Even as India tries to move away from Russian dependence and move towards the more advanced platforms of the West, over 60% of its defence equipment is of Russian origin and it will take decades to wean away from it completely.
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Moscow—his first overseas visit, since taking over as PM for his third term—the bonhomie was visible. He was received by the Deputy Prime Minister, presented the highest honour of “The Order of St Andrews,” hosted and dined by Vladimir Putin, who also drove him around his own dasha, and called him his “Param Dost.” In the two-day visit, a host of issues were discussed, ranging from the return of Indians fighting for Russia, defence deals, trade, energy, development of land and maritime connectivity projects, and others. Even more delicate issues would have been discussed behind closed doors, like the Ukraine war, Russia-China ties, the India-US relationship and its impact on this traditional friendship. But the warmth and genuine bonding was not just a photo-op. The visit helped cement the “special and privileged partnership,” that could carry forward this 70-year-old relationship in an increasingly fragmented world.
Ironically, around the same time, 32 leaders of NATO met at Washington to commemorate 75 years of the alliance. As this primarily anti-USSR alliance closes ranks, the Indian embrace would have been watched with a mixture of interest and apprehension. Volodymyr Zelenskyy bemoaned the fact that “the leader of the world’s largest democracy hugged a mass murderer”—more so, since an alleged Russian strike had hit a Ukrainian school days before. The Western media was abuzz with news of the visit, and more than that, India’s refusal to toe the western line to isolate Russia.
India has played a delicate balancing act in preserving its friendship with Russia and still develop stronger ties with the US and the West. Russia’s time-tested friendship has provided India with defence equipment, political support, energy supplies, trade, infrastructure, technology (albeit, not the latest) and even nuclear reactors. And even as India tries to move away from Russian dependence and move towards the more advanced platforms of the West, over 60% of its defence equipment is of Russian origin and it will take decades to wean away from it completely.
India’s refusal to take sides in the Ukraine war was a test of its diplomacy. It maintained a fine balance, not explicitly condemning Russia, but still calling for an end to the war, and condemning the loss of lives. Modi’s message to Putin on the side-lines of the SCO summit last year that, “this is not the era of war” has found resonance. The same message was delivered again, when he conveyed to Putin that “a solution cannot be found on the battlefield.”
That in itself is an indicator of the role that India can play to stop this war. Prime Minister Modi did not attend the peace meeting at Switzerland, nor did India sign the joint statement there, but India is one of the few players that can broker a peace. Modi has personal equations with both Zelenskyy and Putin, which could at least get them on the negotiating table. Perhaps the results of the US elections in November could create an environment to end this pointless war, and India may be called upon to play a major role then.
Another sore point has been India’s defiance of US sanctions in continuing to buy Russian oil—often at heavily discounted rates and in rupee-rouble trade. This has proved win-win for both. It provided energy-dependent India with massive amounts of cheap oil, and gave Russia a market for it. Russia has now supplanted Saudi Arabia as the largest supplier of crude oil to India, and the volumes are likely to grow. India-Russia trade too has been boosted from just $30 billion at the start of the war, to a whopping $65.7 billion last year, and is poised to reach $100 billion by 2025. Yet, the balance of trade is heavily skewed in Russia’s favour (which provides $61 billion of exports to India) and needs to be seriously addressed.
Yet, the time-tested India-Russia ties remain under the shadow of the Russia-China “partnership without limits.” China is definitely the more important partner to Russia, and their $240 billion trade is four times that of India. China also provides dual-use equipment, and the political and moral support to Russia that enables it to continue its war. Russia has been pushed squarely into China’s embrace after the Ukraine war, and is now dependent on China and is the junior partner in the relationship. That itself raises fears of how strongly Russia will stand up for Indian interests against China. Indian and Chinese troops have been in a face-off along the LAC for four years now, and if push comes to shove, Russia could be coerced by China to halt the provisioning of spares and supplies, toe its line in the UN, and deny India much-needed support.
Yet, there is a caveat to this. Russia too has realised the dangers of the Chinese embrace and seeks to shake off the dependence by launching a vigorous diplomatic campaign to rejuvenate ties with allies like North Korea, Iran, Africa and especially India. They would want to nurture an independent relationship with India that actually balances the Russia-China one and is equally vital. In fact, Russian security doctrines speak of a Russia-China-India relationship as the essential partnership in the coming world order, which surprisingly, is also echoed in Chinese writings.
While India has been maintaining and nurturing its relationship with Russia, we have also maintained a fine balance in the growing partnership with the USA and the West. There is no doubt that the world is fast being divided into two camp—one of a US-led western order (along with Japan, South Korea, Australia and others) and a China-Russia-North Korea-Iran axis. India actually forms the fulcrum and the balance of power will shift to the side India tilts towards. India shares the fears of Chinese expansionism and is being wooed by the West to provide a much-needed counter in the region. India has gradually tilted towards the US and the West, and is ideologically aligned with their values. Yet, we have not entered into any formal alliance and have staunchly maintained our strategic autonomy. In maintaining the balance with its equation with Russia, we have walked the tightrope admirably. Yes, as relations deteriorate between the US-led western order and Russia and China, we will be increasingly pushed to take sides. In fact, it is telling that immediately after Modi’s visit, the US Ambassador to India gave a darkly veiled warning that India-US ties could not be taken for granted and there was “no place for strategic autonomy in these times of global conflict.”
Fortunately, besides holding our own with USA and Russia, we have also developed relations with a slew of disparate powers—Japan, Australia, South Korea, UK, Germany, France, Israel even Saudi Arabia and Iran. In a way, India has moved on from non-alignment to multi-alignment, which would be best to protect our interests in a multi-polar world.
Prime Minister Modi’s visit thus not only solidified a long-standing relationship, but it also sent out a significant message. India will maintain its “strategic autonomy” and would not be coerced into taking sides. Both the US and the Russian relationship are important to us. Both must be nurtured and cultivated and neither can be at the expense of the other. So far, India has held that delicate balance, but maintaining it in the years ahead, will be the true test of our foreign policy.
Ajay Singh is the international award winning author of 7 books and over 200 articles. He is a regular contributor to The Sunday Guardian.