We have a country that is geopolitically sophisticated, with close ties to the U.S., Japan and Taiwan, and is in a highly strategic location. So who showed up to Palau’s party, and who didn’t?
Ngerulmud, Palau: While much of the world was anticipating the January 20th Inauguration in Washington, D.C., another Inauguration was being held that warrants some deconstruction to understand the less flashy—but important and deep—undercurrents of Indo-Pacific geopolitics.
The January 16th Inaugurations of President Surangel S. Whipps Jr. and Vice President Raynold Oilouch of the Republic of Palau featured some surprising guests and some notable absences.
A Presidential Inauguration is a bit like a high school graduation. Attendees scan the crowds to see who showed up (and who didn’t), who is talking with whom, who came from outside the district, and who got the invites to the cool parties.
But, like a high school graduation, you need a bit of a briefing first to know why it is such a big deal that the head of the chess club and the star football player are sitting together. So, here we go.
TOO POPULAR PALAU
For a country of around 20,000 people, Palauans have lived through an extraordinary amount of geopolitics.
One reason is Palau’s location—southeast of Philippines, in a highly strategic spot. At the end of the 19th century it was claimed by Spain. Then Germany. But the first colonial power to really move in was Japan.
From around 1914 until 1944, Japan had control over the islands and, especially during the 1920s and 1930s, Tokyo worked to set up a civilian government, grow the economy, put in schools and more.
The League of Nations granted Tokyo the “Japanese Mandate”, which included islands across the central Pacific. The town of Koror became Japan’s civilian headquarters for the region. At one time there were more Japanese living in Palau than Palauans. Intermarriage was common and today an estimated 20% of Palauans have Japanese ancestry.
World War II saw brutal inch-by-inch combat between the U.S. and Japan, including on the Palauan island of Peleliu. At the end of the war, the area covered by the Japanese Mandate was given by the United Nations to the United States as a “strategic Trust Territory”.
In 1994, Palau became independent, and maintained close ties to the United States through the Compact of Free Association (COFA). The COFA gives Palauans the right to live and work in the U.S. (including joining the U.S. military), study at local rates in U.S. universities, gives the Palauan government U.S. government support and more. The U.S. is also responsible for Palauan defence, and is in the process of rehabilitating the old World War II airfield on Peleliu, as well as other projects.
While the idea of a Trump Administration offering a COFA to Greenland has been brought up, currently only two other countries have COFAs with the U.S.—neighbouring Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) and the Marshall Islands. All three were part of the Japanese Mandate and Trust Territory.
Palau also recognizes Taiwan, and has been a consistent target of Beijing, including economic warfare, cyber-attacks and Chinese-linked organized crime.
So, we have a country that is geopolitically sophisticated, with close ties to the U.S., Japan and Taiwan, and is in a highly strategic location. Who showed up to Palau’s party—and who didn’t?
INDIA
First, because I know you are wondering, India sent a serious and well received delegation, including Minister of State (MoS) for External Affairs Pabitra Margherita—a first visit by an India MoS for External Affairs to Palau. The delegation also visited Guam and, in another historic first ministerial visit by India, the Federated States of Micronesia. Well done MEA.
THE CHINA FACTOR
The Foreign Minister of Taiwan attended (as did a large Taiwanese business delegation). One of the mostly closely watched dramas of the Inauguration was who would have their photo taken with him. Whomever did was sure to be noted in Beijing, and it could cause them personal and professional trouble.
This was dealt with quickly when—in one of the most geopolitically important and subtle moments of the event—the Foreign Minister of Japan sat on one side of the Foreign Minister of Taiwan and the Indian MoS sat on the other in full view of the cameras as they chatted in a warm and animated manner.
The China factor likely kept some away from the event completely. The President of fellow Compact state, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), skipped the Inauguration, sending instead his Vice President. This was a serious slight, given the close familial relations between Palau and FSM.
FSM recognizes China and suspicions were that Beijing didn’t want the President to attend, and he acquiesced—giving an indication of Beijing’s potential hold over FSM.
The President of the third Compact country, Marshall Islands (which recognizes Taiwan) did attend. As did the Prime Minister of Tuvalu, the third Pacific Island Country that recognizes Taiwan. Good solidarity for democracy on show there.
Another head of government to attend was Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea (PNG), James Marape. That brought to the fore another key element of Pacific politics—religion. While Beijing was undoubtedly displeased that the PM of PNG (which recognizes China) attended the Inauguration, Marape and the President of Palau are from the same religious denomination, and Marape was showing that his ties to his Pacific cousins are stronger than pressure put on by China. It highlighted the no-show by the FSM President even more.
YOU AREN’T SERIOUS—SHE ACTUALLY SHOWED UP?
As an indication of some of the new interest in the Pacific Islands there was a broad range of diplomatic representation in attendance, including the Special Envoy of the UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs to the Caribbean and Pacific States (who came in on his own plane) and Ambassadors from Austria, Australia, Chile, Germany, Korea, Kosovo, Malaysia, Morocco, New Zealand, Norway, Philippines, Serbia, Thailand, Vietnam and—announced to susurrations of the crowd—Russia. It was like that ex-girlfriend from another school showing up to your graduation party.
WHO DID THE U.S. SEND?
First, let’s start with the excuses. It was four days before the U.S. Inauguration and many of the top political players were about to be unemployed. Still, given the U.S. spent much of the Biden administration talking about how important the Pacific Islands (and the Compact states in particular) are to the U.S. it was noted that the highest-ranking person from D.C. to attend was the assistant secretary at the U.S. Department of Insular Affairs. She left her job a few days later.
Top level regional U.S. military leaders (based a three hour flight away) also didn’t attend. Reportedly, the commander for Task Force-Micronesia and the commander of Joint Region Marianas had been called to a meeting in Hawaii with the commander the USINDOPACOM. All were no-shows.
Also, congratulatory messages were read out during the Inauguration, including from the President of India, the Emperor of Japan, the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, the King of the Netherlands, the King of Belgium and others. At this point one might expect a note from President Biden but instead it was Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
DOES IT MATTER IF YOU COME TO THE PARTY?
There are two major problems with this. First, it signalled to all those there—who had made the effort to come—that the U.S. doesn’t take Palau as seriously as they do.
Second, people from D.C. (and even Honolulu) missed a chance for quiet high-level sidebar chats with key people like the Foreign Ministers of Japan and Taiwan, and the Indian delegation. If you aren’t there, the conversations will happen without you, and often about you. Remember high school?
The saving grace for the U.S. is there is an excellent U.S. Ambassador in post—but it was a missed opportunity for D.C. to show respect for Palau, and a leader that worked hard to keep the Compact alive, and was just reelected by his fellow Palauans. It will be noted, and mentioned, by those wishing to sow doubt about the U.S. commitment to the region.
Given the hard work by many in the U.S. and Palau to build the relationship over the years it was, to say the least, unfortunate. But, four days later, there was another inauguration, in another city, and time will tell if things will be different at the next Palauan inauguration.
I don’t know about you, but I remember who thought they were too good to attend our graduation, and who made the effort to come from afar to congratulate us. So, thank you India for showing up. It matters.
* Cleo Paskal is Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies and columnist with The Sunday Guardian.