It seems Xi Jinping is very distrustful of the senior cadres around him, and has adopted an iron-fisted approach.
Li Shangfu, a member of the Chinese State Council [PRC Cabinet] and Minister of Defense, has not made any public appearances since he attended the Third China-Africa Peace and Security Forum held in Beijing on 29 August 2023. Amid the controversy, the United Kingdom’s Financial Times, the United States’ Washington Post and Reuters news service all recently reported that Li has been removed from his post and is under prosecution. From the disappearance of another state councilor—former foreign minister Qin Gang—in June, to the current case of Li Shangfu, two of China’s five vice state councilors have mysteriously fallen from power in just three months. No official explanation has been given to the public. Considering the fact that the purged officials occupied the highest positions in defense and foreign affairs—both of utmost importance to national security—we may deduce that Xi Jinping has started a new round of purges within the Chinese Communist Party’s highest echelons.
Why is it necessary to carry out a high level purge? This is a question of general concern to the outside world. At present, there is not enough evidence to know the specific reasons for certain, but there is some speculation from international observers that I think from the opposite side of the coin can be ruled out.
For example, some people say that Li Shangfu was purged because of corruption. That sounds right. It has long been believed that the Chinese military is far more corrupt than local governments because it is protected from public scrutiny by a veil of secrecy. Li Shangfu’s long career in charge of weapons and equipment, and his dual role as director of the Xichang Satellite Launch Center, which involves secret military budgets with huge amounts of money, made it very easy for him to engage in corruption, and he has always been regarded as a fat cat. According to the usual practice of Chinese officials, it should not be an empty rumor that Li Shangfu has serious corruption problems. However, as a member of Xi Jinping’s inner circle, Li Shangfu must have undergone a rigorous vetting process by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection before he was promoted to the high position of Minister of Defense. If he had serious corruption problems which were unacceptable to Xi Jinping, he would not have been able to enter the inner circle of senior core leaders of the Communist Party. So why were the so-called corruption problems of Li Shangfu only dealt with after he had served less than a year in office? Moreover, the crackdown on the corruption of Li Shangfu indirectly impinges on Xi Jinping’s authority. After all, this is a top ranking cadre selected by Xi, so should Xi not be held responsible? Of course, it is very likely that Li Shangfu’s final conviction will be in the name of “corruption,” but I do not think this is the real reason for his downfall. After all, Xi Jinping has long used fighting corruption as a tool of political struggle.
Some people also say that the removal of Li Shangfu as Minister of Defense is meant to ease United States-China relations. The United States has imposed sanctions on Li, and as long as Li is still the Minister of Defense military exchanges between China and the United States will not be able to resume smoothly. I think this is an unconvincing explanation. First, if China really wanted to resume military exchanges, it could send a more senior military leader than Li Shangfu, such as the two vice-chairmen of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party Central Committee, to meet with the United States military, and then replace Li Shangfu at the end of his two-year term, which would make more sense. Second, from the fact that the wolf warrior and hard-liner toward the United States Wang Yi has returned as Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Xi Jinping’s refusal to attend the G20 Summit in New Delhi in September 2023, we cannot see that Xi Jinping is so interested in restoring and improving United States-China relations that he is replacing his own cronies to please Washington. Therefore, the explanation that Li Shangfu was replaced in order to improve relations with the United States is not at all plausible.
Although we still cannot know the truth behind Li Shangfu’s fall from power, the rapid fire replacement of two state councilors in three months gives us the impression that Xi Jinping is very distrustful of the senior cadres around him, and has adopted an iron-fisted approach. In my opinion, Xi Jinping has entered a typical “dictator’s dilemma”: he is full of suspicion, delusional about being persecuted, and has fallen into isolation, purging his own loyal followers at every turn. From Qin Gang to Li Shangfu, the way Xi Jinping cleanses the top echelons of the Communist Party is becoming increasingly reminiscent of Joseph Stalin’s purges before World War II. Without any warning, on the spur of the moment, he would be seized by a whim and condemn former close colleagues to death or exile. Such a pattern will certainly have a chilling effect within the Communist Party, and will give rise to intense anxiety among senior Communist Party cadres. But the chilling effect may not be desirable. First, if all your close associates are in a state of panic, worrying about their security at all times, how can they still do their jobs properly? Second, for officials who have serious problems of their own, in order to protect themselves in a perceived life and death struggle, the possibility greatly increases of them turning on their boss. It is certain that Xi Jinping, who is deeply enmeshed in the “dictator’s dilemma,” will become more isolated, less able to get complete and accurate information, and the probability of his making bad decisions increases exponentially.
Wang Dan is a well-known Chinese dissident and leader of the Chinese democracy movement. He is director of the Dialogue China think tank.
Translated from Chinese by Scott Savitt.