NEW DELHI: After Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah of the National Conference (NC) met the top Bharatiya Janata Party leadership in Delhi recently, political circles are abuzz with speculation that the ruling party of J&K might be preparing the ground to return to an alliance with the BJP in return of statehood for the union territory.
According to a person privy to the developments, there are already murmurs of BJP ready to offer a Cabinet post to Omar’s father Farooq Abdullah, apart from giving J&K full statehood if the party joins the NDA. “If they decide to switch sides, the senior Abdullah might get a senior Cabinet berth. It all depends on the decision of the Abdullahs. Else, it’s just talk.”
Another top source suggested that four out of the six Congress MLAs in the Union Territory are willing to join the NC. However, the other two lawmakers (including the veteran Tariq Hamid Karra) are solidly with the Congress.
The source added, “What we heard is that, out of the four legislators there is a top Congress leader who may bid adieu to his party if he is given the post of Deputy Chief Minister. But voices from the National Conference indicate that they don’t want to take any Congress leader as they think it would spoil their relationship with that party. If they keep the alliance then they may not take them, but if they ditch the Congress and join hands with the BJP then there is a possibility of taking them in. Plus, the deal will also depend on what each legislator would get in return.”
A political analyst based in Kashmir said, “The NC’s partnership with the BJP in the early 2000s is seen as a controversial chapter in its history. It drew criticism from the NC’s core voter base in the Kashmir Valley, and was regarded as the root cause of its 2002 Assembly election loss. But at the time the PDP was in its prime and fought against the NC. But now there is no political force in Kashmir which can challenge the NC.”
While the NC is a part of the I.N.D.I.A bloc, and is in collaboration with the Congress in Jammu and Kashmir, the relationship between the two is rough as the NC doesn’t want to share its electoral base with anyone in Kashmir which has 47 Assembly seats, more than the Jammu division’s 43. A political expert said, “The NC has always played a tough game in not letting its supremacy slip in the Valley. For that they have done everything. And for that they may also try to elbow out Congress from the Valley. The PDP is already down. The NC may let the BJP have Jammu and by pushing out Congress it can consolidate its position in Kashmir. But they will also focus on Muslim dominated seats in Jammu region. Such a strategy will help secure their future.”
Historically as well, the relationship between the NC and Congress has experienced several ups and downs, ranging from alliances to rivalries. In the 1980s, the two parties collaborated through the Indira-Sheikh Accord, but subsequent years saw phases of competition and differing political strategies. While it was kept out of power from 2002 to 2008 by a Congress-PDP alliance, in the 2008 Assembly elections the NC again allied with the Congress to form government.
The NC, led by Omar Abdullah, secured 42 seats out of the 90 in the recently held Assembly elections. Also, out of the seven independent candidates who won the elections, four have pledged their support to the NC, aiding the party in surpassing the majority threshold in the 90-member Assembly. With the backing of these four independents, one seat of AAP and another from the CPM the NC’s effective strength increased to 48 seats, facilitating the formation of the government—not to mention the Congress’ six seats additionally supporting the NC.