Incidents of “near collision” are not unheard of between the US and China, however, as the relationship touches a new low, these are becoming increasingly frequent. On 26 May 2023, a statement released by the US Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) said that a People’s Republic of China J-16 fighter pilot performed an unnecessarily aggressive manoeuvre during the intercept of a US Air Force RC-135 aircraft. “The PRC pilot flew directly in front of the nose of the RC-135, forcing the U.S. aircraft to fly through its wake turbulence.” In another statement released on 3 June 2023, the USINDOPACOM said that when the USS Chung-Hoon (DDG 93) and HMCS Montreal (FFH 336) were conducting a routine south to north Taiwan Strait transit, PLA(N) LUYANG III DDG 132 (PRC LY 132) “executed manoeuvres in an unsafe manner in the vicinity of Chung-Hoon. The PRC LY 132 overtook Chung-Hoon on their port side and crossed their bow at 150 yards.” The worst collision in 2001 between the EP-3 and one of the J-8s, resulted in the death of a Chinese pilot, emergency landing and detention of the EP-3 along with its 24 crew members in Hainan.
One of the “near collisions” happened the day US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin was making his speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual security summit organized by the International Institute of Strategic Studies, UK in tandem with the Singaporean government. In fact, the US had sought a bilateral meeting between Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defence Minister Gen Li Shangfu, but was spurned by China. China was indicating that how a sanctioned defence minister could engage in talks as if nothing had happened. Furthermore, both locked horns at the high-level security dialogue. On 3 June, Austin in his speech said, “The whole world has a stake in maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. The security of commercial shipping lanes and global supply chains depends on it. And so does freedom of navigation worldwide. Make no mistake: conflict in the Taiwan Strait would be devastating.” In a charged rebuttal on 4 June, General Li Shangfu said that “It is undeniable that a severe conflict or confrontation between China and the US will be an unbearable disaster for the world.”
From the above posturing, it is clear that US-China relations have further nosedived and that both are playing the hardball. Austin’s pronouncement could be construed as a veiled warning to China, whereas Li Shangfu’s reply takes the US-China conflict to a higher level that will bring unbearable disaster to the entire world. Undoubtedly, the simmering tension has forced China to focus more on its security that could be discerned from the meeting of the Central National Security Commission convened on 30 May. The meeting emphasised that the complexity and severity of the national security issues we are currently facing have increased significantly. The national security front must establish strategic self-confidence, strengthen confidence in victory, and fully see its own advantages and favourable conditions. We must adhere to bottom-line thinking (底线思维) and highest-limit thinking (极限思维), and be prepared to withstand the major test of high winds, choppy waters and even dangerous storms.”
The bottom-line thinking and highest-limit thinking together with choppy waters demonstrate that Xi Jinping is preparing China for a protracted contest with the US and both the thoughts are likely to be tested in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. The increasingly high number of “near collisions” is a manifestation. Li Shangfu emphasised that “Taiwan is China’s Taiwan, how to solve the Taiwan issue is the business of the Chinese people, and intervention of any external power is unacceptable. The DPP authorities who keep soliciting foreign support for Taiwan secession and the external forces who seek to contain China with Taiwan and interfere in China’s internal affairs are the root causes of tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the largest trouble makers that are changing the status quo in the Strait. If anyone dares to separate Taiwan from China, the Chinese military will not hesitate for one second to take action. We fear no one and will resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity no matter at what cost.”
Li Shangfu’s speech in Shangri-la is not very different from the tone and tenor of speeches of other Chinese leaders. The speech echoes China’s State Councillor and Foreign Minister, Qin Gang’s speech at China Development Forum on 27 Mach 2023, and Premier Li Qiang’s address at the Bo Ao Forum in Hainan on 30 March 2023. For example, Qin Gang had said that while humankind is confronted with unprecedented multiple crises and challenges: “Some country, in order to maintain its hegemony and out of selfish interests, has been stoking tensions and confrontation along the ideological line, seeking decoupling, disrupting supply chains, erecting high fences around small yards, and even attempting to resurrect the Cold War and tear the world apart.” This is nothing but reinforcement of Xi Jinping’s advocacy of building a community of shared future, which since 2013 has been incorporated as one of the pillars of China’s foreign policy.
Building a community of shared future is China’s long-term vision for transforming global governance and making it compatible with China’s own governance model. The concept upholds interconnectedness, mutual interests, progress and sustainable development of mankind as a whole. It argues in favour of a dialogue of civilisations, common development and common security. From the Chinese perspective, it is an antidote to hegemonism, unilateralism, protectionism, block politics, and cold war mentality. Other discourses such as the Global Development Initiative (GDI), Global Security Initiative (GSI) and Global Civilization Initiative (GCI) have been fed to the basic framework of the community of shared future. The New Type of International Relations is the second pillar having two distinctive flanks—major country diplomacy and China’s relationship with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. The Chinese Style Modernisation has been added to the list, thus making Chinese “wisdom and model” very different from the American model. These initiatives are presented as important public goods provided by China for the benefit of humanity, as well as China’s vision for global development and governance.
* B.R. Deepak is Professor, Center of Chinese and Southeast Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.