The BJP has already identified potential future leaders for Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.
New Delhi: There is intense speculation regarding the possible induction into the Union Cabinet of three Bharatiya Janata Party Chief Ministers in the event of the saffron brigade losing the three Hindi-speaking states that recently went to the polls. Most of the exit polls have predicted that the Congress enjoyed a clear edge in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, though doubts over the findings of the agencies responsible for the psephology exercise would continue to remain till the final outcome is officially declared on 11 December by the Election Commission.
Sources in the BJP stated that the party’s central leadership was now looking solely at the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, and would do whatever it would take to enter the electoral arena with a recharged organisational set-up. It is in this context that there is conjecture over the future of the three Chief Ministers—Vasundhara Raje, Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh. The trio is considered indispensible, if one has take into consideration the Parliamentary polls, given their sound comprehension of ground realities. Their participation in the poll process would augment the efforts of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is the most revered political gladiator in the Sangh Parivar.
It is more or less certain that Chouhan, Vasundhara and Raman Singh would be relieved of their state responsibilities once the Lok Sabha confrontation is over. The party’s central leadership has already identified potential future leaders who could be gradually groomed to take over the pivotal responsibility. The three are considered to be appointees of the Atal Bihari Vapayee era, and though Modi has allowed them to continue in office, for him and Amit Shah, they are considered replaceable in the visible future.
Sources said that the BJP’s compulsion at this stage was that the Union Cabinet was packed with leaders who belong to the Rajya Sabha. Now with Sushma Swaraj and Uma Bharti declaring that they would not be in the fray in 2019 and with the sudden passing away of Ananth Kumar, the Sangh’s leadership would have to look for other options. The three CMs have served the party with distinction, and if they join the Union Council of Ministers, they would bring to the table their immense experience and deep understanding of how a government works.
It was in September last year that Modi had gone in for his third reshuffle, wherein he promoted four ministers, including Nirmala Sitharaman, Piyush Goyal, Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi and Dharmendra Pradhan to Cabinet rank. In addition, he inducted nine Ministers of State while simultaneously accepting the resignations of six others. The hypothesis in the political circles was that the fourth re-jig of the Cabinet may take place prior to the winter session, but it appears that it would happen either midway or after Parliament adjourns in January.
In fact, an expansion anytime now would enable the Prime Minister to bring in the best possible talent, without having to worry about getting them a berth in the Rajya Sabha, since a minister has to be inducted in either House of Parliament within six months of his appointment. The Lok Sabha polls would take place sometime in April and May, and, therefore, no new minister would need to be brought into either House.
However, the BJP’s adversaries view the possibility of a reshuffle differently. They believe that it is the Prime Minister’s Office that controls the government and even if the best talents are roped in, they would have to play second fiddle to the all powerful PMO. To illustrate their argument, it is pointed out that the foreign policy is enunciated not in the Ministry of External Affairs but in the PMO. Similarly, key decisions regarding other ministries including Finance, Home and Defence are initiated only after the bureaucracy in the PMO gives a green signal. In September last, Home Minister Rajnath Singh had offered to quit following reports that he could be shifted. However, he was persuaded to stay on. Therefore, the party’s adversaries believe that it does not matter who is heading which ministry, since it is the PMO alone which calls the shots.
Within the Sangh Parivar, where there is a growing unease over the selection of the nominees for the Lok Sabha elections, it is thought that the party should function in the manner in which it did in 2014. In other words, it should be more inclusive, rather than ignoring the rights of the elected representatives to be heard before they are substituted. In this context, several BJP MPs have already started looking for greener pastures elsewhere. At least one Lok Sabha MP from Delhi is understood to have commenced a dialogue with other parties. Earlier in the week, Savitri Bai Phule, the BJP MP from Bahraich in Uttar Pradesh exited the saffron brigade, citing the discrimination against Dalits as her principal reason.
The ray of a realistic hope is that Modi continues to be the singular undisputed leader of the country, whose mass appeal stretches way beyond any of his rivals. He is a master campaigner, who does not leave anything to chance, but pours his entire energy in putting across his party’s point of view. He is a relentless spearhead, whose plus point is that he does not hesitate in treading unexplored paths. It is said that even the best of generals sometimes have to taste defeat, in order to make them complete military leaders. A defeat in the Assembly polls would only spur Modi to achieve greater heights, provided the people continue to back him.