NEW DELHI: The Northern and Marathwada regions of Maharashtra are gearing up for a fierce political battle in Assembly elections scheduled for Wednesday, 20 November. These two regions have 35 and 46 seats, respectively. A keen contest is expected between the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), especially focusing on the two key players, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress. The voting outcome in these two regions will have a significant impact on Maharashtra’s political landscape for the next five years.
The Northern region, with its 35 Assembly seats, poses a particularly tough challenge for the BJP compared to other parts of the state. Although it has long been a BJP stronghold, the party now faces dual hurdles as it approaches the election—caste tensions and farmer unrest. Comprising five districts—Dhule, Nandurbar, Jalgaon, Nashik, and Ahilyanagar (formerly Malegaon)—this region will play a vital role in determining the BJP’s prospects of retaining power.
Earlier this year, the Lok Sabha elections served as a wake-up call for the BJP, as it lost four of the six parliamentary seats in North Maharashtra to the MVA. The opposition captured Dhule, Dindori, Nandurbar and Ahilyanagar, leaving the BJP with only Jalgaon and Raver. In the 2019 Assembly elections, the BJP had secured 13 seats in North Maharashtra—more than any other party. The NCP followed with seven seats, Shiv Sena with six, and Congress with five. Additionally, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and independent candidates won two seats each in this region.
In North Maharashtra, the consolidation of OBC votes has traditionally been a strong factor for the BJP’s success. However, this election cycle presents new challenges, with farmers’ issues and the growing polarization between Marathas and OBCs over reservation rights. Additionally, there is significant public unrest directed at the government. Despite these obstacles, the BJP’s organizational strength could still provide an advantage.
This onion-growing belt in the north spanning 35 constituencies across Nashik, Dhule, and Jalgaon, is crucial to Maharashtra’s economy and political dynamics, as the state produces 40% of India’s total onion yield. Recent policies on onion exports are likely to influence voter sentiment. The ban on onion exports last December, which was lifted only in May, along with the Central government’s recent decision to reduce the export duty on onions from 40% to 20% in September, are expected to be prominent issues during the elections.
The region also includes 11 Assembly seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes (ST) and four for Scheduled Castes (SC). Tribal votes, particularly in Nashik, are likely to be influential, as they were in the recent Lok Sabha elections when a significant shift of the tribal communities to the MVA cost the BJP four parliamentary seats.
The Congress, once a dominant force in the region, continues to struggle in areas like Nashik, where it has failed to regain its strength since Sharad Pawar’s departure from the party in 1999. This time, the main contest in Nashik is expected to be between Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar’s NCP against the BJP. Congress is concentrating its efforts on Nandurbar and Dhule. The party has also been weakened by defections, with prominent leaders like Kashiram Pawara, a sitting MLA from Shirpur, switching to the BJP last year and retaining his seat. Another Congress veteran, Amrish Patel, also joined the BJP, while Manikrao Gavit’s son, Bharat Gavit, left the Congress to join the NCP (SP) and is now contesting from Navapur in Nandurbar.
VOTING IN MARATHWADA
Similar to North Maharashtra, the BJP is aiming to strengthen its position in the Marathwada region, where it is contesting the highest number of seats among its allies. The party is fielding candidates on 20 out of the 46 Assembly seats here. This focus follows the setback the BJP experienced in the recent Lok Sabha elections, where it managed to secure only one out of eight seats in Marathwada. The 46 Assembly constituencies are spread across the districts of Beed, Latur, Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, Nanded, Jalna, Hingoli, Dharashiv and Parbhani. The outcome in this region is crucial for both alliances, especially for the MVA, which won seven out of the eight Lok Sabha seats here in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and aims to sustain this momentum in the Assembly elections.
Once a Congress stronghold, Marathwada has gradually shifted away from the party. In the 1980s, the undivided Shiv Sena and BJP began expanding their influence, especially around Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar (formerly Aurangabad), where communal polarization became a central issue. Since then, the BJP and the united Shiv Sena had maintained a strong presence in the region. However, with the Shiv Sena now divided, the MVA may have an advantage, making it challenging for the ruling Mahayuti alliance to regain its previous momentum. In the 2019 Assembly elections, the BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena won a combined 28 seats, while the Congress and NCP each secured eight seats. Two seats went to other parties.
