This war involves Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, Iran and the US.
It has been four months now that Israel has rushed into Gaza, seeking retribution for the 7 October 2023 attacks. Its professed aims of the war—the first one it had declared in 50 years—were to eliminate Hamas, free the hostages and ensure security for Israel.
Four months down the line, its ground invasion has swept from north to south and back again. Gaza has been bombed to rubble. Israel claims that an estimated 8,000 Hamas operatives have been eliminated (presumably buried under rubble), but the top leadership—including the “most wanted” trio of Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Marvan Issa—are still free. The few hostages that have been recovered have come largely through a prisoner swap—in fact, “friendly fire” has killed quite a few of them. Though its own casualties have been restricted (just around 190 so far) its security is far more fragile, and it finds itself more isolated and vulnerable than at any time since pre-1967.
Israel has lost the war of perception completely. It has moved from victim to aggressor in just three short weeks, as protests against its indiscriminate actions rise across the world. It has been taken to the International Court of Justice for “genocide.” And it needs the US veto to stave off numerous United Nations resolutions against it. Its aura of invincibility has been diminished, and that is its greatest loss.
And its threats have only multiplied. Hamas is still fighting and firing rockets into Israel with impunity. The West Bank is in ferment with attacks on Israeli forces and settlements taking place virtually every day. Iraqi and Syrian militia are ramping up attacks on Israel and US targets, forcing the US to retaliate with their own missile strikes and perpetuating a cycle of violence. And in all this, the specter of Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iran, looms large.
Hezbollah have stepped up their rocket attacks and raids in to Israel in solidarity with Hamas. After all they, like Hamas, the Houthis and other militia, are all part of the “Axis of Resistance” propped up by Iran, and would act in conjunction. Hezbollah will be an even more difficult proposition. It is three times the size of Hamas and has around 100,000 well-armed and motivated fighters, with an arsenal of over 130,000 rockets. As the Hezbollah ramps up their action, Israel has retaliated with drone and missile strikes deep into Lebanon, killing Saleh al Arouri, the deputy chief of Hamas, senior Hezbollah leaders and Brigadier Syed Razi Mansavi, a top Iranian advisor, right in the heart of Beirut. Hawks in the Israeli government, including their Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, favour a pre-emptive strike into Lebanon, but opening the northern front will strain it tremendously. The Hezbollah fought Israel to a standstill during their 2006 invasion of Lebanon. It is much stronger now and another Lebanon war, while still engaged in Gaza, could have worse consequences.
Simultaneously, the Houthis in Yemen, whose motto is “Death to America; Death to Israel,” have fired long range missiles into Israel in support of Hamas. They used their strategic location astride the Red Sea and the Straits of Bab el Mandeb, to target Israeli ships, and then expanded the scope to attack all shipping there. The threat to the crucial waterways through which 15% of world shipping passes, prompted the US to launch “Operation Prosperity Guardian”—an international maritime coalition to ensure free and safe movement through the waters. The coalition got a lukewarm response, but US helicopters sank Houthi boats, and US and UK strikes hit 16 Houthi locations with air strikes and Tomahawk missiles. In spite of that, Houthi missiles continue to fire, and these actions increase the chances of a wider confrontation.
The actions in the Middle East camouflage the activities of two major players—USA and Iran —who are both using proxies to assert their influence. The US will ensure that Israel retains its pre-eminence in the region, even if it means the complete destruction of Gaza. Their support, in the form of two carrier groups and air and missile strikes at militia bases, are subtle warnings to other parties (read Iran) to keep out of the fray. But the US too is being singed by increasing attacks on its bases in Iraq and Syria. This war has deflected them from another theater, Ukraine. Ukraine is now conclusively on the back foot, and there are questions asked in the US about the feasibility of continuing aid for a losing cause. The US policy failure in Ukraine (and Afghanistan, before that) has to be made up by ensuring the success of Israel. Else the USA will lose influence in this vital theater as well.
Iran is the shadowy player which has guided and armed its proxies, without getting directly involved. They will definitely like to see Israel weakened and isolated in a multi arena war with Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and other militia groups they sponsor. That will break the rapprochement process and prevent any coming together of Israel and Saudi. But in an unexpected turn of events, the war struck Iranian soil as well, when over a hundred mourners were killed by explosions near Teheran. In retaliation, Iran fired missiles into Pakistan at the bases of Jaish al Adl, the Sunni militant group that had carried out the attack. And in a predictable response, Pakistan launched its own counter strike in an operation ambitiously titled, Marg Bar Sarmachar. The revival of Shia-Sunni passions at this dangerous juncture could well have been orchestrated by the US, to show that proxies could be used to hurt both sides.
WILL THE CONFLAGRATION SPREAD?
In four months of war, Israel has flattened 60% of Gaza’s infrastructure, displaced 85% of its population, killed 24,000 (with 8,000 missing) and wounded 56,000 without distinction of whether it is a Hamas fighter or a civilian. That is thrice the civilian deaths caused in two years by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Israel has promised to continue the war till it eliminates Hamas and recovers its hostages. But the longer the war goes on, the more isolated it becomes. Should Iran galvanise all its proxies to a launch a coordinated series of strikes, it will force Israel into a multi-front war. It may even provoke an Israeli attack on Lebanon (like it did disastrously in 1982 and 2006). Also, should any of the attacks on US bases or ships cause inordinate casualties, it could bring USA in to direct conflict with Iran, maybe through a series of punitive strikes. Then there is the wild card event of Iran, Turkey, Qatar or any Arab nation deciding to send a relief flotilla to Gaza Strip on humanitarian grounds, which could clash with Israeli warships imposing the blockade. Any of these events could go out of hand and widen the confrontation to engulf the entire Middle East.
Nor has much attention been given to the end state. Hamas will be eliminated, but will merely surface in another avatar. But then what? Will it reduce the threat to Israel from Gaza, the West Bank, or from Hezbollah? Will Israel take over Gaza, as it did earlier only to withdraw? Or will they ask the Palestinian Authority to run it (which they are unwilling to do). Who will rebuild Gaza and resettle the 1.5 million displaced Gazan? There is also the major issue of a separate Palestinian state. Whether Israel likes it or not, it is back in the spotlight and will have to be addressed and satisfactorily resolved once the guns stop firing. Else the attacks and counter attacks will continue in the continual cycle of violence of the Middle East.
Ajay Singh is the award-winning author of seven books and over 200 articles. His latest book, “Ukraine, Gaza, Taiwan…… A World at War” is being released next month.