will help in turning the tide against him.
In a decade, the Modi government has given dignity to crores of Indians by providing them with basic amenities, food security, housing, toilets, gas connections, medical coverage, banking accounts, loans to start small businesses, plugging the leakages through direct transfers… While some parties offer free money to women or free electricity, the Modi government has hiked its target of “lakhpati didis” to 3 crore women and has embarked on a solar revolution to make electricity free for households—keeping with the Modi mantra of empowerment and not entitlement. In the near term, the focus on creating robust social capital has ensured that demography does not become a big challenge, and in the medium to long run, this social capital will enable India to reap rich demographic dividends.
The Opposition neither consistently disputes the development numbers that NaMo gives out in almost all his speeches, nor effectively presents an alternative model from one of the Opposition-ruled states, the way Modi had successfully presented the Gujarat model when he was in the running to be the Prime Minister of India.
The Modi government has also established time and again that it values Indian lives. This is contentious to state given the 2002 riots baggage Modi is forced to carry despite the Supreme Court’s clean chit. However, be it the surgical strikes to impart costs on Pakistan for sponsoring terror, evacuating Indians safely from conflict zones abroad, refusing to succumb to the pressure of a global pharmaceutical giant to approve its Covid vaccine without local trials, or providing free ration to 80 crore people during the pandemic—the premium put on the Indian lives has been evident. This is slowly but surely shifting the prevalent thinking that we are too many to care for a few.
The less talked about, but long-term high-impact achievements of the Narendra Modi government include the mainstreaming of the Northeast, de-hyphenation from Pakistan, drastic improvement in internal security, and the tightening of the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act. The Modi government has also battled the Nehruvian idea of India that puts the burden of secularism solely on the majority community and that frowned upon any display of religious sentiments by the Hindus. Narendra Modi made it cool to be a Hindu by proudly practising his religion publicly. He did so without discriminating against other communities, and in the process, exposed the pseudo-secular leaders, who started temple-hopping, the moment Hindus found their voice thanks to a political environment that did not suffocate them.
A wave of transformative changes has surged through the nation in the last decade, characterised by both individual and collective empowerment. The improved governance has resulted in a shift in expectations as well as power dynamics with the citizenry breaking free from the system of political patronage and expecting a higher standard of government deliverance. The majority community has rejected the veto that the minorities held and is unlikely to revert to being treated as third-class citizens. Instead, they demand that secularism and tolerance are reciprocal principles. Indians have become aspirational, and want governments that can give wings to their dreams, rather than glorify poverty and slums. This transformation is irreversible, heralding a positive trajectory for India’s future.
Regardless of whether the BJP remains in power in the post-Modi era or not, this shift is entrenched, and unless political parties adapt to it, survival will prove challenging in a ‘Modi’fied Bharat.
Semu Bhatt is a strategic adviser and author specialising in governance, geopolitics, and conflict. She has a comprehensive understanding of Narendra Modi’s politics and policies and a consistent track record of accurately predicting his political decisions.