North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is currently courting two suitors, Russia and China, in a triangular relationship which is becoming problematic.
LONDON: Among the many fables of Aesop, the famous storyteller who lived in Greece between 620 and 564 BC, is one of a man with two mistresses. One mistress was older than him, the other considerably younger. Under the pretence of dressing the man’s hair, the younger plucked out his grey hairs so that he would look closer in age to her, while the older plucked out the dark hairs with the same motive. Between the two he was left completely bald. The moral of the fable is perfectly clear: if you have two lovers, be careful!
North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is currently courting two suitors, Russia and China, in a triangular relationship which is becoming problematic. Beijing, the senior partner in the triad, is seeking to be the stable leader of a new world order, one that is not led by the United States. But that’s becoming difficult to do when one ally, Russia, has started a war in Europe and the other, North Korea, is accused of aiding and abetting the invasion. China’s Xi Jinping is reported to be very unhappy with the situation.
This is not the first time that Russia and China have been in a relationship with their close neighbour. The Soviet Union, the predecessor state to the modern Russian Federation, was the first country to recognise North Korea back in 1948, supporting it both politically and militarily during the three-year Korean War which ended with an armistice in 1953. Mao Zedong also sent Chinese soldiers to fight on behalf of North Korea in the war, where some 400,000 troops died including his own son. When the two communist juggernauts fell out and China actively prepared for an invasion by the Soviets, North Korea’s leader, Kim Il Sung, took advantage of the situation by playing his two neighbours against each other in order to maximise his position. He sought aid from one and then used it to extract more from the other. His grandson Kim Jong Un is doing the same. History is repeating itself.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the North Korean economy crashed and as Moscow had been Pyongyang’s source of aid and cheap oil, North Korea’s economy went into free-fall, sparking severe food shortages and famine across the country. From that moment, Pyongyang had little choice but to develop and maintain good relations with Beijing, as the country would have struggled to survive without assistance and favourable trade. In return, North Korea provided China with a strategic security buffer in the region. Today, however, trade between the countries remains at pre-pandemic levels, unlike the North Korea-Russia trade which is booming. Suddenly, Russia is offering an opportunity which the North Koreans are seeking to exploit.
Five months ago, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin made a rare visit to North Korea, his first in 24 years, seeking support from Pyongyang for his war in Ukraine. The two leaders rattled global geopolitics during the visit by signing a “comprehensive strategic partnership agreement” that included a “mutual defence pact”, bringing the two nuclear-armed states closer than they have been since the Cold War. This improvement in relations, which the Supreme Leader described as an “alliance,” also sent a message to China that once again Pyongyang had a close friend in Moscow and was prepared to help in whatever way it could, particularly in the war in Ukraine.
Over the years, President Xi Jinping has worked meticulously to position China as a global player, walking a tightrope on the war in Ukraine by not condemning Russia’s full-scale invasion. This has placed him at odds with the West. While there is no evidence that Xi Jinping has directly offered Vladimir Putin any weapons, several Chinese companies have been sanctioned over trade in dual-use components that could have military implications. Contrast that with Pyongyang, which has openly sent Moscow more than 7000 containers carrying millions of munitions in exchange for food and raw materials that the North Koreans can use in the manufacture of its weapons.
In the past few weeks, North Korea has gone one step further by gifting Russia about 10,000 much-needed soldiers to help solve Putin’s manpower problem, a move which has sparked considerable concern in the region. North Korea’s entry to the theatre draws Asia closer into the European conflict, risking a dangerous expansion and escalation of the war that has global implications. It also creates a significant headache for Xi Jinping, who wants to maintain stability in the region and keep the United States and allies at bay, all the while grappling with a spluttering economy. The Chinese economy remains too dependent on the United States and its partners to risk being heavily sanctioned for shipping arms to Putin. Claiming not to be involved, Beijing is keeping a low profile and the state media has largely been silent, other than a terse comment from a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, who said this was “a matter between the two countries.”
The development is also likely to worry Beijing about its ability to control Pyongyang in more consequential issues in East Asia. China is already nervous about the closer US-Japanese-South Korean cooperation caused by North Korea’s provocative actions in the region. Xi Jinping’s warning in last month’s BRICS meeting about “adding fuel to the fire” by third-party involvement in Ukraine, indicates his frustration and concern that Russia is also using North Korea as a means of unshackling itself from the image of being China’s junior partner.
The timing of Kim’s move is particularly inconvenient for Beijing as it finally acknowledges what the Chinese people and the world have known for some time: China’s economy is in deep trouble. While decades of strong growth have resulted in disposable incomes for urban households doubling every eight years, the “China Dream”, Xi Jinping’s vision of increasing the size of the economy by a factor of two by 2035 and achieving broad-based prosperity, is slipping away. The recent crash of the housing market has led to weak domestic demand driven by a lack of consumer confidence. Add to this the arrival of Donald Trump back in the White House from next January, promising to charge tariffs of 60 percent or more on Chinese imports, and you have a developing perfect economic storm for Beijing.
Facing such a difficult economic situation, the last thing Beijing wants to see is North Korea’s developing love affair with Russia. Beijing can’t afford to sever ties with Pyongyang because of its own security interests, so it has to endure North Korea siding with Russia and being labelled as part of the axis of authoritarian revisionist states, even if it doesn’t like this label. China’s response appears to combine exasperation and panic as it finds itself losing control over its client state. This is far from that envisioned by Xi Jinping – a strategic coalition between the three countries, with Beijing in the driver’s seat.
Kim Jong Un, therefore, needs to tread carefully in his relationship with Russia, likened to a marriage of convenience or even of desperation. Putin’s deal with Kim is highly transactional, and once North Korea’s artillery and missile stocks are depleted, and its military is shown to be ineffective in Ukraine, Pyongyang will have little to offer Moscow. The same will be true if President-elect Trump carries out his promise to solve the Ukraine war “in a single day”. President Putin will then have no need for North Korean troops and he will probably decide that it is better to emphasize his relationship with Xi Jinping rather than with Kim Jong Un. As China views the Russia-North Korea relationship as an affront to Beijing’s goal of regional if not global dominance, and having given Xi a headache by his actions, Kim could well have burned his boats.
Like Aesop’s man, he needs to be careful!
* John Dobson is a former British diplomat, who also worked in UK Prime Minister John Major’s office between 1995 and 1998. He is currently a visiting fellow at the University of Plymouth.