The violence that erupted at a pro-monarchy protest that happened in Tinkune area of Kathmandu , around 3 km from the Tribhuvan international airport, has likely dented the perception of the pro- monarchy supporters among the general public and dashed any immediate possibility of the country going back to monarchy.
Independent observers and local journalists told the Sunday Guardian that years of the federal government’s failure to improve governance, implement economic reforms—especially in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic—and its lack of tangible results have led to widespread dissatisfaction in the country. This discontent has created an opportunity for pro-monarchy supporters to advocate for the revival of the monarchical system.
Monarchy was officially removed from Nepal in May 2008, when the country declared itself a republic. This followed a decade-long political struggle, including the Nepalese Civil War (1996-2006) and the 2006 People’s Movement (Jana Andolan II), which led to the abolition of the monarchy.
Kathmandu witnessed two separate mass rallies on Friday. While the Socialist Front Nepal, a local political party, held a rally at Exhibition Road in support of the republic, another rally was organized by pro-monarchy groups at Tinkune.
The Friday rally by the pro-monarchy group was planned days after the 82 years King Gyanendra Shah had arrived in Kathmandu from Pokhara on 9 March amidst a massive reception by his the pro-king supporters.
Speaking to the Sunday Guardian , Kathmandu based Parshuram Kaphle, who is the bureau Chief of ‘Naya Patrika Daily’ newspaper, said that the anger of the people against the poor performance of successive governments has created a volatile situation in the country.
“The people have been dissatisfied for a long time, as the promises made by the political parties regarding improvements in governance post-2008 have not materialized. The government’s expenditure has increased, but there has been no development for the people. The present government has failed to bring about any change. Amidst this, the former King stated that the republican system has not worked for the country and urged the people to revert to the monarchical system,” Kaphle said.
The king is being supported by multiple groups, including the Rastriya Prajatantra Party, a Hindu nationalist political party in Nepal, which has its own political objectives in mind.
An official tasked with gathering inputs from the ground said that it will be a mistake to , however, see the two issues through one frame.
“There is no doubt that almost 90 percent of the people in Nepal would want the country to become a ‘Hindu Kingdom,’ as it was officially prior to 2008. However, the same level of massive support does not exist for the revival of the monarchical system. These two issues are not linked. According to Nepal’s constitution, a 2/3 majority can bring back both, but right now, the anger and protests are not about reinstating the monarchy; they are a response to the government’s failure in administration,” he said.
According to sources, the poster of UP CM Adityanath that was seen in the 9 March pro- monarchy rally was not as significant a development as it was being made out.
“There was only one poster of Adityanath, not even two. The said poster was hoisted by a local businessman, Pradeep Vikram Rana who, allegedly, wanted to curry some favour from a leader based in UP,”, a source said.
Interestingly, both India and China, according to insiders in Kathmandu, have made it clear that they are not comfortable with the monarchical system for different reasons.
The monarchy, traditionally, has adopted an anti-India posture. China, sources said, is also more happy to deal with the communist parties and leaders who are in influential position in the country.
Baburam Bishwakarma, who is a Kathmandu based independent journalist and author of “Bhurajaniti ko Baar” (burden of geopolitics) told the Sunday Guardian that the violence on Friday had damaged the pro monarchy sentiments in the country.
“The rally was organized by supporters of the king. Public property was vandalized, and tragically, one journalist lost their life. Police have arrested five royalist leaders, including Senior Vice-chairman of the RPP Rabindra Mishra and General Secretary Dhawal Shamsher Rana. When the king arrived from Pokhara, a large number of people came out to welcome him. However, following yesterday’s violence, the situation has drastically changed. Internal divisions have surfaced, with figures like Kamal Thapa and the RPP choosing not to participate. The violence has damaged the pro-monarchy sentiment that was evident on 9 March leading to question marks on this entire ‘movement’, he said.
From 2008 to 2015, Nepal experienced slow economic growth due to political instability, natural disasters such as the 2015 earthquake, and infrastructure bottlenecks. However, between 2016 and 2019, the country entered a period of recovery, with steady GDP growth around 6-7%, largely driven by agriculture, remittances, and infrastructure development.
In 2020, the economy
In 2023, Nepal’s GDP per capita is around $1,400 USD (compared to the world average of around $12,000).As of recent estimates, about 18% of Nepal’s population lives below the national poverty line (which is defined as living on less than $1.90 per day).
Both Parshuram Kaphle and Bishwakarma agreed that the violence that erupted during the protest, along with the loss of life and vandalism, had provided the government with the opportunity it was seeking—similar to how Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu capitalized on the aftermath of the Hamas-led terror attack in October 2023. Netanyahu, who was immensely unpopular at the time, used the tragedy to resurrect his political career.
“The role of the government agencies has come under suspicion, with reports suggesting that the police may have tried to instigate the protesters on Friday. People are now calling for an independent investigation”, Bishwkarma added.
A sentiment that was echoed by former Nepali diplomat Madhuban Prasad Paudel who said that the pro-monarchy rally that happened in early March was peaceful and the possibilities of the same being infiltrated on Friday cannot be ruled out.
The king for now, has decided to step back amidst reports that he is likely to face restrictions from making public appearances. The RPP with 14 members in the 275 members ‘pratinidhi sabha’ (lower house) , sources said, is planning a rally on 20 April.
The pro-monarchy groups were hoping that a Bangladesh like situation could be created in wake of the problems that the people were facing and the anger of the people, however, the immediate hope for any such development has been dashed post the violence
“Revival of monarchy is not easy, not many want it. The government should see the Friday development as a wake up call and work swiftly to improve its performance and show the result on the ground, “ Kaphle said.