It was a victory of the kind the state has never seen.
New Delhi: The Congress-led I.N.D.I.A bloc suffered a devastating blow in the Maharashtra Assembly elections as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) secured a victory in 85% of the contested seats, leaving none of the three Opposition parties with enough seats to be accorded even the status of Leader of Opposition.
In the 288-seat Maharashtra Legislative Assembly, a party needs at least 28 seats to be recognised as the Leader of Opposition. However, the Congress won only 16 seats, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) secured 20, and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) led by Sharad Pawar won 10 seats.
In what ultimately turned out to be a one-sided result, voters ensured that the BJP triumphed in 132 of the 148 seats it contested—achieving a strike rate of more than 88%—just 13 seats shy of the majority mark. Its two allies, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) won 57 of the 81 seats it contested while NCP won 41 of the 59 seats it contested.
This is the best ever performance of the BJP in the state where for decades it was playing the role of a younger brother to what was an undivided Shiv Sena.
Political analysts suggest that the pendulum-like political shifts witnessed in Maharashtra over the past five years played a key role in this outcome. Major regional parties like Shiv Sena and the NCP fractured during this period, disrupting governance, causing confusion and disenchantment among the voters and paving the way for BJP dominance in this election.
Ground-level observers argue that the voters, prioritizing stability and credibility, turned to the BJP, associating the party with the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The consequences of this electoral outcome for the I.N.D.I.A bloc in India’s wealthiest state are likely to be significant. The poor performance of both the NCP (Sharad Pawar) and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) signals the end of their political careers, unless unforeseen circumstances allow them to regain relevance. Non-family leaders from these factions may soon return to their original parties, as they face pressure to remain politically viable ahead of future elections.
For the Congress, this marks a double blow, compounded by their poor showing in the recently held Haryana elections. The party will now face increased pressure to maintain unity within the I.N.D.I.A bloc, especially given the lack of significant elections in the coming year—except in Delhi, where AAP and Congress will contest against each other. Without an electoral focus, the I.N.D.I.A bloc faces a long period of introspection before the next major contest in Bihar.
The Congress’ worst performance in Maharashtra came despite reports submitted to the party high command predicting a tough fight but a potential edge for the I.N.D.I Alliance. However, the ground reality was different.
Voters, especially in the financial capital, appeared to rally behind the BJP, which benefited from strong organizational support from its ideological parent, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), which worked tirelessly to persuade voters on the ground to support the BJP.
While the NDA’s performance had been disappointing in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where it lost 31 of the 48 seats in the state, Saturday’s results suggest that the I.N.D.I Alliance’s Lok Sabha performance in the state was an aberration, not an indication of a widespread disenchantment with Brand Modi, as some Opposition leaders had claimed.
In the financial capital, Maharashtra, voters did not align with the political rhetoric of Opposition leaders, including Rahul Gandhi, the most prominent face of the I.N.D.I.A bloc who largely kept himself away from Maharashtra.
His excessive focus on caste-based politics and caste census and his critique of “crony capitalism” were viewed by many as anti-industry and anti-business, which ultimately failed to resonate with the state’s electorate.
The fact that the Congress won only on 20 of the 102 seats it contested suggests that the party has been pushed to the periphery and excessive pandering to the backward community did not bring their votes to the party’s kitty, while alienating the voters from the non-backward community.
The result of Congress’ poor performance in Maharashtra is likely to deliver a significant blow to the party, which is now in power only in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka. However, it is unlikely to compel Rahul Gandhi to reconsider his perceived “anti-industry stance” or his focus on caste-based politics, as these issues appear to be central to his political ideology—beliefs that go beyond what many of his party colleagues share. The Congress, which has been struggling with resource shortages in recent years, had hoped to regain some financial stability by coming back to power in Maharashtra, but the latest outcome has dashed those expectations.
This was one of the most complex Assembly elections the country has seen in recent times, both for the voters and the observers, as six prominent parties were in the fray, including two factions of Shiv Sena and two factions of the Nationalist Congress Party. What added to the complexity was the fact that just months earlier, the NDA had performed poorly in the state during the Lok Sabha elections, introducing another element of uncertainty regarding how the voters would ultimately cast their ballots.