After declaration of Channi as the CM face, there have been reports that Jats may turn away from the Congress.
New Delhi: The Congress has had a difficult time declaring its CM candidate after its advisors nudged the party leadership that confused voters may support the AAP if a Punjab CM face is not declared soon. However, after the declaration of Channi as the CM face, there have been reports that Jats may turn away from the Congress. But the party has consolidated its Dalit vote bank. The declaration has also eased some pressure from Congress, but the coming electoral battle involves more than half a dozen political parties.
A political analyst, who has a team working in Punjab elections, said that there will be a hung Assembly and the Dalits will vote for both AAP and Congress.
Political observers say the declaration of Channi would have made a difference only if he would have been a unanimous candidate for the CM post, but due to another claimant (Navjot Singh Sidhu) being dropped from the CM candidacy, it has given rise to resentment in the Sidhu camp that has led to a churn in the Congress from within. A political researcher in Punjab said, “There is not much accord within the party right now as Sidhu’s wife has come out in the open and spoken against Rahul Gandhi’s decision, that Sidhu would have been the right choice for the CM candidate.” The latest development has renewed the narrative of “the party is fighting within itself” among opposition parties and boost the narrative that the party is trying to build on Dalits’ support. However, ground reports suggest that more people are in favour of Channi. The Sunday Guardian talked to some poll strategists in the Majha belt of Punjab, who have been on the ground since three months. They have found that Congress has started to gain momentum in most of the urban seats of Amritsar, including Atari and Majitha. And there is an upsurge among SC voters supporting Congress in the area.
A political analyst who has been collecting intelligence reports of most of the constituencies in Doaba in Punjab, which also has the highest Dalit population, while seeking anonymity, said, “Everybody is thinking that it is a 50-50% show between AAP and Congress. But, it is going to be a one-sided show. Channi has intensified his rallies from Tuesday when he went to Batala. His presence and his oratory skills have a very big impact in Punjab. The consequential part about him is that he connects with the masses. After getting the field reports, it is clear that Congress may get a clear majority here. Channi is going to be a major reason for that one-sided majority.”
Punjab is divided into three belts, Malwa, which has 69 of 117 Assembly seats, followed by 25 in Majha and 23 in Doaba. In the last Assembly elections of 2017, Congress had won 40 seats in Malwa, 22 seats in Majha, and 15 seats in Doaba and formed the government on 77 seats.
A zonal in-charge overseeing and analysing the reports of 15 constituencies, told The Sunday Guardian on condition of anonymity, “Some of the voters who did not want to vote have already started supporting Channi after he was declared the CM candidate. He being declared as CM will turn out to be a very big factor if Congress wins.”
A poll strategist said, “In every report, Congress is seen as a dominant force right now.” He added: “Our survey is going on in all the SC villages regarding sentiment towards Charanjit Singh Channi. And among all the SC voters, 60% of the inclination is towards the Congress. However, the increase is only seen among Dalit voters who comprise 32% of the state.”