The end of the year is a time for stock taking. I have selected five items which caught my imagination.
I will begin with President XI Jinping’s China. He was “elected” head of the Communist Party of the People’s Republic of China in 2012. Next year, 2013 he became President. In 2018 he was elected President for Life. An unprecedented event. Mao Tse Tung was head of party and government from 1949 till his death in 1976. The need to elect him did not arise.
Mao let loose the disastrous Cultural Revolution, which inflicted untold misery on hundreds of millions of Chinese, including the top leadership. Only Chou-En-Lai and Deng Xiaoping were spared. Deng made Maiosm stand on its head. He introduced the slogan “one nation, two systems”. Broadly speaking, this meant “capitalist economy, communist polity”. The Deng era laid the foundations of New China. Xi is taking Deng’s policies further. Mao’s enormous portrait hangs on the front gate facing Tiananmen Square, but the name of the Great Helmsman is seldom mentioned.
President Xi Jinping was born after the founding of the People’s Republic. He has carried out drastic changes in internal and external policies. No challenger has been spared. The low profile foreign policy of China is history. Xi’s foreign policy footprints can be seen in most parts of the world.
As the global prestige of the US slips, China’s grows. Xi’s China is not yet the second global power in the world, but it is well on the way to becoming one. His Belt and Road plan will have worldwide ramifications.
The world is changing rapidly. Globalisation is taking a back seat. President Donald Trump’s contribution is not negligible. Protectionism is on the rise, so is nationalism. The decline of the Left and the near end of liberalism are all too evident.
America remains the most powerful, wealthiest, most industrialised and most innovative country on the globe. President Trump is arguably the most unpredictable occupant of the White House. Against the advice from the Pentagon he has pulled out thousands of US troops from Syria and Afghanistan. His flirting with North Korea has paid no dividends. At heart he is not enamoured either of NATO or Europe. His understanding of the new world order has no clarity. His impeachment by the House of Representatives must be a serious distraction. Two things could still get him a second term. US economy is doing well and his popularity has not been seriously eroded. He has little time for Boston Brahmins or East Coast elitists.
What is the state of Sino-US relations? That is the most complex foreign policy question. A serious Sino-US rift would be an all round disaster. Having some understanding of the near inscrutable Chinese mind, I hazard the guess that Beijing will not take the first step.
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Climate change is now no longer a myth. From the Arctic to Australia, from California to Japan, from the Pacific to the Philippines it is more than evident that the perils of climate change have not really sunk in. The indifference of the US President is worrying and wholly misguided. In the not too distant future the US cannot avoid the terrifying consequences of climate change.
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I am not clear in my mind whether Home Minister Amit Shah is an asset to the Narendra Modi government or a liability. He very often invokes the name of Sardar Patel, but does not conduct himself as the Sardar did. Neither does he have the charisma of Prime Minister Modi nor his engaging personality. Sardar Patel was strong, respected and a wise statesman. I heard him speak several times. He spoke gently and softly. He did not poke fingers at Opposition benches while speaking in Parliament. Never did Sardar Sahib ever say, “Aap ko sunna padega—you will have to listen”. This Amit Shah said during the last session in the Lok Sabha. Shah is sitting on Sardar Patel’s chair. Why does he not try to emulate the great man? Nevertheless there is no denying the fact that Amit Shah is a forceful, efficient, hard-working minister. My brother-in-law, the Chief Minister of Punjab tells me how polite, courteous, gracious and helpful Amit Shah is.
One other disagreeable characteristic of the distinguished and heavy weight Home Minister is his penchant of making electoral predictions. He was wrong on Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Haryana and most recently on Jharkhand. Rahul Kanwal of India Today interviewed Amit Shah that the chances of the BJP winning were slender. Amit Shah replied, “Rahulji aap dekhna, hamari bahut badi jeet hogi.” Well. Well. There was no jeet.
The Congress now rules six states. Where is “Congress mukt Bharat”? Of course there is no challenge to the Modi government at the Centre.
I am now over 90 years old. I have been a Cabinet Minister, Minister of State, Member of the Rajya Sabha and twice of the Lok Sabha. I have worked with several Home Ministers, but the respected Amit Shah is unique.
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The outgoing Chief of the Staff, four days before his retirement, has once again flouted the well established rule that no member of the armed forces should make pronouncements on political matters. This iron clad rule has been flouted by no less a person than General Bipin Rawat. This is not the first that he has done so. Sometime back he held forth on Kashmir. Was he pulled up by the Defence Minister? No one outside North Block knows. It is to be hoped that, on retirement he is not appointed a governor or ambassador or the newly created Joint Chief of Staff
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Pakistan’s only Hindu Test cricketer has been lying low since the life ban was imposed on him for spot-fixing. He is now in the news following Shoaib Akhtar’s statement that Danish Kaneria faced blatant discrimination because he was a Hindu. That he put up with his appalling treatment is understandable. He comes from a poor family. He had nowhere to go. The only source of income came from cricket. In his statement he has conceded that he took his humiliation in his stride. He said he is a proud Hindu and a proud Pakistani. His views ought to be accepted if not respected. Unlike India, Pakistan is not a secular country. Azaruddin captained India’s test team. Shami is at the moment one of our outstanding fast test bowlers.