The most pressing issue in Marathwada is the demand for Maratha reservation, which has impacted Maharashtra’s political landscape since 2023, when activist Manoj Jarange Patil led a movement advocating for Marathas to be included in the OBC category. This move was seen as an effort to consolidate the Maratha vote, but also sparked counter-mobilization among OBC groups opposed to a Maratha quota within their category.
Marathas make up about 28% of Maharashtra’s population. Since the Maratha quota agitation began in 2023, Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, a Maratha himself and leader of the Shiv Sena, has approached with caution the demand for Maratha inclusion in the OBC category. In September 2023, Shinde visited the Antarwali-Sarati village in Marathwada’s Jalna district to meet with activist Manoj Jarange Patil, who has been spearheading the movement to secure Maratha reservation under the Kunbi (OBC) classification.
The influence of Maratha voters in Marathwada is underscored by the fact that seven out of the eight MPs from the region are Marathas, with the remaining seat, Latur, being reserved for the Scheduled Castes. In Beed and Parbhani, the split among Maratha, Muslim, and Dalit votes led to the Mahayuti’s OBC candidates, Pankaja Munde and Mahadev Jankar, losing their seats. Similarly, Sandipan Bhumare, a Maratha candidate from the Shinde-led Shiv Sena, defeated an Uddhav-backed candidate in Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar. These outcomes highlight the significance of caste dynamics in Marathwada and suggest that caste politics will be pivotal in the Assembly elections, especially amid the ongoing Maratha agitation.
Given the significant presence of Marathas, OBCs, and Muslims in Marathwada, the rivalry between Maratha and OBC consolidation will be crucial in the election. Both alliances have put considerable effort into appealing to these voter groups to gain an advantage in the region.
Beyond the Maratha reservation issue, Marathwada faces significant developmental challenges. This drought-prone region struggles with limited irrigation and infrastructure, with about 65% of its population dependent on agriculture. In 2023, over 2,851 farmers across Maharashtra tragically committed suicide, of which 1,088 were from Marathwada. The opposition MVA is using these figures to portray the ruling Mahayuti alliance as anti-farmer.
Shaina NC, speaking on behalf of the Mahayuti alliance, stated that the alliance was running on its achievements and developmental work over recent years. She emphasised that the Mahayuti has several influential leaders with strong grassroots support, who are ready to demonstrate their strength against the MVA. She highlighted the government’s efforts in these two regions, particularly for women and farmers, and expressed confidence that this work would translate into votes. She projected that Mahayuti would secure around 55 of the 71 seats across North Maharashtra and Marathwada.
Meanwhile, Alok Sharma, Congress’ national spokesperson, told this newspaper that the BJP’s ambitions in these regions will be met with disappointment. He argued that the BJP-led government has failed in Maharashtra, leaving people disillusioned with unfulfilled promises. He noted that caste-based politics is losing its impact, as evidenced by recent Lok Sabha results, and that the results on 23 November would deliver a decisive outcome in favour of the Congress-led MVA. Sharma predicted that the Congress-led alliance would win 50 seats across the two regions.
A political analyst told The Sunday Guardian that, as of now, the contest appears to be 60-40 in favour of the ruling Mahayuti alliance. While the MVA secured more seats in the Lok Sabha elections, the vote-share difference was narrow, making it unwise to base state election predictions solely on those results. The Mahayuti alliance appears to have bounced back from the Lok Sabha setback, while MVA is showing signs of disunity. The analyst noted that whichever alliance performs well in North Maharashtra and Marathwada will likely dominate the state for the next five years. The analyst also pointed out that Marathwada has produced four former Chief Ministers: Shivajirao Patil Nilangekar, Shankarrao Chavan, Vilasrao Deshmukh, and Ashok Chavan—all initially from the Congress, although Chavan has since joined the BJP.