LONDON
While wars in Ukraine and Israel are grabbing headlines, something of huge importance for the future of the European Union (EU) has occurred in Poland, which has for years been the EU’s problem child. Last Sunday’s vote, with a record turnout of more than 70% with long queues at polling stations across the country, is the most significant since the fall of communism in Poland. It will transform the political and economic scene in a key member of the EU. The EU is India’s third largest trading partner, accounting for 88 billion euros worth of goods in 2021, or 10% of total Indian trade.
In one of the most consequential turnarounds of recent years, the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) Party has lost power. Although receiving the most votes, the PiS was defeated by three Opposition parties, which together obtained sufficient seats to form a coalition government led by Donald Tusk. Tusk was the Polish Prime Minister between 2007 and 2014, before becoming the European Council President for five years. “It’s the end of evil times”, Tusk told his ecstatic supporters after the vote, “it’s the end of PiS. We made it”.
With a population of 38 million, the fifth most populous country in the EU, Poland has the sixth biggest economy and a dynamic pro-NATO, pro-US foreign and defence policy. Citizens enjoy a high standard of living, with free university education and health care. It was not always so. Invaded by both Germany and the Soviet Union at the start of the Second World War, Poland became a member of the Communist Bloc in the post-war global Cold War and a founding signatory of the Warsaw Pact. It was through a combination of the emergence of the Solidarity Movement in the 1980s, supported by the new Polish Pope John-Paul II, and the growing weakness of the Soviet Union, that Poland re-established itself as a democratic state in 1989. This marked the transition to the vibrant country Poland is today.
It was as part of the Solidarity Movement—that won a landmark victory over the Communists in 1989—that both PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski, and Donald Tusk entered politics. “Of course they were my children, they worked with me”, said Solidarity leader Lech Walesa recently when interviewed about the election. “They wanted to be politicians but had a totally different understanding of what being a politician means. I would say that Tusk is convinced that democracy is a good system, but for Kaczynski, democracy is a possible obstacle to fulfilling his will”.
The two launched their respective parties in 2001. Kaczynski, along with his twin brother, Lech, formed PiS, while Tusk formed the Civic Platform. In the years since, the two right-leaning parties have alternated in power, with both men serving as Prime Minister. The ultra-conservative PiS combines Catholic family values with a more left-wing economic agenda of big government, while the more liberal Civic Platform favours less state interventionism. Having won the past two elections, a PiS win this time would have had a dramatic effect on the country’s future in the EU.
Since PiS came to power in 2015, a mismatch developed between what the general public thought about the EU and the path Poland’s political elites have pursued. An ongoing dispute between the EU and the Polish government over its lack of respect for democratic values even raised questions in Brussels over whether Poland might follow the UK (Brexit) in leaving the EU (Polexit). This was never likely to happen, however, as membership of the EU was always popular with the Poles. Some 85% support the EU, while only about 10% are openly opposed. Support has never dropped below 70% since Poland joined the EU in 2004, along with neighbouring Hungary. Both countries have suffered from democratic decline in recent years, with Jaroslaw Kaczynski drawing inspiration from Hungarian leader Victor Orban’s brand of what Orban calls “illiberal democracy”.
Like Orban, PiS used its time in power to take control of public and local media, the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Court, and all state-owned companies. Had it won a third term, the PiS would have moved on to the general courts, universities, cultural institutions, and NGOs, giving Kaczynski scope to complete the job of eliminating liberating counterweights to PiS hegemony. It would have taken Poland closer towards embodying what one commentator has described as “totalitarian democracy”. The stakes were high.
So was the temperature of the election. The feud between Tusk and Kaczynski, which has shaped Polish politics for two decades, was at its worst during the campaign. “Pure evil”; “the enemy of the nation”; “a traitor who must be morally exterminated”, were just a few of the insults Kaczynski threw at Tusk. Tusk likewise branded his opponent as “evil”, threatening to throw Kaczynski and his nationalist PiS party out of power. Although both politicians helped pull Poland out of communism, each used the spectre of Russian president Vladimir Putin to tarnish their rival. Kaczynski claimed that Tusk was a Russian spy, while Tusk warned that Kaczynski would replace Poland’s EU membership with an authoritarian state modelled on Putin’s Russia. “They are like two deers which have locked their antlers so hard that they might die together”, said an eminent Polish commentator.
Neutral observers noted that the PiS deployed a whole host of dirty tricks to regain power. The single election debate on television turned out to be a travesty, with hosts not even trying to hide their pro-PiS sentiments. As in Russia, Polish media is largely state-controlled, so the Opposition had little opportunity to put their policies to the electorate. The elections were also combined with a referendum on the same voting slips, with four questions on subjects designed to sway opinion—according to the Opposition—towards PiS policies. The most glaring trick was a last minute bribe to pensioners, a key section of the electorate, of an extra month’s pension. Even teachers received an unexpected one-time bonus and the state-owned petrol corporation cut fuel prices the week before the election. The canny Poles easily saw through this ruse and said “thanks a lot” before voting for the Opposition.
Several European capitals—with the exception of Budapest—heaved a sigh of relief when the result of the election was announced on Tuesday. Tusk has vowed to turn back towards Poland’s partners in the EU and for the country to keep pace with them on social issues, such as same-sex marriage. Women, who have seen their rights to abortion care ultimately vanish under PiS, can be hopeful of a shift back towards liberalisation under a Tusk administration. A near total ban on abortion, enabled by a judgement of Poland’s constitutional tribunal in 2000 brought hundreds of thousands of people to the streets. But that didn’t stop women’s abortion rights being curtailed. It is claimed that many women were even forced to carry a dead foetus to term, with at least six dying of sepsis in public hospitals.
So now Poland prepares for a new Tusk administration. But this won’t be easy and the road ahead will be bumpy. After eight years of PiS rule, it will be up to the new coalition to try to depolarise the country, which the election results show has a pronounced East-West division. The coalition government will enjoy a steady majority of 18 seats to carry out reforms over the next four years. However, since President Andrzej Duda is a firm PiS supporter and holds the powers of veto until the next presidential election in 2025, it will be some time before the coalition can carry out the democratic reforms necessary for Poland’s future. The PiS also promises to be a hawkish opponent, with the largest share by party and control of the central bank and television. A major hurdle for Tusk will also be the politicised constitutional court which could delay the process of reform.
Nevertheless, the Polish elections should immediately affect the balance of power in the EU. Had PiS won, Kaczynski and Orban would have formed the “awkward squad” in Brussels, even though both Poland and Hungary are net recipients from EU funds, with Poland receiving 12.9 billion euros in 2021 and Hungary 4.3 billion. The war in Ukraine has already given Poland a new strategic role in the bloc and a new government that enjoys better relations with the EU can be expected to build on this position to play a much more constructive role in EU affairs. This is of huge significance for the future of Europe.
John Dobson is a former British diplomat, who also worked in UK Prime Minister John Major’s office between 1995 and 1998. He is currently Visiting Fellow at the University of Plymouth.