The Chinese side is simply indifferent to the goodwill of the United States.
Recently there seem to be some signs of easing of relations between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and Special Envoy for Climate Change John Kerry have visited Beijing and held talks with the top echelons of the Chinese Communist Party. It is better to have détente than conflict between great powers, as it is conducive to international peace. For this reason, we are of course very happy to see a reduction of tensions in the relationship. However, if the détente is only based on false appearances and an unstable foundation, or if it is only wishful thinking and unilateral expectation, then such reduced hostility is very open to question. In my opinion, the current easing of relations between the United States and China has a number of questionable aspects.
In terms of the current expression of Washington D.C.’s position on China, it has adopted relatively mild wording, represented by the remarks made by Treasury Secretary Yellen at a press conference after her trip to Beijing: “President Biden and I do not look at the United States-China relationship in terms of the framework of a conflict of great powers, and we believe that the world is big enough for both of our countries to prosper together.” If this is the true thinking of the United States’ policy team toward China, then I am not ashamed to say that this is a bit too naive and a complete fantasy. There is an old Chinese saying that “one slap does not make a sound,” and the problem between the United States and China today is that although the US government has always acted with good intentions, Washington harbours an unrealistic hope that the two great powers—the United States and People’s Republic of China—do not have to enter into conflict and that they can be tolerant of each other and develop their own strength within their respective spheres of influence. But does the Chinese side really have the same good intentions? In my opinion, the answer is of course no.
On 6 July 2023, not long after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken left China and before Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen arrived in Beijing, Xi Jinping made some very bellicose remarks. During an inspection of the People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Military Region offices, Xi stated that not only does he believe China’s “security situation has become more volatile and uncertain,” but he called on the military to “deepen its warfare operational planning and preparation,” and clearly and explicitly told the military to “accelerate the improvement of its ability to win a war.” [1] These remarks are of course directed at the future situation in the Taiwan Strait. Xi Jinping has once again made it clear to the outside world that China is prepared to use force to resolve the Taiwan Strait issue. It is well known that the most likely focal point of intense conflict between the United States and China is Taiwan. Xi Jinping chose the moment when the United States side had repeatedly expressed goodwill to the Chinese side to make such an inflammatory statement. Where is the effort to try to avoid a major power conflict? Although the Chinese side treated the visiting United States special envoys with a high degree of hospitality, to the United States the real issue of substantive significance is the hope that military communication channels can be reopened to avoid the risk of an unexpected incident [like the United States’ EP-3 surveillance aircraft’s collision with a Chinese fighter jet in 2000] that could lead to war. But China has from beginning to end not made any concessions, and it is obvious that the Chinese side is simply indifferent to the goodwill of the United States.
In July 2021, Rush Doshi, former Deputy Senior Director for China and Taiwan in the Biden administration, published “The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order”. The book analyzes the adjustment of China’s foreign relations strategy toward the United States from the Deng Xiaoping era’s “韜光养晦” tao guang yang hui—“maintain a low profile, hide our abilities and bide our time”—to President Hu Jintao’s more aggressive attempt to “積極作為”—“actively accomplish something”—to the Xi Jinping era’s “vigorous and proactive” adjustments to United States strategy, pointing out that China has since 1989 established an aggressive three-step strategy of “weakening, building up, and expanding.” I would recommend that American policymakers on China take a serious look at this book, which is based on rigorous data analysis. One of the most insightful points in the book—and one that I highly agree with—is the following sentence: “The belief that China’s dictatorship in recent years is due to the character of President Xi Jinping is in fact a misunderstanding. It ignores the fact that China’s behavior is actually rooted in a long-standing consensus within the Chinese Communist Party.” [2] In other words, it is the long-term strategic intention of the Chinese Communist Party to compete with the US for world power, to replace the US as the global hegemon, and to establish a new international geopolitical order. If we can realise this point, we will understand what wishful thinking Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen engages in with her expectation that the US and the PRC can prosper together without conflict. I do not think that a policy toward China based on such wishful thinking can bring sufficient protection to the national interests of the United States. I hope that the United States will not have any more illusions about the Chinese Communist Party.
[1] https:/s/twitter.com/RFA_Chinese/status/1677022975013408786
[2] The Long Game: China’s Strategy to Undermine the U.S. and Establish Global Hegemony (Rush Doshi, translated by Li Ningyi) (Eight Banners Culture, September 2022), page 38
Wang Dan is a well-known Chinese dissident and leader of the Chinese democracy movement. He is director of the Dialogue China think tank.
Translated from Chinese by Scott Savit.