The risk for India is that the turmoil in Pakistan could ignite a flood of refugees into India, among which would be numerous agents of the Sino-Pakistan effort to weaken India.
NEW DELHI: Internal reports of security agencies in Pakistan are giving a grim picture of the situation in the country. The high-handed approach of the Pakistan army towards the Taliban regime that came back to power in 2021 courtesy the Biden pullout from Afghanistan rankled younger Pashtuns in particular. When they took back control of Kabul for the first time since their rout in 2001, three of the six factions comprising the Taliban were what was termed by this columnist as “Free Taliban”. The term referred to those who were outside the two factions controlled by GHQ Rawalpindi and the faction controlled by the PLA (People’s Liberation Army of China). More than 80 per cent of the cadre comprised younger elements, who were part of the “Free Taliban”. The other three factions contained mostly older cadres, most of whom had been corrupted by money and other means by GHQ Rawalpindi and the PLA. The younger elements held them in contempt and over the years, began taking away more and more authority from them, a process that was almost complete by 2021, when the Taliban took over the country again. Both GHQ Rawalpindi as well as the PLA acted under the assumption that they had control over the Taliban, as was the case in the 1980s so far as GHQ Rawalpindi was concerned. They were in for a surprise, as the overbearing attitude of the Pakistan Army combined with the systematic effort to loot the mineral wealth of Afghanistan by Chinese entities soured the Taliban towards the two. In an effort to get fairer prices for their mineral wealth than what the Chinese were offering them, the Taliban turned to other countries for help, notably India.
The warming of ties between the rulers of Afghanistan and India came out into the open last week, when Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met Taliban Foreign Minister Muttaqi in Dubai, after the Pakistan military had bombarded open villages in Afghanistan, killing several women and children. In essence, the Taliban are proud Pashtuns, who are unwilling to any more accept dominance by either China or Pakistan. For a long time, emphatically since 2014, India has backed the right of Pashtuns anywhere to live a life of dignity and have their rights respected. Not just Pashtun men but Pashtun women as well have, wherever possible, excelled even in modern fields such as technology. The spirit of Pashtun empowerment has spread across the no longer valid Durand Line that was used by the British in 1893 to divide the Pashtuns, yet was retained by the post-1947 rulers of Pakistan, the Pakistan Army, which is dominated by Punjabis from the Pothohar region of Pakistan Punjab.
Pashtun unrest against GHQ Rawalpindi has been increasing in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It was only a matter of time before the Pashtuns sought to unify the Pashtun territories by armed struggle, and the same has been taking place with rising intensity since 2021. Similar is the situation in neighbouring Balochistan, where the government is in effect controlled by what locals regard as an occupation force, the Pakistan Army. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), which comprises free Baloch, now control large tracts of
Balochistan, and much of the province at night. As a consequence of being a force multiplier for the Pakistan Army, Chinese from the PRC are disliked and in some locations, attacked by the BLA. It is deeply resented that Gwadar port is part of Balochistan, yet is controlled by China. The numerous Chinese projects that are scattered throughout Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir benefit the Chinese, with a much smaller share of the loot going to those in Pakistan who are connected to the military.
Meanwhile, morale has been plummeting within the lower ranks of the Pakistan Army, as a consequence of low salaries and a miserable standard of life compared to the officer corps. As a consequence, both fee Pashtuns as well as free Baloch have notched up an increasing number of successes in their kinetic contest with the Pakistan Army. Even within Pakistan Punjab, unrest has been growing and getting manifested in violence. Because of the security challenges, including to Chinese nationals, the fate of several Chinese projects in Pakistan have been thrown into doubt, despite the huge expenditure incurred on them, almost all of which form debts owed by Pakistan to China. This is despite the fact that most of the personnel, if not all of them, are Chinese nationals, and the equipment is also sourced from China. Pressure is mounting by Beijing on the World Bank and the IMF to fund such Chinese projects until completion, although the financial viability of most of them is zero. Once Donald Trump takes charge as the US President on 20 January, it is expected that the approach of the incoming administration to such bailouts from the IMF and the IBRD will be much stiffer than has been the case during the Biden presidency. Beijing is therefore in a hurry to get loans sanctioned before Trump takes over.
The risk for India is that the turmoil in Pakistan could ignite a flood of refugees into India, among which would be numerous agents of the Sino-Pakistan effort to weaken India. In 2021, numerous CCCP-influenced elements crossed over from Myanmar after the military coup against Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, who languishes in prison forgotten by the human rights warriors of the West. As a consequence, violence was sparked off in Manipur that has not yet been extinguished. Care needs to be taken that through fencing and other means, the border between Pakistan and India gets sealed. Otherwise, a spurt of violence could erupt as a result of such crossings in the way that took place in Manipur after 2021.