Since Bangladesh’s inception, India has played a critical role in aiding its economic and social development. However, the recent political upheaval in Bangladesh has jeopardized the hard-earned progress in bilateral relations.
Bangladesh has been in the news over the past few months for all the wrong reasons. Initially, its developments primarily had an internal impact, but since Md. Yunus assumed leadership of the country, the situation has deteriorated further, with significant repercussions on India-Bangladesh relations. The Indian Foreign Secretary visited Bangladesh to explore possibilities for mending ties. However, the chances of success post this visit appear slim, given the anti-India stance of the Chief Advisor of Bangladesh’s caretaker government.
India has long strived to foster harmonious relations with its neighbours, despite grappling with significant internal and external challenges. This commitment has been evident throughout history, notably in India’s pivotal role in the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971. The 1971 India-Pak war not only dealt a comprehensive defeat to Pakistan but also ensured the creation of Bangladesh, a move that exemplified India’s dedication to regional stability and justice.
Since Bangladesh’s inception, India has played a critical role in aiding its economic and social development. Whether through supporting trade, providing humanitarian assistance during the pandemic, or resolving contentious issues like boundary demarcation and river water sharing, India has consistently gone beyond the call of duty to assist its neighbours. This cooperative stance underscores India’s vision of mutual growth and prosperity in South Asia.
However, the recent political upheaval in Bangladesh has jeopardized the hard-earned progress in bilateral relations. The ouster of Sheikh Hasina’s government in August 2023 and the subsequent appointment of Nobel Laureate Md Yunus as the head of the caretaker government were initially seen as a potential turning point. It was expected that Yunus would stabilize the internal situation, restore peace, and pave the way for free and fair elections. Instead, his tenure has ushered in political chaos and widespread unrest, threatening the very fabric of Bangladesh’s social and economic stability.
Under Yunus’ leadership, extremist groups such as Jamaat-e-Islami have been allowed to operate freely, leading to alarming atrocities against minorities, particularly Hindus. The Hindu population in Bangladesh, which constituted about 33% at the time of Partition, has now dwindled to a mere 7-8%. This decline is a direct result of decades of targeted killings, discrimination, and forced displacements, which have intensified in recent months. Temples are being desecrated, communities terrorized, and families driven to flee the country, all under the apparent indifference of the current caretaker government. Incidentally, this government’s mandate is to carry out essential electoral reforms and hold elections at the earliest. However, the way Yunus is giving statements in the media this does not seem likely in the near future.
In addition to these human rights violations, the government’s failure to address pressing economic issues has further destabilized the nation. Inflation is spiralling out of control, and foreign exchange reserves have plummeted to $18 billion, barely enough to sustain trade for 14 months. Moreover, efforts to erase the legacy of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the founding father of Bangladesh, by removing his images and monuments, reflect a disturbing attempt to rewrite the country’s history and undermine its foundational values.
The repercussions of this turmoil are being felt far beyond Bangladesh’s borders, particularly in India. The plight of the Hindus in Bangladesh has sparked outrage in India, with demands for immediate intervention. The deteriorating situation also poses a significant security threat, with the potential for a massive influx of refugees, increased infiltration by terror groups backed by Pakistan’s ISI, and heightened Chinese influence exploiting the instability in Myanmar and Bangladesh. These developments could severely impact the north eastern states of India, already a sensitive region.
In light of these challenges, India’s response will be crucial in shaping the future of its relationship with Bangladesh and ensuring regional stability. The visit of India’s Foreign Secretary to Bangladesh offered an opportunity to address these pressing issues diplomatically. However, given Yunus’ apparent disregard for India’s concerns and his failure to take decisive action, the prospects for meaningful progress seem bleak.
Historically, India has refrained from employing hard power in dealing with its neighbours, except in cases involving its northern and western frontiers. This restraint aligns with Chanakya’s principle of prioritizing non-military means to achieve national objectives.
However, Chanakya also emphasized the use of all available tools, including force if necessary, to protect national interests. The current situation in Bangladesh may warrant a shift from India’s traditional approach, invoking Chanakya’s doctrine of sham (diplomacy), daam (economic incentives), bhed (division), and dand (punishment).
To address the crisis, India must adopt a multifaceted strategy leveraging its diplomatic, informational, military, and economic (DIME) tools. Diplomatically, India should engage with international partners to exert collective pressure on the Yunus government to uphold human rights and ensure minority protection. Economic measures, including targeted sanctions and conditional aid, could incentivize policy changes. Simultaneously, India must strengthen border security to prevent illegal infiltration and prepare its military for potential contingencies.
The situation also demands a “whole-of-nation” approach, involving not just the government but also civil society, think tanks, and the media, to build a unified response. India’s leadership must clearly convey to Bangladesh that continued instability and hostile actions will have serious consequences. At the same time, India should reaffirm its commitment to supporting a stable and prosperous Bangladesh, emphasizing the shared history and mutual benefits of cooperation.
The stakes are high, and the path ahead is fraught with challenges. Yet, India’s resolve to safeguard its national interests and uphold its values of justice and inclusivity must remain unwavering. Whether through dialogue, economic leverage, or, if necessary, decisive action, India must ensure that the current crisis in Bangladesh does not undermine the region’s peace and stability. The time has come for India to assert its role as a responsible regional power and take the necessary steps to address this critical situation by all possible means.
* Lt Gen Dushyant Singh (Retd) is Director General of Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS)