The US claim, Trump’s assassination attempt by Iran, was dismissed by Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, who termed the allegation as a ‘repulsive’ scheme by Israel and Iran’s opposition abroad to ‘complicate relations between America and Iran’.
NEW DELHI: Donald Trump’s re-election as the 47th President of the United States has created a new wave of apprehension and potential shifts in global power dynamics, increasing uncertainties worldwide. As countries around the globe prepare for this transition of power in the United States, Iran braces for the impact, especially given its history of confrontations with the U.S. and Trump’s hardline stance on terrorism, economic issues, and Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which have constantly strained relations between the two nations.
An assassination attempt on Donald Trump just before the elections has not helped matters, as the US authorities have linked the same to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The US claim was dismissed by Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, who termed the allegation as a “repulsive” scheme by Israel and Iran’s opposition abroad to “complicate relations between America and Iran.” Additionally, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, while denying the allegation of any Iranian involvement in the plot to assassinate Mr Trump, called instead for confidence-building measures between the two adversaries. He also reiterated that Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons.
Iran has long been engaged in a proxy conflict with Israel, supporting groups like Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Palestinian group Hamas, both of which have entered into open conflict with Israel, a close ally of the United States. The U.S. formally severed its ties with Iran following the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which led to the exile of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and the rise of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Pahlavi, who had come to power with U.S. backing, had maintained a stable and mutually beneficial relationship with the United States. Pahlavi’s departure marked a dramatic shift in Iran’s trajectory—from a modern, pro-Western state to an authoritarian, anti-Western one. This transformation into a deeply religious state under Khomeini’s rule has frequently troubled Iran’s regional neighbours and fueled tensions in the Middle East. Consequently, Iran has found itself increasingly isolated within the broader Muslim world and embroiled in regional conflicts with countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
Under the clerical rule of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Iran’s judiciary, parliament, and executive branches were fundamentally transformed into religious institutions, with the judiciary closely aligned with Sharia law. This trend has persisted under the current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Extreme laws and Iran’s totalitarian regime have led many Iranians, particularly women subjected to the mandatory hijab law and other restrictive measures imposed after the 1979 revolution, to resent the government. The fusion of religion, politics, and law has exacerbated this discontent, driving many Iranians to yearn for democratic leadership and reform.
Recently, Ahoo Daryaei, a young Iranian university student, made a bold and desperate statement against the oppressive regime. Stripping down to her underwear at Tehran’s Islamic Azad University, she defied the nation’s draconian laws, a silent scream against the systemic suppression of individual freedoms. In response, the Iranian government reportedly declared her mentally unfit, labelling her a “troubled individual,” and subsequently admitted her to a psychiatric ward. Given Iran’s history of imposing harsh and extreme punishments on its citizens, who dissent, many now fear that she may face torture or even death.
For decades, the U.S. and the West have faced significant challenges with Iran, primarily due to its pursuit of nuclear capabilities—a development the U.S. strongly opposes—as well as its sponsorship of non-state actors linked to terrorism, which Iran supports through substantial funding and the provision of arms and ammunition. Tehran’s barring of uranium-enrichment experts from International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection teams, along with its prolonged failure to explain uranium traces found at undeclared sites, has further strained U.S.-Iran relations. Historically, Tehran has also allocated around $100 million each year to Palestinian groups, including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Relations between the United States and Iran became especially strained in 2018, when Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—a landmark agreement reached in July 2015 between Iran and major world powers, including the U.S., under President Obama’s administration. Trump viewed the JCPOA as overly favourable to Iran, calling it “a horrible, one-sided deal that should have never, ever have been made.” His stance suggested a goal of negotiating a stricter and more comprehensive agreement, as the JCPOA focused only on Iran’s nuclear program and not on its ballistic missile ambitions, which Iran continued to develop after 2015, even after entering into JCPOA, which has brought its economy some stability.
Later, Trump’s imposition of heavy sanctions on Iran—particularly in the energy, shipping, and financial sectors—caused foreign investment to dry up and significantly impacted Iran’s oil exports, which averaged below 500,000 barrels per day (b/d) throughout the latter half of 2019 and into 2020. Further, In 2020, Trump authorised the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force, a branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which further exacerbated tensions between the two nations. After Trump left office, Iran continued to enrich uranium, support Jihadi militant groups, and significantly increase its oil exports. According to data from analytics firms Kpler and Vortexa, Iran’s oil exports averaged around 1.6 million b/d from January to October this year, only 500,000-600,000 b/d short of what it was exporting in the two years before the reimposition of sanctions. In 2020, the U.S. State Department estimated that Iran had provided Hezbollah with $700 million annually.
Trump’s return to power would present significant challenges for Iran. As in his previous term, Trump might impose even harsher sanctions on Iran, especially in light of the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict, where Iran continues to support its proxies. Many foreign analysts anticipate that Trump will likely intensify his “Maximum Pressure” policy on Iran, aiming to push Iran toward concessions with Israel as part of his campaign promise to establish peace in the Middle East. One approach he may take is imposing strict economic restrictions on Iran and limiting its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
Trump could also bring Iran back to the negotiating table for a more robust agreement. During his September campaign, Trump argued that the U.S. must negotiate a deal with Iran, as the consequences of Iran acquiring nuclear capabilities would be severe.
This could involve engaging Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—who holds the final say on all matters—in discussions to craft a comprehensive nuclear deal that aligns with the interests of the U.S. and its allies. While Khamenei has repeatedly voiced strong opposition to Trump and the West, Iran’s new reformist President, Masoud Pezeshkian, who intends to end Iran’s isolation, has expressed openness to talks with Trump. Additionally, Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), is expected to visit Iran for high-level meetings with the Iranian government regarding its expanding nuclear program.
The U.S. might even contemplate regime change in Iran. However, it would likely shy away from direct confrontation with the Iranian government, recognising that any external interference could be perceived as anti-Iranian. Instead, the U.S. may opt for indirect methods to undermine the regime’s cohesion, as direct intervention could cast it as a meddling foreign power advancing its interests while Iranians suffer under oppressive rule. Given Trump’s unpredictable leadership style, he might shift policies and introduce unexpected approaches to Iran. However, his focus on the Middle East—particularly Iran’s pursuit of nuclear autonomy—will likely remain central to his agenda, potentially leading to renewed confrontations or dialogues between the U.S. and Iran.
Akansha Sinha is a Research Intern at the India Foundation. She is pursuing her final year of graduation from the University of Delhi.