There have been multiple media reports that suggest that the decision of West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee to contest all the 42 seats in her state, demonstrated the acute divisions within the I.N.D.I.A bloc. This could be true if one views the development in isolation, without taking cognizance of its consequences. It is being argued that the cracks in the Opposition were going to help the BJP, which has been seeking to dislodge Mamata from her top position for a long time now. This could have been so, had the BJP been locked in a straight fight against the Trinamool Congress. However, the move to go it alone may have been strategic, and notwithstanding the noise that is accompanying the decision, which has evidently pitted Mamata against her I.N.D.I.A bloc allies, the Congress and the CPM, the development is something which should worry the BJP.
The BJP has covered considerable ground in the state, but the question remains whether it was sufficient to humble the Trinamool Congress. Had it been the BJP versus the I.N.D.I.A partners, the anti-Mamata vote, given the anti-incumbency factor, would have gone solely towards the saffron brigade. But with the Congress and the CPM also in fray, this vote would be split three ways, between the three parties.
In other words, it would benefit the West Bengal CM. It also implies that in the event, the votes get divided, the Congress and the CPM would also end up with some seats, which would have otherwise gone to the BJP. The issue that emerges is that the Congress and the Left gains would be in seats which the BJP would have won, in a straight contest. Trinamool was in any case going to win in its strongholds. with or without the alliance.
Thus, the media depiction of the I.N.D.I.A bloc collapsing because of this factor, could be inaccurate. Whenever, a common front against the ruling dispensation is crafted, strategic importance is equally necessary. There is a war of words going on between Mamata on one hand and the Congress and the Left on the other. The Left and Mamata could never have been on the same page, taking into account the past. But if they are contesting against each other and the outcome is not going to assist the BJP, the objective of the I.N.D.I.A bloc gets fulfilled all the same.
This is a perspective which cannot be ignored. The Opposition has not been able to come to terms with some contradictions between the allies, but it can certainly go in for tactical moves which in the end achieve their overall objective of reducing the BJP’s overall strength in the Lok Sabha.
The argument that can be put forward is that the saffron brigade, particularly after the inauguration of the Ram Temple was marching ahead and was virtually unbeatable, given the growing popularity of the Prime Minister. However, there are states, where the BJP would have to do much more than what it is doing, to win impressively.
Mamata Banerjee has in one of her recent statements, lashed out at the Congress, while predicting that the grand old party may find it difficult to cross the overall 40-seat mark in the Lok Sabha. She is certainly unhappy with the Congress and the Left, but she is aware that if the BJP wins in Bengal and elsewhere, she would be targeted so as to diminish her influence.
In her own state, the general belief is that in the event of the BJP not forming the government at the Centre, Mamata could emerge as the rallying point of Opposition parties, even though she has publicly stated that she would want the Congress Chief Mallikarjun Kharge to be the head of the Front. This is all political posturing and should be viewed in the context of the developments that are taking place.
It is also important to understand that there is a section of the RSS which silently supports her. Their latent endorsement to her leadership is not because her methods are consistent with their ideology, but because of certain other factors. In the Northeast, there are fears that the Muslims, particularly from Bangladesh had been slowly infiltrating and despite tall claims of the Centre, their entry has not been halted fully as yet.
This influx of the Muslims and the members of this community who already reside in Bengal and are Indian citizens, is not something that can be wished away. They do not have any leader as such from amongst themselves, and the only person they follow, to some extent is Mamata Banerjee. Thus, in their estimation, Mamata Banerjee to some degree, even if it is less, could assist in keeping this population in check.
This may sound to be a nebulous argument but in politics, certain long-term measures have to be taken by observing restraint. This according to some experts is not the time to pull the rug from under the feet of the Chief Minister, who in any case, has a sway over a large number of residents of the state.
The Americans who are allies at the international level, have also been Mamata’s admirers, especially after she ended the 34-year-old communist rule in the state. They have no interference in the affairs of West Bengal, but they have always sent signals which are supportive of the Chief Minister.
Electoral contests are often about tactics and strategy. Bengal is no different. Between us.