Congress underestimates voters’ intelligence and integrity if it believes it can win general elections, that too against Narendra Modi, with promises of unrealistic freebies that could bankrupt the nation.
As Indian elections have passed the halfway mark, there is much speculation about the results. Rahul Gandhi has been asserting that the Opposition alliance will cause an upset, predicting that the BJP will not even cross 150 seats—half of its current tally in the Lok Sabha. RaGa expressed similar confidence in May 2019, claiming that the Congress-led alliance would come to power and that the Narendra Modi-led BJP would be decimated. However, 2019 was a BJP sweep.
First, the only common agenda of the Opposition is “Narendra Modi hatao”. This might succeed if they were targeting an unpopular leader or government. It worked in 2014 when people were angry at the mega corruption of the Congress-led UPA and were fed up with the nation being run by a super Prime Minister. However, Modi is extremely popular, has a solid governance track record and an incorruptible image built over two decades. The Opposition, instead of devising a multi-pronged strategy, focused on a single-point “Modi hatao” agenda, which has not yielded any success since the 2002 Gujarat Assembly elections. In fact, making the elections solely about Narendra Modi, resorting to personal attacks against him, or making it NaMo versus all, none of these tactics work well for the Opposition. Especially not in elections where NaMo seeks votes based on his scam-free governance, development initiatives, and effectively implemented welfare schemes.
Second, the dotted alliance has been plagued with problems. Nitish Kumar, who played a pivotal role in its formation, realigned with the BJP. In some states, I.N.D.I allies are contesting against each other bitterly. Also, individual parties are grappling with their own challenges: the Delhi excise policy chargesheet and the alleged assault troubles for AAP, Sandeshkhali sexual exploitation horrors for TMC, splitting within Shiv Sena and NCP, and the financial crisis in Kerala for CPM. Congress is facing an existential crisis, but remains stubbornly attached to its old playbook. Despite Rahul Gandhi’s two walkathons, which may or may not have bolstered his popularity, the exodus of party leaders and members continues. While Rahul attributes this to the looming spectre of investigative agencies, if their departure is indeed motivated by fear, it suggests a tacit acknowledgment that the BJP is poised to regain power.
Third, the issue of leadership looms large, with Congress and its proxies implicitly projecting Rahul Gandhi as the alliance leader, by framing the contest as Modi vs Rahul. This works for Modi, who enjoys targeting dynastic politics in general, and the Gandhi dynasty in particular. However, Rahul is arguably the least accomplished politician among the allies, many of whom are current or former Chief Ministers, with some having prime ministerial ambitions of their own.
Fourth, Congress underestimates voters’ intelligence and integrity if it believes it can win general elections, that too against Narendra Modi, with promises of unrealistic freebies that could bankrupt the nation. The fiscal burden of such ill-conceived promises was highlighted by the economic advisor of the Congress Chief Minister of Karnataka in January, stating, “The five guarantees have become a huge financial burden for (the Congress) government.” This sentiment was echoed a few months earlier, in July 2023, when the state’s deputy CM D.K. Shivakumar ruled out allocation of funds for development work in Assembly constituencies due to the need to mobilise huge resources to implement the guarantees. In contrast, the Modi government has achieved remarkable milestones, lifting 25 crore people out of multidimensional poverty, providing over 3.5 crore houses under the PM Awas Yojana, constructing 12 crore household toilets, and delivering 14.7 crore tap water connections to rural homes. Additionally, 6.8 crore people received free treatment under the PM Jan Arogya Yojana, 10.3 crore LPG connections were distributed, over 50 crore Jan Dhan accounts were opened, nearly 45 crore Mudra loans were disbursed, and free ration is being provided to 81.35 crore people since the pandemic. This was achieved while maintaining fiscal discipline and without compromising the development process or the goal of becoming the third-largest economy in Modi 3.0.
Fifth, Narendra Modi has a clear vision for 2047 and has committed to creating a robust foundation for the civilisation-state Bharat for the next thousand years. The Opposition lacks a compelling alternative vision and moves from election to election abusing Modi and the BJP. While Modi is positioning India as a global leader, Congress is preoccupied with promoting a fourth-generation dynast, who has failed to achieve major success despite multiple launches and a powerful ecosystem at his service.
Lastly, Congress carries a problematic public perception of betting against India—be it questioning the surgical strikes, skipping the Independence Day celebration at the Red Fort last year, boycotting the historic New Parliament Building inauguration, justifying the December’s Parliament security breach allegedly due to unemployment and price rise, or supporting break-India sloganeering. This perception is reinforced when Rahul Gandhi calls India a union of states, seeks foreign intervention in domestic affairs, portrays India unfavourably on the international stage, and maligns democratic institutions. His overall politics and campaigning have been extremely divisive, exploiting class and caste fault lines and aiming to undermine social cohesion. He has engaged in brazen lies and fear-mongering, and anyone in the media daring to question him is labelled as a BJP agent. The Opposition often plays with regional and religious divides for political gain. In February, Congress MP D.K. Suresh, brother of D.K. Shivakumar, claimed that taxes collected from southern India were being distributed to north India, and if the “injustice” persists, the southern states will have to demand for a separate nation. Mamata Banerjee openly opposes the implementation of CAA in West Bengal. The DMK has threatened to eradicate Sanatan Dharma. Congress not only boycotted the Ram temple pran pratishtha, following in Jawaharlal Nehru’s footsteps of boycotting the Somnath temple ceremony, but also tried to spread lies about the ceremony.
Rahul Gandhi has been attempting to delegitimise the elections by constantly claiming that if the BJP gets anything more than 150-180, it is a “fixed match”. This is amplified by those who have lost access to power corridors in the last decade and are desperate to regain influence. Rahul has also warned that the nation will burn if the BJP brings amendments to the Constitution. Of course, nobody asks him why would the nation burn if a democratically elected government brought about amendments in a democratic fashion. It is common sense that Congress cannot expand its vote base by appearing anti-India. It is a different story if Congress has accepted Modi’s third term as inevitable and is inclined to employ a scorched-earth strategy—no Indira Congress, no India.
Narendra Modi is expected to introduce significant reforms in his third term, but these efforts could be hindered if Congress resorts to street protests, either directly or indirectly. We have seen this pattern emerge during Modi 1.0 and 2.0, with major decisions often met with street agitation. In Modi 3.0, this could escalate into violence, especially as existing fault lines are already inflamed, making it easier to stoke tensions. Once that happens, the “democracy in danger” narrative will take over, inviting heightened scrutiny and potential repercussions. The stage has been set for civil unrest and to project India as a failed democracy under the Modi government. As India navigates this critical juncture, effective communication, and ensuring internal peace and social cohesion will be paramount for the Modi government.
Semu Bhatt is a strategic adviser and author specialising in governance, geopolitics, and conflict. She has a comprehensive understanding of Narendra Modi’s politics and policies and a consistent track record of accurately predicting his political decisions.