The Telugu Desam Party (TDP), which is looking to ally with the Bharatiya Janata Party in Andhra Pradesh for the upcoming Assembly and Lok Sabha elections that will be held simultaneously there, will have to offer the best deal it can, even as its main competitor in the state, the Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) will not form any alliance with the BJP, at least a pre-poll alliance.
The Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP knows that this is among the most crucial elections that it has contested, as the 73-year-old Naidu needs to do well in this election so that he can establish his son, Nara Lokesh strongly, both within the TDP and in the Andhra political sphere. Till now, Lokesh has failed to prove that he has the mass support that his father used to have. It is because of this challenge and the fact that the TDP has been out of power, both at the state and the Centre, that Nadiu is looking to tie up with the BJP. Another five years without a say in the political and administrative developments both in Hyderabad and in Delhi, will hurt the family-run TDP severely.
Andhra Pradesh sends 25 Lok Sabha Members of Parliament to Delhi and will play a key role in BJP’s quest for 400-plus seats in the forthcoming elections. In an interesting development earlier this month, while TDP chief Naidu met Union Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi on 8 February, his bête noire, Jagan Reddy met Prime Minister Narendra Modi the next day.
Even though there is no formal alliance between the BJP and the YSRCP, the latter is seen as a partner of the BJP due to its decision to stand with the BJP on contentious issues.
According to YSRCP sources, Jagan Reddy and PM Modi were on the same page on many issues that relate to the development of the state, and hence contrary to the narrative, even if TDP joins hands with the BJP, Reddy will not face a hostile Delhi.
Soon after his meeting with Shah, news from TDP camp started to emanate that the BJP has agreed to contest on four Lok Sabha seats and eight Assembly seats in the 125-member Assembly.
In 2019, the BJP had failed to win a single Lok Sabha or Assembly seat from Andhra Pradesh. In the 2014 general elections, it had won two seats which it had fought in alliance with the TDP. Out of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh, the TDP had kept 21 seats for itself, of which it won 15, and offered four to the BJP, which won two.
In 2018, however, the TDP walked out of the NDA, accusing the BJP of not keeping the promises made to the state.
Apart from the leaders of these two political parties, the political consultancy engaged by them too are sharing briefs and “independent” surveys that paint a rosy picture for their respective clients.
While Indian Political Action Campaign (I-PAC), that is now working sans its founder Prashant Kishor Pandey, is assisting the YSRCP, “Showtime Consultancy”, another relatively newly formed election consultancy that has branched out from I-PAC, is advising the TDP.
In the last few months, such independent surveys that have been strategically released in electronic media have suggested that the TDP was going to win 17 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in the general elections. This was ostensibly done to make more bargaining space for the TDP with the BJP.
While the survey done by a polling agency has given a minimum 17-18 seats to the TDP, in a similar exercise, another polling agency has given 20-24 seats to the YSRCP.
According to political observers, one of the above-mentioned agencies, was being funded by the same party for which it did the survey to show that it was going to do better than its political adversary.
BJP sources in Delhi, while speaking to The Sunday Guardian said that while a few surveys were showing the YSRCP in a poor state, Jagan Mohan Reddy’s party was in a good position and even though it may not be able to repeat its performance of winning on 22 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats, it was going to do well on at least 15-17 seats.
The YSRCP, as per their strategists, is seen as the first choice by the roughly 12% electorate belonging to the Muslim and Christian communities, who, they believe, will not vote for the YSRCP if it allies with the BJP—something which even BJP leaders acknowledge.
BJP leaders, who are working with the party’s policy in the southern state, are working on the premise that the YSRCP was still a “trusted partner” and PM Modi shared cordial relations with Jagan Reddy, who has time and again assisted the party on what they called crucial reform bills in the Rajya Sabha and the Lok Sabha.
The state Finance Minister, Buggana Rajendranath, in his budget speech on 7 February, praised the support given by the Centre to the state government.
Similarly, both Reddy and Naidu supported the Delhi Services Bill. Both of them also supported BJP nominees in the election to the offices of both the President and Vice-President of India. Also, both of the parties voted in favour of the Modi government when the Lok Sabha voted on the no-confidence motion moved by members of the Opposition.
Apart from fighting a tough political battle, Naidu is also facing legal troubles over his alleged involvement in the Rs 371 crore Andhra Pradesh State Skill Development Corporation (APSSDC) scam, which allegedly took place when he was the CM from 2014 to 2019, leading to a loss of over Rs 300 crores to the state government.
In December 2021, the state Crime Investigation Department, had registered an FIR in the case and he was arrested on 9 September 2023. Later he got bail from the High Court.
However, in January this year, the Supreme Court rejected his plea to quash the FIR registered against him. Hence, it has become more crucial for the TDP to look for a possible tie-up with the BJP, even if that means “sacrificing” a few Lok Sabha and Assembly seats.