Political uncertainty in Punjab

The unfolding political developments in Punjab have become a cause of concern for all the parties and have created an atmosphere of uncertainty, with the Assembly polls barely two months away. The Congress is hoping to retain power in the border state and faces a challenge from the AAP, the Shiromani Akali Dal and the new coalition of Punjab Lok Congress and the BJP.
The biggest threat to the ruling dispensation is from the former Chief Minister, Captain Amarinder Singh, whose sole objective appears to be to destroy his former party in the state. To achieve this target, he has joined hands with the BJP, which till very recently was struggling to keep its relevance intact in the region.
Several top Congress leaders such as Rana Gurmit Singh Sodhi, a four-time MLA have curiously decided to join the saffron brigade and not the Captain’s outfit. He would be probably leaving his Assembly constituency of Guru Har Sahai for his son, Hira Sodhi and shall himself contest from Ferozepur City, which has considerable BJP presence.
There could be multiple reasons for this decision. Sodhi, who was a minister in the Amarinder Singh government and is considered close to him, is eyeing for a long-term association with a national party or has been nudged to go there for strategic reasons by the Captain. It is evident that the new coalition partners are depending on Hindu votes, which if they tilt towards the BJP, could play a decisive role in a number of seats, thus giving the new combination an advantage in the post poll scenario.
The calculation is that with a four-way contest in Punjab, no party may get a majority of its own and the government could be formed by certain factors that may emerge after the results. Both Amarinder and the BJP are seeking to make national security as the main plank and that is the reason why Congress in particular seems to be seeing a conspiracy in the recent incidents of sacrilege, lynchings and bomb blast. However, until there is conclusive evidence to establish some wrongdoing, these would simply be treated as allegations of the election season.
The BJP, as is well known, does not have candidates to contest all the 117 seats and thus would be relying on poaching of nominees from other parties. The Captain can be a facilitator; he shall have to wait for the ticket distribution process in the Congress to be over to bring in candidates into the fold after they are denied nomination.
It is significant that the agreement between the Punjab Lok Congress and the BJP has sent out some clear messages. The arrangement was reached when the BJP state in-charge and Union Minister, Gajendra Shekhawat met the Captain recently. The former CM’s supporters were not too happy with this development and would have preferred Prime Minister Narendra Modi or Home Minister Amit Shah to make this declaration.
In political and optics terms, it amounted to the downsizing of the Captain, who had a number of meetings with the top BJP leadership earlier. The signal was that he should not take the BJP for granted and would have to play second fiddle if the need arose. However, the BJP should not forget that Amarinder is an astute and perceptive politician, who may not mind doing business with the Congress, if the situation so demanded in the post poll scenario. That could be one reason why he has retained the Congress in the nomenclature of his new party.
The Congress is heavily dependent on Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi to take it past the winning post despite hurdles that are thrown in his way by the PCC president and former cricketer, Navjot Singh Sidhu. Channi has emerged as the face of the common man, thus jeopardising the advantage which the AAP had till recently.
The flaw in the AAP campaign is very evident; Arvind Kejriwal is consciously keeping the focus on himself instead of on his party and candidates without realising that his potential voters would not want the MLAs to be remote controlled from Delhi. He must learn that this is one factor that could even affect the Congress’ chances if the Gandhis keep summoning leaders to the national capital, thereby creating an impression of their overall leadership.
Arvind Kejriwal is a shrewd player but must learn from his mistakes of 2017 when he wanted himself to be the CM of Punjab; this after handing over the Delhi baton to Manish Sisodia, who was asked to be prepared to take up the job. The AAP can be very formidable if it projects a good Jat Sikh face and allows greater freedom to its Punjab unit.
The Shiromani Akali Dal is fighting for its survival. Its own workers have not come out for some odd reasons and it is a matter of time that the party would be compelled to persuade former CM Parkash Singh Badal to spearhead the campaign to end factionalism.
The farmers, without a doubt, hold the key to impact the outcome. Amarinder has been desperately trying to woo them through his state and overseas contacts, but the inherent dislike for the BJP may neutralise his efforts. Things may undergo a change when Narendra Modi hits the campaign trail to bring his own party back into the reckoning.
At this point, Channi is the man, whom everyone would strive to beat. Between us.